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Articles by Ryan Manuel
Listening to Chinese whispers shielded Beijing from COVID-19 blame
China was wracked with unprecedented anti-zero-COVID protests in late November 2022. They started with a fire in Urumqi city, Xinjiang. At least 10 people perished after not being allowed to leave the building due to COVID-19 restrictions. Local street demonstrations followed this tragedy. The next day, local authorities declared that the city had been rid of COVID-19 at the community level and issued a number of tone-deaf statements about the need for individual protection.
The Changing Face of Chinese Governance
What you need to know During his first two terms in office, Xi sent signals that created a range of mixed incentives that will guide Chinese governance over the next five years. By Ryan Manuel Chinese President Xi Jinping had only just launched his third term in power when questions about his leadership began to circulate at home and abroad. China’s complete turnaround on its zero-Covid policy was so rapid and extraordinary that it caught almost everyone by surprise.
La Cina e il volto mutevole della governance — L'Indro
Il Presidente cinese Xi Jinping aveva appena lanciato il suo terzo mandato al potere quando le domande sulla sua leadership sono iniziate a circolare in patria e all’estero. La completa inversione di tendenza della Cina sulla sua politica zero-COVID è stata così rapida e straordinaria che ha colto quasi tutti di sorpresa. Ma la correzione di rotta della Cina è stata segnalata ben prima che la politica cambiasse nel dicembre 2022.
The changing face of Chinese governance
Chinese President Xi Jinping had only just launched his third term in power when questions about his leadership began to circulate at home and abroad. China’s complete turnaround on its zero-Covid policy was so rapid and extraordinary that it caught almost everyone by surprise. But China’s course correction was signaled well before policy shifted in December 2022.
The changing face of Chinese governance
Author: Ryan Manuel, Bilby Chinese President Xi Jinping had only just launched his third term in power when questions about his leadership began to circulate at home and abroad. China’s complete turnaround on its zero-COVID policy was so rapid and extraordinary that it caught almost everyone by surprise. But China’s course correction was signalled well before policy shifted in December 2022.
Listening to Chinese whispers shielded Beijing from COVID-19 blame
China was wracked with unprecedented anti-zero-COVID protests in late November 2022. They started with a fire in Urumqi city, Xinjiang. At least 10 people perished after not being allowed to leave the building due to COVID-19 restrictions. Local street demonstrations followed this tragedy. The next day, local authorities declared that the city had been rid of COVID-19 at the community level and issued a number of tone-deaf statements about the need for individual protection.
Commentary: Listening to Chinese whispers shielded Beijing from COVID-19 blame
Notably, the state response was not nearly as harsh, repressive or even coordinated as external commentary suggests. Instead, protests were dissipated through control of social media platforms and through relocating protesters. Following this there have been fewer reports of activities. The protests are unlikely to change the regime, but they may have triggered changes in China’s COVID-19 policy. Why? Because they allowed Beijing to change its policy.
China’s Covid protests not as meaningful as portrayed
China was wracked with unprecedented “anti-zero-Covid” protests in late November 2022. They started with a fire in Urumqi city, Xinjiang. At least 10 people perished after not being allowed to leave the building due to Covid-19 restrictions. Local street demonstrations followed this tragedy. The next day, local authorities declared that the city had been rid of Covid-19 at the community level and issued a number of tone-deaf statements about the need for individual protection.
Listening to Chinese whispers shielded Beijing from COVID-19 blame
Author: Ryan Manuel, Bilby China was wracked with unprecedented anti-zero-COVID protests in late November 2022. They started with a fire in Urumqi city, Xinjiang. At least 10 people perished after not being allowed to leave the building due to COVID-19 restrictions. Local street demonstrations followed this tragedy. The next day, local authorities declared that the […] The post Listening to Chinese whispers shielded Beijing from COVID-19 blame first appeared on East Asia Forum.
Listening to Chinese whispers shielded Beijing from COVID-19 blame
Author: Ryan Manuel, Bilby China was wracked with unprecedented anti-zero-COVID protests in late November 2022. They started with a fire in Urumqi city, Xinjiang. At least 10 people perished after not being allowed to leave the building due to COVID-19 restrictions. Local street demonstrations followed this tragedy.
Australia begins to step it up in the northeast Indian Ocean
Australia’s focus on building the India relationship has led to the relative neglect of other important Indian Ocean states. This has left a hole in its Indo Pacific strategy. Last month, Foreign Minister Marise Payne announced a raft of new Australian initiatives in the northeast Indian Ocean as a move towards Australia’s enhanced engagement in that region. It may not yet be an “Indian Ocean Step-up”, but at least it’s a move in the right direction.
Palau faces the dragon
In 2015, tourism officials from the tiny Micronesian island nation of Palau likely scratched their heads in bewilderment at incoming figures on visitor arrivals. A record number of tourists had touched down that year in the archipelago, but more perplexing was the figure of 91,174 visitors from China. In 2008, only 634 Chinese visitors had travelled to Palau.
Digital authoritarianism not just a China problem
According to 2019 data from the World Trade Organisation, China is the largest global supplier of telecommunications equipment (generating US$296 billion compared to US$169 billion for the whole of the European Union) as well as office and telecom equipment (US$633 billion compared to US$363 billion for the whole of the European Union).
Making supply chains great again | East Asia Forum
12 October 2020 Author: Editorial Board, ANU When the ‘factory of the world’ shut down in February as Wuhan and then soon after much of China went into lockdown from COVID-19, manufacturing supply chains were affected globally. For many, this demonstrated the vulnerabilities in supply chains and the danger of so many of them going through one country. It was a reminder of how interconnected economies are and how disruptions can spread rapidly to other countries through complex production systems.
Resilient supply chains can inoculate against vaccine nationalism | East Asia Forum
11 October 2020 Authors: John WH Denton and Damien Bruckard, International Chamber of Commerce COVID-19 has disrupted supply chains around the world. But despite the unprecedented economic shock, supply chains have proved remarkably robust, providing a vital lifeline of medical supplies, food and other essentials. As governments focus on making supply chains more resilient, they would be wise to neither overstate the problem nor understate the private sector’s response.
Can ASEAN centrality weather the US–China storm? | East Asia Forum
10 October 2020 Author: Mark J Valencia, National Institute for South China Sea Studies The US–China contest for regional domination was front and centre at the September round of ASEAN-hosted talks. In the run up to and at the meetings, China and the United States sharply criticised each other and appealed to Southeast Asian countries for support. In response, the ASEAN Regional Forum Chair bravely reaffirmed ASEAN’s centrality in regional security affairs.
Short-term nuclear stability on the Korean Peninsula | East Asia Forum
10 October 2020 Author: Liang Tuang Nah, RSIS In the short term, North Korea is unlikely to resume nuclear warhead or long-range missile tests. Three of the more salient reasons for Pyongyang’s restraint are the effectiveness of sanctions, societal and political realities in the North and the preservation of bargaining prospects.
Taiwan's economic challenges beyond COVID-19 | East Asia Forum
9 October 2020 Author: Min-Hua Chiang, NUS East Asian Institute Taiwan’s economy has held up relatively well thanks to a quick and effective response to COVID-19. The latest official figures showed that Taiwan’s GDP in the first half of the year grew by 0.78 per cent, year-on-year. Domestic demand contributed 0.51 per cent and net exports made up 0.27 per cent. Apart from the lingering impact of the global pandemic, Taiwan’s economy is also challenged by the uncertainty of US–China relations.
New Caledonia's second independence referendum is a wake-up call | East Asia Forum
8 October 2020 Author: Denise Fisher, ANU For the second time in two years, on 4 October, longstanding New Caledonian residents elected to stay with France. But the large and growing indigenous Kanak and Pacific islander support base for independence cannot be ignored. There are strategic implications for France, Australia and the Pacific region, beyond what this second ‘no’ to independence might seem to suggest.
Southeast Asian airlines drop from the sky | East Asia Forum
8 October 2020 Author: Thanavutd Chutiphongdech, Srinakharinwirot University Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Southeast Asia was one of the fastest growing markets for air transport. But despite being buoyed by high demand, a deregulated airline market squeezed the profit margins of most Southeast Asian airlines, leaving them particularly vulnerable to the economic fallout from COVID-19.
Taiwan's refugee policy offers little help to Hongkongers | East Asia Forum
7 October 2020 Author: Kevin Ting-chen Sun, Taipei Since the implementation of the draconian Hong Kong security law in June, many Hong Kong protesters feel forced to leave out of fear of reprisal from Beijing. With few other options, the international community has watched helplessly the mass arrests in Hong Kong. Though many protesters see Taiwan as an ideal refuge, Taipei has been reluctant to relax entry limits or extend asylum. Taipei’s gestures have so far been largely symbolic.
How to assess China's participation in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative | East Asia Forum
7 October 2020 Author: Ye Yu, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies On 15 April 2020, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors called for all bilateral official creditors to suspend debt service payment for the 73 poorest countries from 1 May to the end of 2020. This G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) is probably the most important collective action that the G20 has taken in response to COVID-19.
South Korea paves the way for an eco-friendly Asia | East Asia Forum
5 October 2020 Authors: Jackson Ewing, Duke University and Minyoung Shin, Sunrise Project In a 7 September speech for the International Day for Clean Air, South Korean President Moon Jae-in called climate change ‘the most important problem in our generation’ and announced that the country would 30 coal power plants by 2034.
ASEAN stress-tested by big power rivalry | East Asia Forum
5 October 2020 Author: Editorial Board, ANU The relationships between ASEAN, China and the United States are under pressure in a world in which the global order is changing dramatically. This change threatens Asia’s shared prosperity and security. It is a product of the big shifts in the structure of global power driven by the success of that order, with the rise of China seen within the United States and elsewhere no longer as a cause for celebration but of deepening disquiet.
ASEAN members can still have their cake and eat it too | East Asia Forum
4 October 2020 Author: David Camroux, Sciences Po In justifying his Brexit posture, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson explained that, when it comes to the EU ‘cake’, he was ‘pro having it and pro eating it’. ‘Cakeism’ also forms the approach of the ten ASEAN countries to their own regional arrangement. Unlike the European Union, however, membership of ASEAN has minimal cost to national sovereignty while also providing a veneer of regional solidarity to promote national interests.
Nobody ever said Kim Il-sung could teleport | East Asia Forum
3 October 2020 Author: Martin Weiser, Seoul Since April, academics and politicians in South Korea have been rushing to address the problem of false reporting on North Korea. Progressive legislators held a discussion with civil society in May on how to respond to fake news on North Korea, while Kyungnam University’s Institute of Far Eastern Studies recently published a report and then a whole book on the topic.
Indonesia shows clean cooking saves lives | East Asia Forum
3 October 2020 Author: Imelda, Carlos III University of Madrid From 2010 to 2018, Indonesia doubled the proportion of its population with access to clean cooking — from 40 to 80 per cent, according to the International Energy Agency’s Energy Progress Report. This is an impressive achievement compared to India, which moved from 30 to 50 per cent, and to Sub-Saharan Africa, which is still below 20 per cent.
Beware of spoilers in Afghanistan | East Asia Forum
2 October 2020 Author: Imtiaz Gul, CRSS Islamabad The 11 September launch of intra-Afghan negotiations in Doha is yet to translate into formal dialogue between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The embattled Afghan stakeholders are still labouring over modalities of talks before they can get into the nitty-gritty of the future political map and things are unlikely to get much easier. Unusual euphoria accompanied the ceremony in Doha.
In the interest of Indian banks and borrowers | East Asia Forum
1 October 2020 Authors: Ila Patnaik and Radhika Pandey, NIPFP India’s economy contracted by 23.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hampered economic activity. To support growth, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut official interest rates by 115 basis points in 2020. A slew of liquidity enhancing measures, including a reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), were announced to nudge banks to lend to productive sectors of the economy.
Future-proofing Japan's labour market recovery | East Asia Forum
1 October 2020 Author: Sachiko Kuroda, Waseda University Japan’s labour market faces many challenges in recovering from COVID-19. Government reforms that enable workers to transition into different industries and those that safeguard work–life balance for people working remotely will be critical in any post-COVID-19 recovery. Japan’s unemployment rate was low before the pandemic, sitting below 2.5 per cent due to labour shortages caused by population decline.
Policy pragmatism key to Macau's COVID-19 success | East Asia Forum
30 September 2020 Author: Ricardo C S Siu, University of Macau Macau’s economy has long been facing a dilemma between dramatic economic performance built on its casino and tourism sectors and a lack of variety in its industrial composition. Business activities related to gaming generated 50.5 per cent of the economy’s total industrial output in 2018. Tourism-related businesses such as hotels, retail, restaurants and entertainment accounted for another 12 to 15 per cent.
Japan leading global health governance | East Asia Forum
30 September 2020 Author: Kayo Takuma, Tokyo Metropolitan University A pandemic in a globalised world affects the world economy, daily life and national defence capacities. COVID-19 is a global crisis and responding to it requires global leadership and international cooperation. In contrast to the responses to AIDS and Ebola, the response to COVID-19 lacks international cooperation, not to mention US leadership.
Indonesia fights COVID-19 on a budget | East Asia Forum
29 September 2020 Authors: Manggi Habir, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute and Wisnu Wardana, Bank Danamon The COVID-19 pandemic has indiscriminately disrupted economies worldwide, hurting government tax revenues and raising fears of a deep recession with dark social and political consequences. Desperate to keep their economies humming, governments are launching expansive stimulus programs and ratcheting up spending.
COVID-19 and the Asian meat complex | East Asia Forum
29 September 2020 Author: Arve Hansen and Jostein Jakobsen, University of Oslo While parts of East Asia have long been home to meat-intensive diets, the last couple of decades have seen the production, trade and consumption of meat increase dramatically. The region is undergoing a dramatic process of what geographer Tony Weis has dubbed ‘meatification’.
Re-energising Japan's plans for power and climate change | East Asia Forum
28 September 2020 Author: Mika Ohbayashi, Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo Japan urgently needs a strategy to power its transition to renewable energy. The accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 prompted a major shift in Japan’s energy policy and the implementation of a number of energy reforms, including efforts to restructure the power system. The restructuring started in the mid-1990s, but it had made little progress.
In Indonesia, democracy means loving thine enemy | East Asia Forum
28 September 2020 Author: Editorial Board, ANU At a time when the forces of populist nativism are on the rise in established democracies, many liberals in the West are being forced to reconsider questions that have been marginal since the days when fascist and communist movements were last a part of political life. At what point do liberal norms become a liability for democracy when they are abused by demagogues to undermine the tolerance and social cohesion that underpins it?
Jokowi's repressive pluralism | East Asia Forum
27 September 2020 Author: Greg Fealy, ANU Over the past four years, the government of Indonesian President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo has been conducting a concerted and systematic campaign of repression against Islamists. This may be welcome news for Indonesia’s western partners — especially Australia, where surveys repeatedly show that many fear Indonesia’s perceived rising Islamic conservatism and militancy.
How Abe's diplomatic activism elevated Vietnam–Japan ties | East Asia Forum
26 September 2020 Author: Xuan Dung Phan, RSIS Following former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s abrupt resignation last month, Vietnamese media reminisced fondly about an affable moment during his 2017 visit: Abe and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc walked around Hoi An, a former trading hub for Japanese merchants and home to a small community of Japanese traders in the late 16th century.
US–China rivalry ramps up pressure on the Pacific islands | East Asia Forum
25 September 2020 Author: Denghua Zhang, ANU It is said that when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. This may play out in Australia’s immediate neighbourhood. As the US–China geostrategic competition intensifies, Pacific island countries find themselves caught in the middle. The latest round of the US–China rivalry is playing out on many fronts, from diplomacy to trade, investment, technology and military affairs.
Singapore's road to recovery | East Asia Forum
25 September 2020 Author: Faizal Bin Yahya, NUS COVID-19 has severely impacted Singapore’s trade and economy. But the virus is also proving to be a catalyst for exploring alternate development pathways and for motivating Singapore’s greater integration into the ASEAN region. Singapore’s business activities have been curbed due to social distancing measures that have adversely impacted the profit margins of firms.
Lessons from Kerala's COVID-19 response | East Asia Forum
24 September 2020 Authors: M Niaz Asadullah, University of Malaya and Antonio Savoia, University of Manchester Compared to Southeast Asia, COVID-19 success stories are few and far between in South Asia. Country performance is also less varied — India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal are all struggling to flatten the curve. One exception to this trend in infection and fatality rates is Kerala.
Domestic concerns shape China’s policy strategies
In the US–China relationship, ideology now trumps interests. In July, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s speech on China at the Nixon Library repeatedly referred to Chinese leader Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (‘the Party’) rather than as the president of China. Referring only to Xi’s power over the Party in this way is part of a US government drive to appear anti-Party rather than anti-China.
North Korea's evolving cyber warfare strategy | East Asia Forum
24 September 2020 Author: Michael Raska, RSIS While South Korea and the United States focus on North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons and ballistic missile capabilities, the alliance must increasingly prioritise countering the development of North Korea’s cyber capabilities.
COVID-19 exposes gaps in South Korea's social security system | East Asia Forum
23 September 2020 Author: Jae-jin Yang, Yonsei University South Korea has experienced three economic crises since its democratisation in 1987: the Asian financial crisis (1997–1999), the global financial crisis (2008–2009) and the current COVID-19 economic crisis. Like the two crises before it, the COVID-19 economic crisis has given renewed impetus for expanding social welfare support in South Korea.
Modi's military procurement missteps | East Asia Forum
22 September 2020 Author: Bharat Karnad, Centre for Policy Research As part of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘self-reliant India’ policy, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh issued a list of 101 defence items in August with different timelines beyond which their import will be banned, with a second list soon to follow.
US political decline means more 'ninja diplomacy' | East Asia Forum
22 September 2020 Author: James L Schoff, Carnegie Endowment Bitter and deepening political division in the United States is a serious challenge for Japanese foreign policy — a challenge that is likely to grow in the coming year amid political dysfunction and the impact of COVID-19. US political decline is not a new phenomenon but it is becoming more acute under President Donald Trump, who has taken an already politicised US electorate and amplified it.
Domestic policies key to the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative | East Asia Forum
21 September 2020 Author: Ken Heydon, LSE Reports are circulating of a trilateral exploration by Japan, India and Australia of a ‘Supply Chain Resilience Initiative’ (SCRI) seeking to secure supply chains and reduce dependence on China. The initiative — seemingly instigated by Japan — will likely be broached at an India–Japan summit in coming weeks. It is envisaged to eventually extend to ASEAN and the United States. The initiative prompts some critical questions.
The multilateral system: use it, or lose it | East Asia Forum Original
21 September 2020 Author: Editorial Board, ANU Asia’s businesses and households rely on a global system of rules and institutions to do business overseas. That global system is under attack, and Asian governments are yet to mobilise to stop it. Governments in the region weaken the system every time they preference short-term bilateral band-aids over long-term multilateral solutions; from managing US–China tensions to the response to COVID-19.
The AIIB must remain an anchor for consensus | East Asia Forum
20 September 2020 Author: Chris Legg, Melbourne The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) recently marked four-and-a-half years of operations at its 2020 Annual Meeting. Hosted virtually by China, the meeting was attended by representatives of its 103 full and prospective members, reappointing its impressive President Jin Liqun for a second five-year term.
Timor-Leste's precarious route to development | East Asia Forum
19 September 2020 Author: Fredrik Sjöholm, Lund University Timor-Leste is going through turbulent times. On the political front, the old conflict between former prime ministers Mari Alkatiri and Xanana Gusmao continues to generate parliamentary reshufflings, political deadlocks and uncertainty. All public budgets since 2018 have been delayed, causing declines in public expenditure.
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