Stephen Rand

“A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.” The Durants, The Story of Civilization As we move into the second month of the American-Israeli conflict with Iran, it feels like a good moment to step back from the daily noise. Because something more important than oil prices or shipping disruption is beginning to show itself. Yes, the first order effects are obvious. Oil is up. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain.

In last year’s general election, Labour’s candidate took 38% of the Caerphilly constituency vote and held the seat comfortably, as it has done for over a century. Yesterday, they limped home with just 11%. Eleven. That’s not so much a bloody nose as a full dental reconstruction. Keir Starmer’s experiment in “not being a Tory” politics hit the buffers some time ago, but the Caerphilly by-election demonstrates just how mangled the Labour Party chassis actually is.

The Bank of England left the base rate at 4 per cent last week. Cue the predictable headlines: inflation still sticky, growth flat, Britain not yet out of the woods. The Goldilocks dream of two per cent inflation, not too hot, not too cold, remains as elusive as a pink unicorn strutting down Threadneedle Street. In fairness, the Bank is not alone in missing its target; most developed world central banks have been wide of the mark for the best part of a decade.