Steven M. Sears
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Peeking around corners. Time Arbitrageur. VIX's uncle. Question everything.
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Articles by Steven M. Sears
Volatility Is Falling. It’s a Good Time to Buy Options Again.
Options are a good buy again. Copyright © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Volatility Is Falling. It's a Good Time to Buy Options Again. — Barrons.com
Options are a good buy again. The elevated implied volatility levels that have long characterized equity options that expire in one month just collapsed to their lowest levels since January. For most of the past year, investors have aggressively bought bullish call options, which increase in value when stock prices rise. The demand boosted equity-implied volatility, creating conditions in which the associated stocks had to make extraordinary moves for the calls to prove profitable.
Options — The Striking Price: Don't Mourn the Fed Put. Make This Trade Instead. — Barron's
Investors fail to fully appreciate that corporate earnings are the most potent put option in existence — even more powerful than the so-called Fed put, which has long backstopped the market. As long as corporate earnings are growing and profit margins remain robust, stocks should be able to endure all sorts of volatility and risk. This "earnings put" should ease concerns that Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve's new chairman, isn't as eager to mollycoddle investors as his predecessors were.
What Leopold Aschenbrenner's fall says about this overleveraged market
By now everyone knows the story of Leopold Aschenbrenner , the wunderkind investor who parlayed his artificial-intelligence expertise into a huge—and highly leveraged—hedge fund that ran into huge trouble. Worth $45 billion as recently as early July, Aschenbrenner's ironically named Situational Awareness fund had to sell off many of its stocks to Ken Griffin's Citadel at a bargain price .
The AI trade is at a crossroads. How to hedge against another Alphabet dip
The artificial-intelligence trade is getting harder. Consider Alphabet's second-quarter earnings report—and the market's response to it. The Google parent reported negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion and guided third-quarter free cash flow estimates to about $453 million, down from pre-earnings estimates of $7.7 billion. It isn't every day that one of the world's largest companies spends more than it makes. The surprising news comes at a bad time.
The New Way to Bet Big on Hot Stocks
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The new way to bet big on hot stocks
CME Group, which has long tried to attract stock and options investors, may finally find success. The exchange giant has launched futures contracts on single stocks, a failed idea from 24 years ago that CME has cleverly updated and launched at a time when investors have an insatiable desire for derivatives, leverage, and aggressive speculation.
FOMO is driving options prices higher. How to use it to your advantage.
Steven M. Sears Investment success is boring. It involves dull decisions like buying blue-chip stocks and then letting time and compound returns perform their magic. That approach has worked for more than a century, and arguably since time immemorial, but it could well seem outdated to some, with so many stocks making multiyear returns in less than a year. This helps explain the extraordinary interest in options trading , which is creating epic wealth for options dealers.
Hedging Is Disappearing. It’s a Huge Market Risk.
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Hedging is disappearing. It's a huge market risk.
The 2026 investment year is more than half over. The S&P 500 index is already up about 10%, an historically respectable return that might have been higher without the Iran war and stubborn inflation hampering the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates. Options trading patterns mostly amplify the exuberance toward stocks, with hordes of people addicted to buying bullish call options to gamble on rising prices. So far, it's been an easy trade.
Looking to Ride SpaceX Stock Higher? Consider Using Options.
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SpaceX’s IPO will set off an options frenzy. 3 ways to play it.
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How to hedge against a market drop-and get paid for the privilege
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AI Spending Is Weighing on Stocks. Fight Back With This Options Strategy.
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AI spending is weighing on stocks. Fight back with this options strategy.
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Ride the bull higher-but limit your exposure
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It’s time to bet against this roaring stock market with options
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The market is roaring. It's time to bet against it.
Steven M. Sears Stocks are at all-time high levels. The implied volatility of index options is low, corporate earnings remain robust, and the Federal Reserve is about to be led by a billionaire who seems inclined to lower interest rates . The Iran war has pushed oil prices to inflationary levels, but the market has digested even that.
Intel stock was up 115% in April. How to play it with options now.
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Intel stock is up 115% in April. How to play it with options now.
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Intel stock is up 92% in April. How to safeguard your gains.
Steven M. Sears If you lack investment discipline and don't have a plan to handle your winners and losers, you are likely fated to lose more than you should—and to earn less than you could. Intel is up about 92% in April. A gain of that size is rare, and a gain of that size in a month is even rarer. The iShares Semiconductor exchange-traded fund, by contrast, is up about 33% over the same period.
Options Traders Are on Edge About Wild Wednesday. Here Are 2 Smart Moves.
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Don't lose your head in this heady market. Use this options strategy instead.
Steven M. Sears On declines, sell put options and buy call options and stocks. On rallies, take profits on calls and stocks and buy puts. Such is the metronomic trading pattern that has emerged as active investors try to navigate an odd moment for markets and international diplomacy. Though some investors have stepped away from active trading until there is more certainty, or less craziness, around the Iran war , the fervor for stocks remains stunning.
What this market needs is a good helping of fear
Steven M. Sears Everyone knows fear and greed power markets, but few realize that many investors have lost the ability to be fearful. Even now, as America and Iran waver on the cusp of war and oil prices become weaponized, the S&P 500 index is near record highs. This suggests that generational experiences since the 2008-09 financial crisis have changed investor sentiment in ways that aren't well understood.
Oil volatility is high. This options strategy is risky—but could pay off big.
Steven M. Sears If you want to add excitement to your life, try fear-surfing in the Strait of Hormuz . It's risky, but you'll never be within direct shooting range of Iranian drones or military patrols. You won't even need a surfboard.
In the battle of tweets, this strategy offers some upside
Steven M. Sears A new front has opened in the war with Iran: the Battle of Tweets. President Donald Trump posted on Monday that his representatives were negotiating to end the war . Iran posted back that it was a lie. Since then, there has been a lot of back and forth. Some social-media posts seem credible, and others do not. Investors so badly want an end to the war—which obviously harms financial interests—that many of them are acting as if the hostilities will soon end.
Investors Should Position for a Longer Iran War. What to Do Now.
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The VIX Isn’t What It Used to Be. How to Get an Investing Edge Now.
The VIX Isn’t What It Used to Be. How to Get an Investing Edge Now.
3 ways to profit from the Iran crisis with options
There are three opportunities in every crisis. When storm clouds are forming, bold investors can use put-option spreads to profit off the expected stock market decline. When the crisis erupts, they can sell puts to position to buy blue-chip stocks they are prepared to hold for three to five years, and ideally longer. As others come to recognize the crisis, investors can buy call options to profit from a relief rally.
3 Ways to Profit From the Iran Crisis With Options
There are three opportunities in every crisis.
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