Stephen Rand

The latest GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics were never going to dominate the headlines. They arrived just as England’s World Cup campaign came to a dramatic end against Argentina, prompting yet another bout of national soul-searching and, remarkably, a minor diplomatic spat over the Falkland Islands that even required Downing Street to reaffirm Britain’s unwavering commitment to the Islands and their people. And quite right too.

“A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.” The Durants, The Story of Civilization As we move into the second month of the American-Israeli conflict with Iran, it feels like a good moment to step back from the daily noise. Because something more important than oil prices or shipping disruption is beginning to show itself. Yes, the first order effects are obvious. Oil is up. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain.

In last year’s general election, Labour’s candidate took 38% of the Caerphilly constituency vote and held the seat comfortably, as it has done for over a century. Yesterday, they limped home with just 11%. Eleven. That’s not so much a bloody nose as a full dental reconstruction. Keir Starmer’s experiment in “not being a Tory” politics hit the buffers some time ago, but the Caerphilly by-election demonstrates just how mangled the Labour Party chassis actually is.