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Adam Smith famously observed a tight connection between geographic features, the extent of the market, and economic development. In recent decades, scholars have used GIS technologies applied to latitude-longitude grid cells to operationalize these hypotheses.
Authors' note: We would like to thank Jowei Chen, Vincenzo Galasso, Saar Golde, Karen Jusko, Brian Knight, Frances Lee, Jonathan Rodden, Jonathan Wand, and the participants of Stanford University's Workshop in Statistical Modeling and American Empirical Seminar for valuable comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank Fred Wollens for his excellent research assistance.
In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day.
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