Shushanik Hakobyan

1 Introduction Over the last decade, geopolitical divisions have come to the forefront of discussions about international trade and trade policy. In 2014, Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea led to the bilateral imposition of economic sanctions, including trade sanctions, between Russia and several major economies. In 2018, the US–China trade war reversed a multi-decade trend of declining trade barriers between the world's two largest economies.

Aunque las economías del G20 han mostrado una resiliencia notable ante múltiples choques, las perspectivas de crecimiento a medio plazo se han moderado hasta solo el 2,9 por ciento, el nivel más débil desde la crisis financiera global. Al mismo tiempo, la desinflación sigue siendo incompleta para muchos, y la deuda pública alcanzó un récord del 102 por ciento del PIB el año pasado. Además, los desequilibrios externos excesivos se están ampliando de nuevo. Aun así, hay señales alentadoras.

Since the Group of Twenty’s foundational Pittsburgh conference in 2009, progress toward its goal of strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth has been modest. While G20 economies have shown remarkable resilience in navigating multiple shocks, medium-term growth prospects have moderated to just 2.9 percent, the weakest since the global financial crisis. At the same time, disinflation remains incomplete for many, and public debt rose to a record 102 percent of GDP last year.