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Articles by Scott Sumner
Cloudy with spot showers now, getting colder and windier soon Original
Today some isolated to scattered showers and perhaps some thunder are possible as a cold front moves across the DMV through the early evening. Following the front the winds will begin to increase, as temperatures fall from the 60s into the mid 40s by Friday morning.
The winds relax tonight making it feel chilly overnight Original
Tonight, winds will relax, and under a partly cloudy sky, overnight lows will range from the mid-30s in western Maryland to the low to mid-40s around the Beltway and the Bay. Tuesday will continue to be sunny and a little breezy at times due to another dry front that passes through the DMV. High temperatures look to range from the upper 50s in the Shenandoah and Cumberland Valleys, while closer to D.C., the upper 60s will be more common.
Another clear and chilly night ahead Original
Tonight will be another starry sky and chilly evening with overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s in the Allegany Front region to the mid-40s around the Beltway and Bay areas. Looking ahead to the work week, we’ll see another sun-filled day Monday, with highs into the lower 60s, but it will be more breezy as gusts could pick up to 30 mph.
The thermometer falls to freezing for some overnight Original
Tonight, the winds will gradually diminish overnight, but will still be breezy in places, like at higher elevations and over the waters. With a lowering of the wind in spots and with high pressure around, freezing to near-freezing temperatures are expected as a result. The National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory and Freeze Warnings for the Rappahannock and parts of the Shenandoah Valleys from midnight until 9am Sunday, so protect any plants that you may still have outside.
Dry weather and plenty of sunshine for Election Day Original
It’s still nice and quiet out there on this Election Day, as afternoon highs are expected to hit the low to mid-70s before the day is done. Another night of fairly clear skies and calm winds will give us another shot at some patchy fog Wednesday morning. With moisture building a little more over the next 24 hours, this round of fog is looking a little more likely. Temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s again tonight.
More sunshine in the forecast for Tuesday Original
As we continue to see dry days and seasonal weather conditions, there are some changes coming this week in the form of some rain showers. As high pressure continues to move east and offshore, that will allow a western storm system to move closer to the Mid-Atlantic region over the next 24-48 hours. Tuesday is looking to be another dry day, but also a sunnier one as well. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the 70s in most locations across the DMV, which is some 5-10 degrees above normal.
Dry weather continues, while temps warm this work week
High pressure north of the area is forecast to slide offshore tonight into Monday, allowing for the dry weather to continue across the DMV. With that happening, our winds switch from the north to the south, so the thermometer slowly gets a bit milder from now until midweek. Expect 60-degree readings to change into the 70s Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of our next front.
Dry weather continues, while temps warm this work week Original
High pressure north of the area is forecast to slide offshore tonight into Monday, allowing for the dry weather to continue across the DMV. With that happening, our winds switch from the north to the south, so the thermometer slowly gets a bit milder from now until midweek. Expect 60-degree readings to change into the 70s Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of our next front.
Plenty of clouds expected Sunday
After not seeing rain for a while, some rain is back in the forecast, but just not right away. The remainder of the weekend will be dry, but also mostly cloudy. As we start a new work week, the area of high pressure will continue moving east, allowing for milder temperatures moving back into the area. Seasonal temperatures will be with us Monday as highs reach the upper 60s in D.C., but eventually the southeast winds will help to bring a gradual warming of the low to mid-70s back to the DMV.
Dry, cloudy night for trick-or-treating
Dry, cloudy night for trick-or-treating Sat, October 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM EDT After not seeing rain for a while, some rain is back in the forecast, but just not right away. The remainder of the weekend will be dry, but also mostly cloudy. As we start a new work week, the area of high pressure will continue moving east, allowing for milder temperatures moving back into the area.
Dry, cloudy night for trick-or-treating
Seasonable temperatures and rain-free conditions are expected this Halloween weekend. After the time change into Sunday morning, more clouds stick around Sunday and temperatures max out in the 60s again. We gradually find a warming trend for the workweek, with 70s back for Election Day. The biggest change comes with a storm system and rain chances for the end of the week. Rain chances start by Wednesday evening, with widespread rainfall Thursday and showers into some of Friday.
Deficits: I Cried Wolf . . .
The US federal deficit is surging despite a booming economy, with debt projected to hit 100% of GDP by 2026. I had planned to do a post on Robert Hall and Michael Woodford, as I am a big fan of both of their work. But I’ve been pretty sick the past few weeks—beginning with a flu that gave me a 104 (40C) temperature, and then pneumonia. So I haven’t felt like blogging. Below is a post I wrote a month ago but hadn’t gotten around to posting. I may be slow in responding to comments, but I’ll try.
Our great stretch of weather continues Original
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Oct 20, 2026 / 11:38 AM EDT Updated: Oct 20, 2026 / 11:38 AM EDT This week, there is no rain forecast, or, for that matter, many clouds to be seen either. Multiple rounds of high pressure will bring plenty of sunshine to the DMV over the next five days, as a coastal storm continues to drift offshore.
Our great stretch of weather continues
Our great stretch of weather continues Tue, October 20, 2026 at 11:38 AM EDT This week, there is no rain forecast, or, for that matter, many clouds to be seen either. Multiple rounds of high pressure will bring plenty of sunshine to the DMV over the next five days, as a coastal storm continues to drift offshore.
It’s a dry and mostly sunny week ahead Original
Tonight, high pressure builds from Canada and will block the storm from moving further north along the Carolina coast between now and Tuesday. The difference in pressure between the Canadian high and the coastal low will bring about daily breezy conditions to the Maryland Coast, so at times of high tide this week, water levels are forecast to be higher than normal.
Another frosty night for some in the DMV
Tonight, once again the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia, along with a Freeze Warning for counties east of the Blue Ridge mountains, where the growing season is not quite over. That will come to an end however overnight, as both cold alerts begin just after midnight and run through mid-morning Monday.
Another frosty night for some in the DMV
Another frosty night for some in the DMV Sun, October 18, 2026 at 4:50 PM EDT Tonight, once again the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia, along with a Freeze Warning for counties east of the Blue Ridge mountains, where the growing season is not quite over. That will come to an end however overnight, as both cold alerts begin just after midnight and run through mid-morning Monday.
Another frosty night for some in the DMV
Tonight, once again the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia, along with a Freeze Warning for counties east of the Blue Ridge mountains, where the growing season is not quite over.
Another frosty night for some in the DMV
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Oct 18, 2026 / 04:50 PM EDT Updated: Oct 18, 2026 / 04:50 PM EDT Tonight, once again the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of Maryland and Northern Virginia, along with a Freeze Warning for counties east of the Blue Ridge mountains, where the growing season is not quite over. That will come to an end however overnight, as both cold alerts begin just after midnight and run through mid-morning Monday.
Frost and freezing temps seen in the DMV overnight
Tonight, the wind will relax, and high pressure nearby will bring the coldest air we've seen since late April in D.C. and elsewhere. As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of central Maryland, along with central and Northern Virginia. Also, a Freeze Warning has been issued for all counties along and west of I-81. That includes much of the Cumberland and Shenandoah Valleys. Both cold alerts begin just after midnight and run through mid-morning on Sunday.
Frost and freezing temps seen in the DMV overnight
Frost and freezing temps seen in the DMV overnight Sat, October 17, 2026 at 5:12 PM EDT Tonight, the wind will relax, and high pressure nearby will bring the coldest air we've seen since late April in D.C. and elsewhere. As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of central Maryland, along with central and Northern Virginia. Also, a Freeze Warning has been issued for all counties along and west of I-81.
Frost and freezing temps seen in the DMV overnight
Tonight, the wind will relax, and high pressure nearby will bring the coldest air we’ve seen since late April in D.C. and elsewhere. As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of central Maryland, along with central and Northern Virginia. Also, a Freeze Warning has been issued for all […] Tonight, the wind will relax, and high pressure nearby will bring the coldest air we've seen since late April in D.C. and elsewhere.
Frost and freezing temps seen in the DMV overnight
Tonight, the wind will relax, and high pressure nearby will bring the coldest air we’ve seen since late April in D.C. and elsewhere. As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for parts of central Maryland, along with central and Northern Virginia. Also, a Freeze Warning has been issued for all counties along and west of I-81. That includes much of the Cumberland and Shenandoah Valleys. Both cold alerts begin just after midnight and run through mid-morning on Sunday.
Record warmth possible for some folks today Original
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Oct 14, 2026 / 09:55 AM EDT Updated: Oct 14, 2026 / 09:59 AM EDT For today, highs are expected to soar into the upper 80s, which will be challenging records. For DC, Dulles Airport, and Hagerstown, forecast highs are on pace to tie the records for the day set back in 1975, while Winchester could break it’s old record set back in 1989.
A beautiful afternoon ahead Original
Today, high pressure, plenty of sunshine, and mild temperatures are in the forecast. Expected highs to peak around 80 degrees in most areas in and around the Beltway, which would be some 10 degrees above average. The high will slide out to sea tonight, allowing for two separate fronts to slide into the DMV between late Wednesday and Friday afternoon.
The leftover of Isaias moving toward the DMV tonight
Tonight, while a non-zero threat for low-topped tornadoes exists, the overall probabilities have decreased considerably given a more stable air mass in place, compared to places in southern Virginia. The latest from the Storm Prediction Center is that they have kept a Marginal Risk for only the tip of St. Mary's County, MD. The general lack of instability will make for a tougher task for creating severe storms, so with each passing hour the threat of storms diminishes completely.
Isaias moves away, and some sunshine makes a return Original
Today, the remnants of Isaias are slowly pushing offshore, so you’ll see varying amounts of clouds through the late morning and into parts of the afternoon. The one constant, however, will be breezy conditions throughout the DMV. Wind gusting between 15- 25 mph will be felt through mid-afternoon, before relaxing heading into the evening. With a bit of a breeze, high temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s in and around the Beltway, but staying in the 60s out toward Western Maryland.
The leftover of Isaias moving toward the DMV tonight
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Oct 11, 2026 / 03:31 PM EDT Updated: Oct 11, 2026 / 03:31 PM EDT The remnants of Isaias will continue to impact the DMV tonight and into Monday morning. Several inches of rain has been seen across the DMV since early this morning. Check out my weather video for more. @ScottSumnerWx Close Thanks for signing up! Watch for us in your inbox. Top Stories More Stories DC News Now | DC, Virginia, Maryland News, Weather, Traffic, Sports Live Video Video Player is loading.
The leftover of Isaias moving toward the DMV tonight
The leftover of Isaias moving toward the DMV tonight Sun, October 11, 2026 at 3:31 PM EDT The remnants of Isaias will continue to impact the DMV tonight and into Monday morning. Several inches of rain has been seen across the DMV since early this morning. Check out my weather video for more. @ScottSumnerWx Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved.
A wet and possibly stormy at times Sunday Original
With the clouds already in place, a steady stream of wet weather will move in from the south, as the remnants of Isaias move up from the Gulf of America. It’ll take time for the atmosphere to become wet enough for rain aloft to reach the ground, but when it does, a steady stream of showers will move across the DMV. As of Saturday afternoon, forecast models show widespread 1-2″ rain amounts, with some outlier cities and towns receiving 2″+.
Restoring The Reputation Of Monetarism
In one sense, monetarism is always true. By controlling the monetary base we can control the path of NGDP. That is even true in a world where the central bank pays interest on bank reserves (IOR). Unfortunately, with the advent of IOR, monetarism no longer appears to be true, at least to most informed observers. In this post I’ll explain how we can move from a world where monetarism is true but counterintuitive, to a world where monetarism is obviously true.
Tons of sun today and another chilly night ahead
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Oct 6, 2026 / 11:21 AM EDT Updated: Oct 6, 2026 / 11:21 AM EDT This afternoon, we’ll have mainly clear skies, calmer winds and lower dewpoints, allowing temperatures to tumble this chilly overnight and into Tuesday morning’s commute. After a chilly start, temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 60s under plenty of sunshine. Overall, Tuesday will be the coolest day out of the work week.
Tons of sun today and another chilly night ahead
Tons of sun today and another chilly night ahead Tue, October 6, 2026 at 11:21 AM EDT This afternoon, we'll have mainly clear skies, calmer winds and lower dewpoints, allowing temperatures to tumble this chilly overnight and into Tuesday morning's commute. After a chilly start, temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 60s under plenty of sunshine. Overall, Tuesday will be the coolest day out of the work week.
Another cool and cloudy night, with some patchy fog possible
Tonight, once again, a northeast wind should keep temperatures steady and on the cool side. Forecast overnight conditions should be similar to last night, with lows again holding in the 50s from the mountains to the Bay. Monday, a dry but powerful cold front sweeps through the DMV, increasing the winds, but it is also bringing about some sunshine to an area that didn't see much of that this weekend.
Another cool and cloudy night, with some patchy fog possible Original
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Oct 4, 2026 / 04:24 PM EDT Updated: Oct 4, 2026 / 04:24 PM EDT Tonight, once again, a northeast wind should keep temperatures steady and on the cool side. Forecast overnight conditions should be similar to last night, with lows again holding in the 50s from the mountains to the Bay. Monday, a dry but powerful cold front sweeps through the DMV, increasing the winds, but it is also bringing about some sunshine to an area that didn’t see much of that this weekend.
Another weekend, another round of cool wet weather
Tonight, plenty of clouds will be around, keeping the thermometer cool but steady with lows in the 50s. Sunday, rain chances return for most of the DMV, beginning in the early morning hours and continuing into the afternoon. With a northeast wind kicking in and steady to moderate rain at times, temperatures will stay in the 60s, some 10-15 degrees cooler than normal for early October.
Another weekend, another round of cool wet weather
Tonight, plenty of clouds will be around, keeping the thermometer cool but steady with lows in the 50s. Sunday, rain chances return for most of the DMV, beginning in the early morning hours and continuing into the afternoon. With a northeast wind kicking in and steady to moderate rain at times, temperatures will stay in the 60s, some 10-15 degrees cooler than normal for early October.
Another weekend, another round of cool wet weather Original
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Oct 3, 2026 / 04:48 PM EDT Updated: Oct 3, 2026 / 05:23 PM EDT Tonight, plenty of clouds will be around, keeping the thermometer cool but steady with lows in the 50s. Sunday, rain chances return for most of the DMV, beginning in the early morning hours and continuing into the afternoon. With a northeast wind kicking in and steady to moderate rain at times, temperatures will stay in the 60s, some 10-15 degrees cooler than normal for early October.
More sunshine and warmer temps are coming later this week
For the remainder of the evening, our weekend Nor'easter is moving away from the DMV and weakening. That doesn't mean that we will see clearing skies overnight. Instead, it will be mainly cloudy and continue to be cool, with lows once again in the 50s to low 60s. Tuesday, the Nor'easter is still close enough to give the region plenty of clouds, yet it will still be dry and not as windy as the past weekend.
Slightly warmer today, but the true warmth arrives by Thursday
Good Tuesday, everyone! Looking ahead to this afternoon, temperatures will be just a tad warmer than Monday, even with just a little bit of sunshine, as the thermometer gets closer to normal in the 70s. By the middle and tail end of the week, temperatures will climb even further up the ladder, with more and more locations reaching the 80s; some spots could even reach the upper 80s by Thursday, with more in the way of sunshine.
Slightly warmer today, but the true warmth arrives by Thursday
Slightly warmer today, but the true warmth arrives by Thursday Tue, September 29, 2026 at 11:30 AM EDT Good Tuesday, everyone! Looking ahead to this afternoon, temperatures will be just a tad warmer than Monday, even with just a little bit of sunshine, as the thermometer gets closer to normal in the 70s.
Slightly warmer today, but the true warmth arrives by Thursday
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Sep 29, 2026 / 11:30 AM EDT Updated: Sep 29, 2026 / 11:34 AM EDT Good Tuesday, everyone! Looking ahead to this afternoon, temperatures will be just a tad warmer than Monday, even with just a little bit of sunshine, as the thermometer gets closer to normal in the 70s.
More sunshine and warmer temps are coming later this week
For the remainder of the evening, our weekend Nor'easter is moving away from the DMV and weakening. That doesn't mean that we will see clearing skies overnight. Instead, it will be mainly cloudy and continue to be cool, with lows once again in the 50s to low 60s. Tuesday, the Nor'easter is still close enough to give the region plenty of clouds, yet it will still be dry and not as windy as the past weekend.
More sunshine and warmer temps are coming later this week Original
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Sep 28, 2026 / 06:40 PM EDT Updated: Sep 28, 2026 / 06:40 PM EDT For the remainder of the day and into the evening, our weekend Nor’easter is moving away from the DMV and weakening. That doesn’t mean that we will see clearing skies overnight. Instead, it will be mainly cloudy and continue to be cool, with lows once again in the 50s to low 60s.
Nor’Easter slowly moves away overnight, warming up midweek Original
by: Scott Sumner Posted: Sep 27, 2026 / 04:33 PM EDT Updated: Sep 27, 2026 / 04:33 PM EDT With the center of the Nor’easter located over southern N.J., continual waves of light rain showers continue to swing into the DMV this afternoon. There is still some dry air getting wrapped into the storm, so not all the precipitation is reaching the ground, but it just enhances the dreariness of the entire weekend.
Cool, clammy and cloudy describes the weather this weekend
Sunday morning there may be a break in the dreary drizzle and light showers, but the damp, cool conditions may bring showery and windy weather at times during the afternoon and evening. The other aspect of this system that will impact parts of the DMV is the coastal flooding potential. Between tonight and through til Monday, especially at times of high tide, counties along the Chesapeake Bay will see a rise in water levels of some 2.5 feet above normal.
Cool, clammy and cloudy describes the weather this weekend Original
Throughout the afternoon, and mainly east of I-81, bands of light rain have been spiraling back into the DMV, and that trend looks to continue through the night. The farther west the light rain goes, the harder it will be to reach the ground because a slightly drier air mass sits west of I-81. Sunday morning there may be a break in the dreary drizzle and light showers, but the damp, cool conditions may bring showery and windy weather at times during the afternoon and evening.
The Pursuit of Happiness
Today’s post is brought to you by my sponsor, Mechanize. They’re hiring junior software engineers at $300K/year base salary. Apply now! Imagine you are 20 years old and offered the following bet: There will be one spin of a roulette wheel, which contains all the integers from zero to X, where X is not disclosed. If the ball lands on zero you die. Any other outcome wins you $1,000,000 and a pill that prevents cancer and heart disease. Do you take the bet? If I live in Switzerland, probably not.
September has been a wet month Original
While there will be plenty of clouds, it will be a drier day overall than Tuesday. It will also be breezy and cool just like the last 24 hours have been. Heading into Thursday, drier conditions are expected, but it will still be mostly cloudy and cool, as afternoon highs hold in the 60s. The northeast will also continue to bring breezes in the 10–25 mph range as fall continues to feel like the season it is.
Cloudy and chilly day for the start of the fall season
Today will remain cloudy and wet, with on-and-off showers as a disturbance moves through the DMV. In addition to the wet weather, it will be chilly, as a high-pressure area to our north brings in a northeast wind. That will keep the thermometer readings in the 60s in most areas, with a few higher elevations in the 50s in western Maryland. The cool, rainy, and windy weather is forecast to bring about another day of below-normal temperatures heading into Wednesday.
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