Sam Ratner
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I focus primarily on conflict in Mozambique, but will also cover regional issues and broader security concerns that affect the region
Policy director @WinWithoutWar, working to enact a more just and progressive US foreign policy. Formerly @ACLEDINFO and @ZitamarNews. He/him. Views my own.
Articles by Sam Ratner
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Investment Summary Net Operating Income (NOI) minus mortgage payments. Calculation: NOI - Mortgage Payments Monthly Cash Flow -$205 Capitalization Rate is a rate of return that compares the yearly Net Operating Income (NOI) to the market value. Calculation: NOI / Market Value Cap Rate 5.5% Annual Cash Flow / Cash Invested Calculation: Annual cash flow divided by initial cash invested. Cash-on-Cash Return -3.1% Net Operating Income (NOI) divided by total debt payments.
Can the police crack down on kidnappers they way they do on demonstrators?
Newsletter — police — PRM — kidnapping — Nini Satar — MSF — Ibraimo Mbaruco — Beira-Machipanda railway line — Fuel prices And: government-appointed commission agrees district elections should not go ahead Good afternoon. Another large ransom has apparently been paid to a Mozambican kidnap gang, to secure the release of a businessman taken a month and a half ago.
The Global Fragility Act in Mozambique: Small-Scale US Peacebuilding Policy
Cabo Ligado — Cabo Delgado — United States of America — Global Fragility Act (GFA) — PREDIN The new plan represents a step forward for US policy in Mozambique, but will face the same pressures that all other donor country programs face in Mozambique, and with a fraction of the financial resources By Sam Ratner, Policy Director, Win Without War The Global Fragility Act (GFA) is a United States law passed in 2019.
Biden's trip to make up with Mohammed bin Salman won't help anyone in Saudi Arabia or America Original
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This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. With six attempted or successful coups in Africa in 2021, and the military takeover in Burkina Faso in January, the sudden proliferation of undemocratic shifts in state control has reignited a series of debates about coups. What causes them? Are they predictable? We’ll investigate new research on these questions this week and next in Deep Dive.
Cabo Delgado insurgency trends to track in 2022
By Sam Ratner, for the Cabo Ligado monthly report for January 2022, published in full here As we look ahead to 2022, three trends from the previous year stand out as being particularly important for understanding the medium-term future of the conflict in northern Mozambique. Each represents a thread that analysts should be tracking, as they will play major roles in determining how the conflict will unfold going forward.
Cabo Ligado Monthly: January 2022 — Cabo Ligado
January Situation Summary The insurgency in Northern Mozambique contracted geographically in January, but lost little of its capacity for violence. At the end of December, it seemed as though the story of the conflict heading into 2022 was the insurgency’s westward expansion into Niassa province, where it conducted a series of attacks and faced little resistance from security forces.
If not police, what? Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here.
Political Climate: Part II
Words: Sam Ratner Date: November 18th, 2021 This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from Inkstick Media and The World. Subscribe here. Last week on Deep Dive, we looked at new research on why people who are worried about the security implications of the shift toward renewable energy need to take a deep breath.
Opportunity Seizure: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from Inkstick Media and The World. Subscribe here. In last week’s Deep Dive, we looked at new research on how states are using the opportunity provided by the COVID-19 pandemic to expand their repressive repertoires.
Opportunity seizure: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Scholars of government repression generally think of repressive policies as arising from two basic impulses: The desire to crush active dissent, and the desire to prevent future dissent from arising. Basically, in this framework, all repression is about ensuring regime survival by using the power of the state to quash opposition.
Struggle for self-determination: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. In honor of Indigenous Peoples Day, this week and next on Deep Dive we’ll engage with new research on self-determination, a cause long championed by Indigenous leaders and activists that became the watchword for independence movements around the world. Related: The limits of non-violence: Part I It’s been a tough few months for symbols of Catalan independence.
How to train your dragoon: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week in Deep Dive, we looked at new research on how the US military succeeds and fails at changing its own officers’ attitudes about civilian protection. This week, we’ll turn to the story of what happens when military training becomes an export product, and the political processes that can set in motion for the country doing the exporting.
How we make decisions about politics in the aftermath of conflict
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. In last week’s Deep Dive, we looked at new research on how individuals make decisions in moments of peril, when the threat of political violence is literally at their doorstep. This week, we’ll look at how people make decisions about their political lives in the aftermath of conflict, and how the conflict shapes those decisions.
How we make snap decisions in conflict
Politics is an inherently social activity, and political science tends to focus mostly on the actions of groups. Yet one common consequence of conflict is the atomization of groups — the creation of an environment so chaotic that individuals are forced to make important choices without the benefit of a group decision. This week and next on Deep Dive, we’ll look at research on how individuals — not leaders, but regular people caught in the storm of conflict — make decisions when violence looms.
Checking in on the pandemic: Part II
Last week on Deep Dive, we looked at how local leaders in Brazil were able to affect public health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, even in the face of resistance from the national government. This week, we’ll examine new research on the other side of the ledger — people who looked at the pandemic and asked, “How can I exploit this?” We’re going to delve into cybercrime in the age of COVID-19.
Checking in on the pandemic: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic produced a flurry of social science research, some of which we covered in earlier Deep Dives. Earlier on, it seemed like the pandemic might be a discrete event, something that would end shortly after infection rates spiked or a vaccine was produced.
The limits of non-violence: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week on Deep Dive, we looked at new research on how the putative advantages of nonviolent civil resistance against the state disappear when the people doing the resisting are ethnic minorities within the state. This week, we’ll see how much that lesson applies when people are resisting rebel governance, rather than state governance.
The limits of non-violence: Part I
In the last decade, interest in non-violent resistance as a way for people to secure major reforms has increased among activists and policymakers alike. Research showing that civil resistance efforts are more effective at achieving political aims than violent movements sparked efforts from both grassroots organizers and state-sponsored democracy promoters to capture the apparent non-violent advantage.
Family in conflict: Part II
Last week on Deep Dive, we looked at how family networks shape the decisions of combatants in civil wars. This week we’ll zoom out beyond the immediate conflict zone to look at new research on how family networks allow people who migrate to escape conflict to survive in their new homes. For families who sent sons and daughters to work abroad — on construction sites in Beirut or restaurants in Riyadh, for example — remittances made up half their annual income on average.
Family in conflict: Part I
Ever since the field of international relations moved on from being the narrow study of European dynastic politics, scholars have paid relatively little attention to the role of family in conflict and security. This week and next, we'll highlight new research about how family networks shape individual decisions about security.
Externalities of intervention: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly foreign policy newsletter from Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. The core mission of peacekeeping operations is, helpfully, right there in the name. It turns out, however, that the introduction of a bunch of armed foreigners — even those with the best intentions — can have some unpredictable side-effects for the host country beyond simply preventing the resumption of conflict.
What's a border anyway? Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. What actually constitutes the state? When we say that a state has done something — or even that a state exists — who or what are we talking about? Luckily, social scientists have a lot to say on those questions as well. This week and next, Critical State takes a deep dive into new research on defining an important component of stateness — borders.
Checking In On Democratic Peace: Part II
Words: Sam Ratner Date: June 16th, 2021 This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from Inkstick Media and The World. Subscribe here. Last week, we looked at new research on the aspects of democratic institutions that contribute to preventing the outbreak of civil war. This week, we’ll return to the core of democratic peace theory: The idea that democratic states don’t fight wars with one another.
Checking in on democratic peace: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week, we looked at new research on the aspects of democratic institutions that contribute to preventing the outbreak of civil war. This week, we’ll return to the core of democratic peace theory — the idea that democratic states don’t fight wars with one another.
Checking in on democratic peace: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. “Democratic peace” is a concept that was once a shibboleth in international security policy and has since become the opposite: A shibomore. International democracy promotion efforts grew in the 1990s and 2000s under the axiom that countries with democratic institutions simply would not fight wars with one another.
Sexual violence in conflict: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. A new article in the Annual Review of Political Science by field leaders Ragnhild Nordås and Dara Kay Cohen takes stock of the incredible progress made in recent years in understanding when, where, and why wartime sexual violence takes place.
The stuff of life and death: Part II
Last week, Critical State took a deep dive into the objects that victims of human rights abuses carry with them in their long search for reparations and commemoration of their losses. This week, Critical State continues its examination of physicality in security studies by reading new research on the weaponization of water. Related: The stuff of life and death: Part I Today, most combatants recoil at the use of water as a weapon, and only the most depraved deploy it.
The blame game in international politics: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Parenting and politics often intersect when it comes to apportioning blame. When things go wrong, politics can help determine where fault lies. And that’s as true among kids — just ask any older sibling if they ever ended up taking the fall for something their younger siblings did — as it is among states.
Gender matters in the military: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week, Critical State took a deep dive into how the arrival of women in combat arms specialties in the US military has changed the way the US public views women on the front lines of war. This week, it's a deep dive into recent research on the state of US opinion about gender in foreign policy overall in the years since the gender integration of combat units.
Gender matters in the military
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. January marked five years since the US military opened up combat arms billets to women. That shift changed the way women are treated within the military and the way the US government thinks about gender and security.
The leftovers: What happens to foreign policy in power transitions? Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week on Deep Dive, Critical State looked at new research on the situations where state leadership transitions cause a spike in the likelihood of war. This week, we dig into a more optimistic take on state leadership turnover.
The leftovers: What happens to foreign policy in power transitions? Part I
As negotiations about negotiations about resurrecting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement on Iran’s nuclear program drag on, a clear question has emerged on the US side: When presidential administrations turn over, how much fealty does the new administration owe to the international agreements of the old one?
When it rains, it wars: Tracking intersecting security threats, Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week, Critical State began a deep dive into interactions between different forms of insecurity with an article about how of post-electoral tensions condition sexual violence against civilians. This week, it turns from threats facing civilians to threats facing combatants.
When it rains, it wars: Tracking intersecting security threats, Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Security threats experienced by civilians almost never crop up one by one. Instead, most people experience many sources of insecurity at once. Yet, security studies — with its preference for simplicity — often focuses on sources of insecurity in isolation.
COVID-19 and the limits of state power: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week, Critical State looked at new research on how local officials in the Philippines are coping with COVID-19 in areas where rebel groups violently contest the central state’s control.
COVID-19 and the limits of state power: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. A pandemic should be a near-perfect showcase for what a state can do. Pandemic response requires generating large amounts of information about everything from infection rates to hospital capacity. It demands collective action and widespread communication to understand and make clear the actions necessary to contain the disease.
Climate and Human Security: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from Inkstick Media and The World. Subscribe here. Last week, Deep Dive began to look at the Journal of Peace Research’s special issue on climate change and security by learning about the struggles faced by urbanizing climate refugees. This week, the focus is on attention to the countryside by examining how climate change affects food production and how conflicts over food arise.
Climate and human security: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week, Deep Dive began to look at the Journal of Peace Research’s special issue on climate change and security by learning about the struggles faced by urbanizing climate refugees. This week, the focus is on attention to the countryside by examining how climate change affects food production and how conflicts over food arise.
Climate and human security: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. When the Journal of Peace Research dedicates a whole special issue to the security implications of climate change, Critical State is required to cover it. Those are just the rules. This week and next, we’ll dig into articles from the special issue that increase our understanding of how a warming climate will change patterns of political violence.
Political science of the periphery: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week, Critical State took a deep dive into research on how states' difficulties with extending power into borderlands changes how they make and implement policies for those areas. This week looks at research on what happens when a state makes a major effort to incorporate borderland residents into the core state identity.
Political science of the periphery: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. You know the state, right? It’s got borders, and a monopoly on the legitimate use of violence within them? On the international stage, it acts on an equal legal basis to all the other states? It has a flag?
Civilian labor in reconstruction: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. For policymakers involved in conflict resolution, ceasefire announcements and peace treaty signing ceremonies usually bring some well-deserved relaxation. With the fighting over, they have time to pop some champagne, get some sleep and start writing their memoir about how pivotal they were to the peace process.
Federalism in violence: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. Last week, Critical State looked at how the distance between national governments and the people who actually implement their repressive policies both enables and limits the violence states can do to their own people.
Federalism in Violence: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from Inkstick Media and The World. Subscribe here. When the state makes up its sovereign mind to do some repressing, it is often not the central nervous system of national government — the national police or secret service — that actually carry out purges or mass arrests.
Federalism in violence: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. When the state makes up its sovereign mind to do some repressing, it is often not the central nervous system of national government — the national police or secret service — that actually carry out purges or mass arrests.
Peacekeeping work: Part II
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. This week, Deep Dive continues to look at some of the recent research identified by leading peacekeeping scholars Barbara Walter, Lise Morje Howard, and Page Fortna, as crucial to shaping future policy discussions around third-party peacekeeping.
Peacekeeping work: Part I
This analysis was featured in Critical State, a weekly newsletter from The World and Inkstick Media. Subscribe here. A political science Voltron came together recently. Three of the world’s leading scholars on peacekeeping, Barbara Walter, Lise Morje Howard, and Page Fortna, wrote a major article in the British Journal of Political Science, taking stock of what we know about the processes and conditions necessary for third-party peacekeeping to be effective.
Disinfo Wars: Part II
Words: Sam Ratner Date: November 24th, 2020 Last week, Critical State looked at new research on whether “disinformation” — in the form of elite rhetoric — actually moves the needle on people’s understanding of their political world.
Disinformation Wars: Part II
Last week, Critical State looked at new research on whether “disinformation” — in the form of elite rhetoric — actually moves the needle on people’s understanding of their political world.
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