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Articles by Sam Smith
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Props: One Line Beats The Price
Ask the Sims · Player Props · Seahawks at Broncos · TNF Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 34 priced prop lines for Thursday night at Denver, and 10,000 Stokastic Sims beat the price on exactly one of them. He scores a touchdown in 51.4% of the runs and Kalshi charges 48.7 cents, a gap of 2.7. Every other line on his board is either fair or priced above what the Sims make it, which is the useful thing to know before you build anything around him. This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday Both teams are 3-2.
Lamar Jackson Injury: What It Does To Ravens Playoff Odds
The quick answer Lamar Jackson hurt his left ankle in Sunday's win over the Titans and is believed to be day-to-day, which is the best case available for Ravens playoff odds. Two games is the pessimistic end of it, but that is the version we're pricing. Stokastic's Season Engine puts the cost of a two-game absence at three points of playoff probability and four points in the AFC North. The division is the only market where the absence changes much, and it is the one the board has not repriced.
NFL DFS Week 14 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
Week 14 brings one of the most defined slates of the season, and the latest Stokastic Sims reveal exactly where sharp NFL DFS picks are emerging. After thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups, the top NFL DFS Week 14 builds show a player pool anchored by concentrated running back value, consistent mid-tier wideouts and tightly grouped tight ends that repeatedly fuel winning constructions.
FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 13 MNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | 15% Off NFL Packages!
Week 13 Monday Night Football gives us Panthers-49ers, and we’ve got the ultimate FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet to get you ready. Backed by Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections,, ownership data, and advanced Sims, we’ve simulated thousands of outcomes to deliver the sharpest NFL DFS picks for Week 13. FanDuel NFL picks accurate as of publish time. We’ll update our picks as the week progresses, but for real-time insights, make sure to check out Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Week 13 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 13 slate has taken shape, and the Stokastic Sims have once again made it clear where the sharp money is heading. After thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups, the top 150 lineups (each with at least three unique players) show a slate defined by concentrated value at running back, balanced wide receiver exposure and one of the most efficient tight end pools of the season. This week’s NFL DFS picks are about structure, correlation and salary efficiency.
DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 13 FNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Get Sims 50% Off Core or Max!
Friday Night (Afternoon) Football brings an NFC clash: Bears-Eagles. To give you the edge on DraftKings, we’ve crunched the numbers with Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections, ownership data, and advanced NFL Sims. After thousands of simulations, we’ve pulled together the top DraftKings NFL DFS picks for your Week 13 FNF DFS cheat sheet. Data accurate as of publish time. We will update picks as the week goes on, but if you want real-time data, check out Stokastic’s Showdown NFL DFS projections.
BLACK FRIDAY SALE: Get Sims, Tools & Data 50% OFF (PROMO CODE INSIDE)
Black Friday came early, and if you play DFS, this is the kind of deal that can move your needle in a big way. Starting today and running through Black Friday, every Stokastic weekly single-sport package is 50% off! NBA, NFL, NHL, MMA … whatever slate you sweat, you can unlock the same industry-leading projections, ownership data and Sims that power Stokastic’s top players for half the price. This is one of the biggest DFS sales we will run all year, and once Black Friday is over, it disappears.
NFL DFS Week 12 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 12 slate features a clear shift from chaos to concentration, and the latest Stokastic Sims make it obvious where the sharp NFL DFS picks are heading. After thousands of DraftKings simulations, the top 150 lineups (each with at least three unique players) highlight a slate dominated by Chase Brown, mid-tier wideouts and one of the most heavily concentrated tight end pools we’ve seen all year.
NFL DFS Week 12 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 12 slate features a clear shift from chaos to concentration, and the latest Stokastic Sims make it obvious where the sharp NFL DFS picks are heading. After thousands of DraftKings simulations, the top 150 lineups (each with at least three unique players) highlight a slate dominated by Chase Brown, mid-tier wideouts and one of the most heavily concentrated tight end pools we’ve seen all year.
NFL DFS Week 11 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 11 slate might be the most wide open we’ve seen all year. The latest Stokastic Sims reveal a slate built around balance with a deep pool of efficient mid-range plays and low-cost correlation stacks that keep showing up in the top simulated lineups.
NFL DFS Week 10 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 10 slate features one of the most balanced player pools of the season, and the Stokastic Sims confirm it. After running thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups, we analyzed the top 150 builds (each with at least three unique players) to identify which quarterbacks, stacks and leverage plays are separating from the field. Unlike earlier weeks, there’s no single must-play stud.
NFL DFS Week 9 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 9 slate might be one of the most unpredictable yet, and the Stokastic Sims prove it. After running thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups, we analyzed the top 150 lineups (each with at least three unique players) to pinpoint the most common stacks, one-offs and leverage spots. This week’s Sims don’t show a runaway star or must-play stud.
NFL DFS Week 8 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 8 slate brings one of the most balanced sets of projections we’ve seen all season. After running thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups through the Stokastic Sims, we pulled the top 150 results (each with at least three unique players) to see which players, stacks and leverage spots are separating from the field.
NFL DFS Week 8 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The NFL DFS Week 8 slate brings one of the most balanced sets of projections we’ve seen all season. After running thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups through the Stokastic Sims, we pulled the top 150 results (each with at least three unique players) to see which players, stacks and leverage spots are separating from the field.
Stokastic's NBA DFS Tools for 2025-26: Get Sims, Projections & More for ONLY $1!
The NBA is back! For the first time this season, we’re rolling out our best-ever NBA DFS packages, loaded with the tools, data and simulations trusted by top DFS pros.
NFL DFS Week 7 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
The Week 7 NFL DFS slate looks wide open, and the latest Stokastic Sims prove it. After running thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups, we pulled the top 150 lineups (each with at least three unique players) to find where the true edge lies. What stood out most is, this isn’t a slate dominated by one superstar. Instead, the NFL DFS Week 7 picks and stacks lean on mid-tier efficiency, rookie volatility and a few sneaky stacks that could separate the sharps from the field.
NFL DFS Week 7 Chalk Plays: Good Chalk vs. Bad Chalk
When building lineups for NFL DFS Week 7, understanding good chalk plays and bad chalk plays can make or break your results. Chalk refers to the most popular players on the slate — but not all chalk is equal. Using Sims data from the top 150 ROI lineups for large-field GPPs, here’s which of the top 10 NFL DFS chalk picks deserve to be in your lineup, and which ones might sink it.
NFL DFS Week 7 Chalk Plays: Good Chalk vs. Bad Chalk
When building lineups for NFL DFS Week 7, understanding good chalk plays and bad chalk plays can make or break your results. Chalk refers to the most popular players on the slate — but not all chalk is equal. Using Sims data from the top 150 ROI lineups for large-field GPPs, here’s which NFL DFS chalk picks deserve to be in your lineup, and which ones might sink it.
Stokastic DFS Tools Win: How Stokastic Users Swept DraftKings NFL DFS for $80K
If you’re wondering how to win NFL DFS, just look at what happened in Week 6. In DraftKings’ $350K NFL Flea Flicker, Stokastic users finished first, second and third, taking home a combined $80,000 in winnings. That’s THREE DraftKings winning lineups built using Stokastic NFL DFS tools, the same ones available to every subscriber. Once again, NFL weekend was proof that Stokastic’s process and data beat luck every time.
NFL DFS Week 6 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
Week 6 is shaping up to be one of those slates where balance beats flashiness. The latest Stokastic NFL DFS Sims show a cluster of mid-tier quarterbacks, a few underpriced bell-cow backs and a handful of wideouts quietly dominating projections. The numbers tell a clear story: This isn’t a stars-and-scrubs week. The best NFL DFS picks come from lineups that feel uncomfortable at first glance, but those are often the ones that win.
NFL DFS Week 5 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
With the Week 5 DraftKings main slate approaching, Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims once again give us a sharp look into where the best NFL DFS picks are coming from. After running the Sims, we analyzed the top 150 lineups (minimum three unique players per build) to identify the most profitable NFL DFS Week 5 picks, stacks, and leverage opportunities.
DraftKings Golf Cheat Sheet: Best PGA DFS Sims Picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship
Get ready to build winning PGA DraftKings lineups with our latest DFS cheat sheet! These PGA DFS cheat sheets are designed to streamline your process and help you craft the best DraftKings DFS golf picks for this week’s contests. With the 2025 Sanderson Farms Championship ready to tee off, we’ve spotlighted the top plays on the slate, all backed by data from Stokastic’s PGA DFS Sims Tool. Ready to take your game to the next level?
NFL DFS Week 5 First Look: DraftKings Pricing Takeaways and Top DFS Picks
NFL DFS Week 5 on DraftKings is full of hidden edges. Some players are criminally underpriced, others have salaries that don’t match what we’re projecting to happen this week. If you want to win tournaments and avoid traps, it’s all about spotting the values and steering clear of the overpriced landmines. Here’s where the real leverage is for your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Week 5 First Look: DraftKings Pricing Takeaways and Top DFS Picks
NFL DFS Week 5 on DraftKings is full of hidden edges. Some players are criminally underpriced, others have salaries that don’t match what we’re projecting to happen this week. If you want to win tournaments and avoid traps, it’s all about spotting the values and steering clear of the overpriced landmines. Here’s where the real leverage is for your NFL DFS picks this week.
Stokastic User Morgan won $100K -- But Did A.D. Mitchell Cost Him the Milly Win?
Stokastic friend (and living proof Sims are awesome) Morgan nearly did the impossible: Back-to-back DraftKings NFL DFS Milly Maker wins. After taking down the top prize last week, he came up just short in Week 4, finishing in second place for $100,000. That kind of run doesn’t happen by accident. It comes from using the right DFS tools and trusting the process. Oh, and also, his final score was SIGNIFICANTLY impacted by Adonai Mitchell dropping the ball just before the goal line.
Why EPICK Is the Smarter Way to Play: Lower Fees, Better Lines, Bigger Edge
Most sportsbooks are built to take a cut on every bet you make. That hidden vig — often 10–15% — slowly eats away at your bankroll. EPICK changes that by creating a peer-to-peer ecosystem where players keep more of what they win. Unlike traditional books, EPICK isn’t the counterparty to your bet. Every lineup is head-to-head against another player. That shift creates a healthier system: Lower Effective Vig Pickers pay $0 in fees. Faders pay a 12% service fee on the entry.
FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 4 SNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Packers-Cowboys
The NFL season rolls on in primetime as the Packers face the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. To get you ready, we’ve built the ultimate FanDuel NFL DFS cheat sheet. Backed by Stokastic’s elite NFL DFS projections, ownership data and advanced Sims, we’ve simulated thousands of outcomes to arm you with the top NFL DFS Picks for Week 4. FanDuel NFL picks accurate as of publish time.
NFL DFS Week 4 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs, and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
Building winning DraftKings lineups in NFL DFS comes down to balancing chalk, leverage and correlation with your stacks. To help guide your process for Week 4, we analyzed the top 300 lineups from Stokastic’s latest run of NFL DFS Sims. Below we’ll highlight the most important exposures, pointing out which quarterbacks are driving stack constructions, which wide receivers and running backs are commanding the most attention, and where to find leverage opportunities for tournaments.
NFL DFS Week 4 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs, and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
Building winning DraftKings lineups in NFL DFS comes down to balancing chalk, leverage and correlation with your stacks. To help guide your process for Week 4, we analyzed the top 300 lineups from Stokastic’s latest run of NFL DFS Sims. Below we’ll highlight the most important exposures, pointing out which quarterbacks are driving stack constructions, which wide receivers and running backs are commanding the most attention, and where to find leverage opportunities for tournaments.
NFL DFS Week 4 First Look: DraftKings Pricing Takeaways and Top DFS Picks
Pricing shifts fast in DraftKings NFL, but heading into NFL DFS Week 4 there are still major misprices that stand out. Some players have stepped into full workhorse roles yet remain in the mid-tier range, while others have seen their salaries rise despite shaky usage or tough matchups. Breaking down the Week 4 board, it’s clear that the biggest edges come from targeting underpriced running backs and wide receivers while steering clear of risky overvalued plays.
Stokastic Regular Morgan Took Down the NFL Week 3 Milly Maker: Get 25% Off NFL Sims to Join Him!
If you’re wondering how to win NFL DFS, the answer starts with using the right DFS tools. Each week, thousands of players chase the perfect roster, but only a few manage to put together a true DFS winning lineup. Morgan, a friend of the Stokastic family, was one of those few in Week 3 as he took down a FanDuel NFL Milly Maker, and he did it with the best data and tools in the business: Stokastic Sims.
FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 3 MNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims
Week 3 Monday Night Football brings Lions-Ravens, and we’ve got the ultimate FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet to get you ready. Backed by Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections,, ownership data, and advanced Sims, we’ve simulated thousands of outcomes to deliver the sharpest NFL DFS picks for Week 3. FanDuel NFL picks accurate as of publish time. We’ll update our picks as the week progresses, but for real-time insights, make sure to check out Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections.
EPICK: The Sports App That Lets You Pick or Fade Lineups
The NFL season is officially here, and EPICK just dropped live projections to help you get an edge. Unlike sportsbooks, EPICK is a skill-based, peer-to-peer platform where players go head-to-head. That means you can build your own lineup or fade someone else’s—and in either case, the payouts are massive. Pick More/Less Build your lineup by choosing “More” or “Less” on player projections. Once locked, your payout multiplier is fixed—stack multipliers up to 100x.
NFL DFS Week 3 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs, and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
I ran through the top 300 lineups from Stokastic’s latest NFL Sims for the DraftKings Week 3 main slate. Below are the biggest edges I see for NFL DFS stacks, high-value one-offs and leverage based on lineup exposures from this run. If you’re trying to figure out NFL DFS picks for Week 3, this is a great place to start. Check out our breakdown of our NFL subscriptions for pricing and a detailed overview of the tools and data available at each.
DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 3 Main Slate Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Top Stacks, One-Offs & More!
Week 3 of the NFL season has arrived, bringing a slate packed with stars and shootout potential. Now’s the time to lock in your DraftKings DFS lineups, and Stokastic has the tools to give you the edge. Using our industry-leading NFL DFS projections, ownership data and advanced NFL Sims, we’ve run thousands of simulations to uncover the best values, leverage plays, and core targets for Week 3. Build smarter lineups and maximize your edge with our top DraftKings DFS picks.
DraftKings CFB DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 4 Main Slate Picks From CFB DFS Contest Sims
Get ready for a packed Week 4 of college football DFS! Stokastic has you covered with the top DraftKings CFB DFS picks, fueled by our industry-leading CFB DFS projections, CFB DFS ownership projections and cutting-edge CFB Sims. Thousands of simulations power our cheat sheet, giving you the best plays across the full Saturday slate … and the edge you need to win. Our CFB packages are the most complete in the game. With the season already off to a rocking start, there’s no better time to join.
Be the House: How EPICK Is Reinventing the Industry in 38+ States
Sports betting just flipped. For years, bettors have been forced to play against the house — sportsbooks that tilt the odds in their favor, cap your winnings, and cut off sharp players. But now there’s a new way to play: EPICK, a peer-to-peer platform where you can literally BE the house. At its core, EPICK isn’t a sportsbook. It’s a skill-based, peer-to-peer platform where players go head-to-head instead of betting against a book.
NFL DFS Week 3 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs, and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
I ran through the top 300 lineups from Stokastic’s latest NFL Sims for the DraftKings Week 3 main slate. Below are the biggest edges I see for NFL DFS stacks, high-value one-offs and leverage based on lineup exposures from this run. If you’re trying to figure out NFL DFS picks for Week 3, this is a great place to start. Check out our breakdown of our NFL subscriptions for pricing and a detailed overview of the tools and data available at each.
FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 3 Main Slate Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Now Including TOP STACKS!
Week 3 of the NFL season is here, and it’s loaded with fantasy potential. Now’s the time to lock in your FanDuel lineups, and Stokastic has the data to give you the edge. Using our industry-leading NFL DFS projections, ownership insights and advanced NFL Sims, we’ve run thousands of simulations to uncover the best values, leverage spots, and core plays for Week 3. Build smarter lineups and maximize your edge with our top FanDuel DFS picks. FanDuel NFL picks accurate as of publish time.
FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 3 TNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | NFL Monthly Packages Are 25% Off!
The NFL Week 3 kicks off with a bang as the Dolphins and Bills square off on Thursday Night Football. And we’ve got everything you need to supercharge your FanDuel NFL DFS picks. Powered by Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections, ownership data and advanced Sims, we’ve simulated thousands of scenarios to deliver the ultimate Week 3 TNF DFS cheat sheet. FanDuel NFL picks accurate as of publish time.
NFL DFS Week 3 First Look: DraftKings Pricing Takeaways and Top DFS Picks
NFL DFS Week 3 is here, and DraftKings has already adjusted salaries after two full weeks of action. That means it’s time to dig into the biggest takeaways from DFS DraftKings pricing: Who’s undervalued, who’s fairly priced and who looks like a risky overpay. Here’s your NFL DFS First Look with players to keep on your radar across all formats.
DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 2 MNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Justin Herbert & More
Monday Night Football delivers its first multi-game slate of the season, and we’ve got you covered with the ultimate DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet. Powered by Stokastic’s elite NFL DFS projections, ownership data, and advanced Sims, we’ve run thousands of simulations to highlight the sharpest NFL DFS Picks for Week 2 MNF. DraftKings NFL picks accurate as of publish time.
DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 2 SNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Falcons-Vikings
The NFL season heads to primetime with Falcons-Vikings on Sunday Night Football, and we’ve got you covered. Our DraftKings NFL DFS cheat sheet is built using Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections, ownership data and advanced Sims. After running thousands of simulations, we’re delivering the very best NFL DFS picks for Week 2 straight to you. DraftKings NFL picks accurate as of publish time.
DraftKings CFB DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 3 Main Slate Picks From CFB DFS Contest Sims
Get ready for a packed Week 3 of college football DFS! Stokastic has you covered with the top DraftKings CFB DFS picks, fueled by our industry-leading CFB DFS projections, CFB DFS ownership projections and cutting-edge CFB Sims. Thousands of simulations power our cheat sheet, giving you the best plays across the full Saturday slate … and the edge you need to win. Our CFB packages are the most complete in the game. With the season already off to a rocking start, there’s no better time to join.
EPICK Strategy: Lower Vig, Bigger Edges Compared to Sportsbooks
Frustrated by inflated vig and ever-shifting lines at traditional sportsbooks? EPICK flips the script. This peer-to-peer fantasy platform gives players real control with two ways to play: lock in Pick More/Less lineups at fixed multipliers, or Fade someone else’s card and cash if any leg misses. Available in more than 38 states, EPICK builds a fair, skill-based ecosystem that puts more money back in players’ pockets.
DraftKings CFB DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 3 Main Slate Picks From CFB DFS Contest Sims
Get ready for a packed Week 3 of college football DFS! Stokastic has you covered with the top DraftKings CFB DFS picks, fueled by our industry-leading CFB DFS projections, CFB DFS ownership projections and cutting-edge CFB Sims. Thousands of simulations power our cheat sheet, giving you the best plays across the full Saturday slate … and the edge you need to win. Our CFB packages are the most complete in the game. With the season already off to a rocking start, there’s no better time to join.
DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 2 SNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Falcons-Vikings
The NFL season heads to primetime with Falcons-Vikings on Sunday Night Football, and we’ve got you covered. Our DraftKings NFL DFS cheat sheet is built using Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections, ownership data and advanced Sims. After running thousands of simulations, we’re delivering the very best NFL DFS picks for Week 2 straight to you. DraftKings NFL picks accurate as of publish time.
NFL DFS Week 2 DraftKings Picks: Best Stacks, One-Offs, and Leverage from Stokastic’s Sims
With Week 2 on deck, Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims have already run thousands of DraftKings lineups. Looking at the top 300 outputs gives us a roadmap of where the math is leaning. Instead of just raw percentages, let’s dig into which stacks, one-offs, and leverage plays stand out as the best NFL DFS Week 2 picks. Check out our breakdown of our NFL subscriptions for pricing and a detailed overview of the tools and data available at each.
EPICK: How to Master the EPICK Fade in Peer-to-Peer Fantasy
Sports fans are always looking for an edge in fantasy and betting-style contests. That’s where EPICK comes in. Unlike traditional fantasy platforms, EPICK introduces a peer-to-peer fantasy model where players can take two very different roles: the Picker and the Fader. Understanding the difference—and mastering the EPICK Fade—is one of the sharpest strategies you can use to win.
FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Best Week 2 TNF Picks From NFL DFS Contest Sims | Jordan Love
The NFL Week 2 kicks off with a bang as the Commanders and Packers square off on Thursday Night Football. And we’ve got everything you need to supercharge your FanDuel NFL DFS picks. Powered by Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections, ownership data and advanced Sims, we’ve simulated thousands of scenarios to deliver the ultimate Week 2 TNF DFS cheat sheet. FanDuel NFL picks accurate as of publish time.
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