Posted In: Alternative Investments, Behavioral Finance, Investment Topics, Performance Measurement & Evaluation Venture capitalists often emphasize their ability to pick winners. Yet the data tell a harsher story: roughly 90% of early-stage VCs fail to outperform a simple Nasdaq ETF after fees. True outperformance is confined to a narrow slice of the top decile. The reason is not mystery or macro conditions. It is misplaced focus.