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Articles by Sameer Lalwani
As Rubio Lands in India, the U.S.-India Relationship Is Stronger Than It Looks
Blog Emissary harnesses Carnegie’s global scholarship to deliver incisive, nuanced analysis on the most pressing international affairs challenges. Program The South Asia Program informs policy debates relating to the region’s security, economy, and political development. From strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific to India’s internal dynamics and U.S. engagement with the region, the program offers in-depth, rigorous research and analysis on South Asia’s most critical challenges.
When the world's at stake, go beyond the headlines.
On May 26, India hosted a formal meeting of the foreign ministers of the Quad — comprising the United States, Australia, India, and Japan. Since its initial creation in 2007 and revival in 2017, foreign policy analysts have debated the usefulness of the organization, which was designed as a group of democratic states that could work together to counter growing Chinese power and influence.
Can India Thrive in Trump’s World?
Subscribe on Program The South Asia Program informs policy debates relating to the region’s security, economy, and political development. From strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific to India’s internal dynamics and U.S. engagement with the region, the program offers in-depth, rigorous research and analysis on South Asia’s most critical challenges.
India and a Changing Global Order: Foreign Policy in the Trump 2.0 Era
Trump 2.0 has unsettled India’sexternal environment—buthas notoverturned its foreign policystrategy,which continuesto relyon diversification, hedging,and calibrated partnerships across a fractured order.
Deep Learning From Operation Sindoor: Five Takeaways From a Four-Day War
Tensions between India and Pakistan — two countries that President Donald Trump claimed had been fighting for 1,500 years — escalated rapidly over a few days in May 2025. On May 7–10, the two countries fought an 88-hour war after India accused Pakistan of orchestrating a gruesome terrorist attack in April that killed 26 civilians. This was one of the most significant conflicts between the two nuclear-armed rivals in decades.
Signposts Toward the Future of Indian-Chinese Relations
This article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis. On Aug. 31, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual summit in Tianjin — Modi’s first trip to China in seven years. The meeting highlighted improving relations between the two countries, following a period of intensified tensions during border clashes in 2020.
U.S.-India Divergence and Convergence on Defense Operationalization Concepts
This memo is a part of CFR Expert Manjari Chatterjee Miller’s project on India and the liberal international order published by CFR's China Strategy Initiative through its China 360° program. Introduction More From Our Experts Much of the writing on the U.S.-India defense partnership focuses on the convergence of their interests.
Lessons Learned from Pakistan’s Use of Chinese-Provided Weapons
In the latest conflict between Pakistan and India, Pakistan used weapons systems imported from China, with varying degrees of success. Pakistan is a crucial customer for Chinese weapons exports, with 63 percent of China’s arms exports going to Pakistan between 2020 and 2024. The conflict offered an opportunity to observe how Chinese-provided weapons performed against Western-provided and Indian weapons.
The Risks of the Latest India-Pakistan Crisis
We are sharing a free episode of Thinking the Unthinkable with you all due to fast-moving events between India and Pakistan. This episode features host Ankit Panda and guest Sameer Lalwani discussing the risks involved in a military conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. This episode was recorded after the April 22 attack in Kashmir that prompted the current round of tensions and before India launched strikes on Pakistan, and digs into the risks in the event of an attack.
India Still Holds Opportunity for Washington
In 2021, Sameer Lalwani and Tyler Sagerstrom wrote “Avoiding a Collision Course With India,” which argued that U.S.-Indian relations risked being overlooked in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal of Afghanistan and India’s controversial acquisition of Russian S-400 air defense systems. In light of continued questions over what the U.S.-Indian partnership should look like in practice, we invited Sameer back to reflect on his article.
Modi’s Washington Visit Signals U.S.-India Ties Will Continue Upswing
Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington marked the fourth meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and a foreign leader since the start of the new administration. Despite differences over tariffs, Modi’s trip signaled that U.S.-Indian relations will continue along the positive trajectory seen in recent years, particularly in defense and technology cooperation.
How to Get the Most Out of the U.S.-Indian Defense Partnership Original
Upon taking office, President Donald Trump threatened reciprocal duties against “” India, sent a cargo plane of undocumented migrants back to India, and cancelled a sanctions waiver for an Indian port. This may not seem auspicious for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington this week. But it’s not nearly as bad as it looks. Despite tough messaging during a call between Trump and Modi last week, growing U.S.-Indian defense cooperation will provide the ballast to the relationship.
In Brief: A Thaw in Icy Relations Between India and China?
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. *** A 2020 deadly clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers along the Line of Actual Control intensified the long-simmering tensions before the two countries.
How the India-China Border Deal Impacts Their Ties and the U.S.
KEY TAKEAWAYS Xi and Modi seem keen to patch things up in order to expand mutually beneficial economic interaction. But the deal does not necessarily herald a strategic shift by Beijing and New Delhi. India is unlikely to reverse course in its relationship with the U.S., which has deepened in recent years. KEY TAKEAWAYS Xi and Modi seem keen to patch things up in order to expand mutually beneficial economic interaction.
Does interstate conflict affect attitudes towards domestic minorities? Evidence from India
Hostname: page-component-7bb8b95d7b-lvwk9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-09-28T12:41:29.468Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 September 2024 Niloufer Siddiqui [Opens in a new window] and Show author details Keywords Asian politicscomparative politics: developing countriesethnicity and nationalismexperimental researchinternational conflict Type Research Note Information Political Science Research and Methods , First View ,...
INDUS-X at One: A Year of Bilateral Breakthroughs
Info-sharing mechanisms. Several initiatives have begun to solve information asymmetries through direct engagement with industry, startups, academia, investors and government. The launch of the U.S.-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) in January 2023, with INDUS-X following in June 2023 as the defense component of iCET, catalyzed government efforts to bridge information gaps.
India Elections: Foreign Policy Rhetoric Mixes Bluster and Real Differences
KEY TAKEAWAYS Tough rhetoric on Pakistan is great for elections, but policy attention has shifted to other challenges, like China. Ruling BJP has a distinct ‘defensive offense’ approach to perceived national security threats. Despite rhetoric, BJP and opposition Congress Party have similar policies on China. Historically, foreign policy has rarely been a core area for political debate in India’s national elections.
What’s Driving India-China Tensions? Original
USIP experts Dean Cheng, Sameer Lalwani, Daniel Markey and Nilanthi Samaranayake examine what has changed on the border in the past four years, new domains where India-China competition has intensified, what role India’s general elections this spring could play in shaping these dynamics and the implications for U.S.-India relations.
Rajesh Basrur’s Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India’s Foreign Policy
India’s Foreign Policy and the Ethic of Responsibility Ian Hall Gambling on India’s Foreign Policy: The Importance of Implementation Kate Sullivan de Estrada Explaining Policy Drift—An Analytical Template Drawn from the World’s Most Populous Democracy Jivanta Schottli Essence of Indecision: Understanding Indian Security Policy Choices Frank O’Donnell Policy Drift as an Inevitability and an Occasional Success Sameer Lalwani Author’s Response: Indian Domestic Politics and Foreign...
At G20, India Tests Geopolitical Clout Amid Xi’s Absence
USIP’s Sameer Lalwani and Carla Freeman discuss why this summit is an important moment for India, what Xi’s absence means and how the United States should approach the summit. Lalwani: Simply put, the G20 affords India the opportunity to burnish its global leadership credentials. This is the first time India has hosted a G20 summit, the annual convening of the world’s 19 leading economies plus the European Union, which combined contribute 80% of global GDP.
A big step forward in US-India defence ties
First, it is important to recognise and enumerate the long list of accomplishments of US-India defence ties, which have been the load-bearing pillar of the strategic partnership. The two countries have built intelligence-sharing channels and assessment capabilities to better identify and prepare for threats; developed access agreements for military logistics to support each other’s reach; and conducted regular military exercises to improve our capabilities and interoperability.
Will India Ditch Russia?
New Delhi Is Not Done With the Kremlin Yet After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many of the world’s major democracies lined up to condemn Russian aggression and rally to Ukraine’s defense. India did not. It abstained on key votes at the United Nations and refused to denounce its longtime partner. The backlash that ensued was striking; numerous governments expressed frustration with India for its reluctance to condemn the indefensible.
Will India Ditch Russia?
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions New Delhi Is Not Done With the Kremlin Yet Sameer Lalwani After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many of the world’s major democracies lined up to condemn Russian aggression and rally to Ukraine’s defense. India did not. It abstained on key votes at the United Nations and refused to denounce its longtime partner.
What the 2022 US defence strategy means for India
The NDS explicitly marks China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. While the 2018 NDS heralded a new era of long-term strategic competition, it treated Russia as a major power threat on par with China. That is no longer the case. China is seen as the “only” country with the intent and increasingly, the power, to reshape the international order. For India, this means the US will be laser-focused on the very challenge that poses the most significant military and strategic threat to India.
How confident are Indians in Modi’s India?
For many analysts, the ensuing surge of nationalist sentiment and support for PM Modi — the so-called Balakot Bump — was a key element of the landslide victory by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 national election. If true, this would mean that Indians have evolved from a politics fully focused on roti, kapda, aur makaan (food, clothing, and shelter) to a politics in which foreign policy can affect domestic political outcomes.
How to Deal with the Risk of Nuclear Escalation in South Asia
The incident began when a cruise missile was launched from an Indian base near Sirsa the evening of March 9. The missile traveled through civilian airspace and landed in the Pakistani city of Mian Channu, damaging some property without inflicting any casualties.
Why US confronting Russia will bolster the Indo-Pacific strategy
A number of Indian strategists and former officials have protested the vigorous United States (US) confrontation of Russia through punishing sanctions and continuous military support for Ukraine as a blunder, one that will ultimately boomerang and set back both Indian and US security interests.
Opinion | The Chinese Threat No One Is Talking About - And How to Counter It
Why haven’t China’s increasing Indian Ocean capabilities raised more alarm bells in Washington, given the laser focus on China these days? One reason is that the U.S. has concentrated its efforts on East Asia, particularly the possibility of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Another problem, however, is that the U.S. has long assumed India would be a counterweight to China in the Indian Ocean.
What India can do to avoid US sanctions over Russia
Even as President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are set to meet this week for the in-person Quad summit, they could face a devastating setback if the United States (US) sanctions India in the coming months. The US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) could compel the Biden administration to impose sanctions on India when it takes delivery of the Russian S-400 air defence system at the end of 2021.
What India can do to avoid US sanctions over Russia
Even as President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are set to meet this week for the in-person Quad summit, they could face a devastating setback if the United States (US) sanctions India in the coming months. The US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) could compel the Biden administration to impose sanctions on India when it takes delivery of the Russian S-400 air defence system at the end of 2021.
Avoiding a Collision Course With India
After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, some of the harshest criticism of America’s credibility has come — surprisingly — from India. One prominent commentator projects the end of “Pax Americana” and another argues that the Taliban’s victory constitutes the “first significant setback” of America’s “Indo-Pacific project.” These Indian strategists see the end of the U.S. effort in Afghanistan as a sign of unreliability.
What the India-Russia Defence Partnership Means for US Policy
Given India’s dependence on and trust in Russia, US attempts to deter India–Russia arms transactions and compel India to phase out Russian systems are unlikely to work. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Chris Bassler, Liv Dowling, Eugene Gholz, Zachary Keck, Rear Admiral (Retd) William McQuilkin, John Parachini, Benjamin Schwartz, Elizabeth Threlkeld, Robin Walker and Matthew Zweig for their feedback and advice, and Julia Lodoen for her research assistance.
Strategizing to Exit Afghanistan: From Risk Avoidance to Risk Management
The United States faces a “shit sandwich” of choices in Afghanistan. It can live up to its commitment in the U.S.-Taliban deal and depart on May 1, even though it’s unprepared for the likely consequences of Afghan political fragmentation and intensified, escalated civil war. Or it can stay, hoping to bolster the Afghan government to break Taliban resolve or compel it to submit to a genuine negotiated peace compromise.
U.S. Can't Ignore Next Indo-Pakistani Crisis
Two years ago this week, I touched down in New Delhi, groggy from my intercontinental flight from Washington, D.C. I looked forward to a quiet two-day layover en route to a South Asian crisis wargame that I was hosting in Sri Lanka. The next morning I awoke to the news that India had just conducted the first cross-border airstrike on Pakistan’s mainland in five decades, and found myself in the midst of a serious, real-life crisis. Read Full Article »
America Can’t Ignore the Next Indo-Pakistani Crisis
Two years ago this week, I touched down in New Delhi, groggy from my intercontinental flight from Washington, D.C. I looked forward to a quiet two-day layover en route to a South Asian crisis wargame that I was hosting in Sri Lanka. The next morning I awoke to the news that India had just conducted the first cross-border airstrike on Pakistan’s mainland in five decades, and found myself in the midst of a serious, real-life crisis.
Analysis | India revoked Kashmir’s autonomy a year ago. What has happened since then?
A year ago, India eliminated the semi-autonomy provisions of Jammu and Kashmir, the country’s sole Muslim-majority state and a region disputed by Pakistan, a move that analysts anticipated would ripple across the region. The Indian government scrapped the constitutional provisions of autonomy in Article 370 and 35A, dissolved Kashmir’s state assembly and split the region into two union territories.
Revelations and Opportunities: What the United States Can Learn from the Sino-Indian Crisis
Strategists of governance, economics, and geopolitics have long known that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. The Sino-Indian border crisis, which now seems under control, is no different. Scuffles in mid-May between Chinese and Indian troops appeared to escalate with People’s Liberation Army actions of unprecedented breadth, size, and coordination across multiple fronts.
Analysis | Trump’s India trip didn’t produce a trade deal. Here’s what did result.
President Trump made his first official visit to India this week. In a trip that some analysts suggest catered more to optics than outcomes, there were some surprises — most notably, religious riots surrounding the government’s new citizenship law — that exposed the vulnerability of U.S. relations with India. Here are four takeaways from Trump’s trip. 1.
The Elephant in the Room: Auditing the Past and Future of the U.S.-India Partnership
Editor’s Note: This is the 27th installment of “Southern (Dis)Comfort,” a series from War on the Rocks and the Stimson Center. The series seeks to unpack the dynamics of intensifying competition — military, economic, diplomatic — in Southern Asia, principally between China, India, Pakistan, and the United States. Catch up on the rest of the series. Optimism has steadied U.S.-India relations for more than a decade.
The Kargil War: India and Pakistan 20 Years Later
Image Credit: AP Photo/B.K.Bangash Parsing the war’s consequences, implications, and relationship to 2019’s Balakot crisis. By Sameer Lalwani and Eyal Hanfling for The Diplomat May 01, 2019 In February 2019, the threat of war in South Asia appeared imminent for the first time in over a decade. For the first time since 1971, India and Pakistan traded cross-border airstrikes; they also engaged in conventional clashes not seen since the 1999 Kargil War.
Analysis | Did India shoot down a Pakistani F-16 in February? This just became a big deal.
With voting underway in India’s general election, February’s Kashmir conflict is likely to weigh on the minds of voters, especially given last week’s social media uproar over the reported downing of a Pakistani F-16 fighter jet during the crisis. The controversy flared up when a Foreign Policy article stated that the Pentagon had accounted for all of Pakistan’s F-16 jets.
Drivers, Decisions, Dilemmas: Understanding the Kashmir Crisis and its Implications
Nearly 20 years after India and Pakistan clashed in the heights of Kargil — only the second time in history nuclear-armed rivals fought a hot war — the two South Asian rivals have once again found themselves careening toward conflict over Kashmir. Last Thursday, an explosive-laden SUV rammed into a bus carrying Indian paramilitary forces along the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway in India-administered Kashmir, killing more than 40 troops.
India and Pakistan Aren’t Ready for Another Terrorist Crisis
On the week of the 10th anniversary of the Mumbai terrorist massacre, the bilateral cooperation between India and Pakistan to open a visa-free corridor for Sikh pilgrims to access a sacred place of worship offers a rare moment of inspiration.
Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations: Managing Strategic Rivalry After Doklam
The Doklam standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the summer of 2017 coincided with an ongoing deterioration in bilateral relations, and accelerated pre-existing military competition. Frank O’Donnell provides a detailed analysis of Indian and Chinese nuclear and conventional ground force posturing, and illustrates darkening rival perceptions of these actions and their underlying strategic intentions.
How much 5G coverage will you really get from lampposts?
As we head towards 2019, 5G plans of AT&T and Verizon are slowly becoming clearer, with both companies initially focused on mmWave small cell deployments on Street Lights. This article shows the type of coverage operators should expect from their Street light based mmWave deployments. Verizon has announced plans to deploy 5G on 101 street lights in Sacramento, focused on fixed broadband service with plans of offering mobile service later.
WOTR Podcast: Pakistan Beyond 70: Rivalries, its Neighbors, and the Great Powers
WOTR Podcast: Pakistan Beyond 70: Rivalries, its Neighbors, and the Great Powers Pakistan is 70 years old. To make the anniversary, Joshua White of SAIS foolishly asked Ryan Evans to moderate an esteemed panel of experts to discuss Pakistan’s role in Asia, its relationships with the great powers, and its future. Have a listen as Sameer Lalwani, Tanvi Madan, Daniel Markey, Olga Oliker, and Rasul Bakhsh Rais share their knowledge and wisdom. Produced by Tre Hester
A political choice
The “surgical operation” earlier this month killing the mastermind of the Sunjuwan Army camp attack (Jammu) was lauded as a major victory for Indian security forces, but for some observers, it is surprising that such a seemingly provocative episode closed with such a measured response. Details of the February 10 Sunjuwan attack fit a familiar pattern.
The Risk of a Nuclear-Tinged South Asian Crisis Is Rising
The latest U.S. spat with Pakistan, initiated by President Donald Trump’s inaugural tweet of 2018, suggests that the recently revamped U.S. South Asia strategy may already be in jeopardy. The South Asia strategy was in some ways a test run for the National Security Strategy (NSS). As the first major strategy review conducted by the Trump administration, it began as a review of U.S. policy in Afghanistan, but eventually expanded over nearly six months into a U.S. strategy for the region.
Take Small Steps to Advance the US-India Relationship
India got more mentions in the new National Security Strategy than Japan or South Korea. Here’s what should come next. A region normally peripheral to U.S. foreign-policy debates received considerable attention in the new National Security Strategy, which contains eight mentions of U.S. objectives in the “Indo-Pacific” and seven of India itself — more than allies Japan and South Korea. The NSS signals a desire to continue efforts begun by the George W.
Closing the Taliban Doha Office Will Harm U.S. Aims in Afghanistan
Despite the past week of violence that rocked Afghanistan, including a wave of major Taliban attacks on Afghan security forces, the Trump administration appears to still be holding the door open for a negotiated settlement. The commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Gen. John W. Nicholson, recently credited President Donald Trump's commitment to an enhanced and open-ended military presence in Afghanistan with setting the conditions for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
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