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Articles by Stuart Theobald
STUART THEOBALD: Hitting the board tenure sweet spot
The Long View At least four major banks face looming deadlines to name new board chairs, raising questions about what the optimal experience level is for independent directors Premium Premium access Independent thinking, reserved for subscribers. This article is exclusively for subscribers. Already have an account? Sign in. New to Financial Mail? Create an account to get started. Read the original article: https://fm.co.za/opinion/2026-10-07-stuart-theobald-hitting-the-board-tenure-sweet-spot/
STUART THEOBALD: Seize the moment to fix procurement
Legislation Now that the apex court has quashed flawed legislation on state procurement — abuse of which is at the heart of waste and corruption — we have a chance to get it right Premium Premium access Independent thinking, reserved for subscribers. Sign in to continue reading if you already subscribe. Your place in this article will be waiting when you return. Read the original article: https://fm.co.za/opinion/2026-09-23-stuart-theobald-seize-the-moment-to-fix-procurement/
STUART THEOBALD: The ANC’s new realism meets an old pledge
The Long View The party has been promising a ‘better life for all’ for decades. In its manifesto for this election, it outlines some concrete steps. But it doesn’t seem like voters are buying it Premium Premium access Independent thinking, reserved for subscribers. Sign in to continue reading if you already subscribe. Your place in this article will be waiting when you return. Read the original article: https://fm.co.za/opinion/2026-09-09-stuart-theobald-the-anc-s-new-realism-meets-an-old-pledge/
STUART THEOBALD: When trust fades: the high cost of leaving the US-led financial system
The Long View The world is losing confidence in US systems, and the cost is going to be high Premium Launch access Welcome to the new Financial Mail. From 6 September onwards you’ll need to be logged in to continue reading all our premium articles. Subscribe now to keep access to the FM’s top reporting and analysis, as well as our cracking daily news and markets content. We are witnessing the end of the US century, and I don’t think the consequences have fully landed.
STUART THEOBALD: The persuasive case for local stocks
The Long View Look at fundamentals such as yields on dividends and earnings, and it’s clear that South African shares are among the best-performing emerging market options Premium Launch access Welcome to the new Financial Mail. For a limited time, we’ve unlocked every premium article. Subscribe now to keep reading Financial Mail’s reporting and analysis when the launch offer ends. Picture: ISTOCK Picture: ISTOCK In these bullish times, emerging markets (EMs) have been the stars.
STUART THEOBALD: The PIC’s real problem is an identity crisis
Here is a controversial suggestion: shut down the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF) and use its assets to pay off government debt. Why? Start with the numbers. The GEPF portfolio has earned an average return of 7.2% over the past 10 years. Over the same period, the government has paid around 8.5%-10% to borrow in the market. This is like saving into an account while borrowing on a credit card at a higher rate. It is not rational.
STUART THEOBALD | Why Enoch Godongwana is right to reject a wealth tax
Inequality in South Africa is extreme and has many dire consequences, driving instability, poor productivity and damage to the fiscus. So, I can understand why a wealth tax sounds like a good idea. On the surface it straightforwardly tackles the problem, reallocating from the wealthiest to enable greater state resources. Finance minister Enoch Godongwana, however, poured cold water on the idea last week in parliament, saying that a wealth tax wasn’t optimal for the country.
Return of the rankings
The FM Ranking the Analysts survived a near-death experience. It was brought back to life because of the clear message from the market that it is needed and wanted. When the research did not run in 2025, our inboxes and WhatsApps lit up. The feedback made it clear that the awards are important to the health of capital markets in South Africa. They provide a visible benchmark of excellence and bring transparency to investment research in the South African markets.
STUART THEOBALD | Did South Africa pass a crime test it didn’t deserve to?
South Africa exited the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) greylist in October 2025. The event was celebrated as a hard-won vindication after 32 months of intensive cross-departmental reform, new legislation, rebuilt institutional capacity and a demonstration that the country could clean up its act on money-laundering and terrorist financing. The exit coincided with ratings agency upgrades and contributed to a broader sense of positive momentum.
STUART THEOBALD | Informal lenders benefit most from new pension rules
We are almost two years into the biggest reform of the pension system for decades. The two-pot system, introduced in September 2024, allows pension savers to withdraw a portion of their retirement savings without leaving their jobs. The question now is whether it is working as intended. The opening act was dramatic. In the first nine months R57bn was withdrawn from retirement savings. Most of it went to paying down debt — particularly to nonbank lenders — with some covering education costs.
STUART THEOBALD | SA’s investment challenge is about opportunity, not capital
South Africa has a shortage of places worth investing in, not a problem of available investment capital. That distinction matters, and it is the one most conspicuously absent from the debate about whether to reverse the 2022 increase in the institutional offshore investment limit from 30% to 45%.
STUART THEOBALD | Heedless BEE policy shift could hit black entrepreneurs
We are amid a deep shift in policy thinking on black empowerment, but no-one is doing the homework to make it a comfortable one. Between proposed changes from the department of trade, industry & competition to broad-based BEE (BBBEE) rules and the National Treasury’s proposed changes to the government’s preferential procurement rules, the underlying pressure drivers of transformation in the economy are shifting radically.
STUART THEOBALD | African Bank case spotlights regulatory conflict
The Financial Services Tribunal published a ruling last week that received some coverage but deserves more analytical attention. The case ― African Bank versus the Prudential Authority ― reads on the surface as a routine compliance dispute. It is not. It raises substantive questions about circular capital, depositor protection and an unresolved structural conflict at the heart of South African banking regulation that this episode has made harder to ignore. Briefly, the facts are as follows.
STUART THEOBALD | Transformation Fund a threat to transformation
Thousands of black-owned small businesses are at risk. The department of trade, industry & competition’s draft BEE code amendments, published in January, would systematically penalise the corporate enterprise & supplier development (ESD) programmes that currently provide these businesses with capital, mentorship and market access — and redirect that money to a Transformation Fund with no track record, no demonstrated capacity and no convincing plan. Not all ESD programmes are good.
STUART THEOBALD | Shoprite inflation data challenges official statistics
Shoprite’s latest results contained a number that should be worrying statisticians. For the second half of 2025 the supermarket chain reported internal food inflation of 0.7%. Statistics SA’s equivalent measure for food and nonalcoholic beverages was 4.7% for the same period. That is a sevenfold gap that demands an explanation. It is worth stepping back before diving in. Philosophers of science will tell you that any measurement involves some error from reality — perfect knowledge is impossible.
STUART THEOBALD | Treasury’s reform pitch faces oil shock reality
The National Treasury’s international roadshow teams have spent the past year telling investors South Africa is on an improving trajectory. They’ve had an easy audience — emerging markets outperformed developed markets by about 13 percentage points last year, bonds rallied hard and the rand was one of the world’s best-performing currencies. Everyone was making money, so audiences readily bought the pitch. The Iran war has changed that.
STUART THEOBALD | Reserve Bank wants terminology shift, but what will it achieve?
When the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) said a month ago that it would review the prime lending rate, there were alarming misconceptions. Some wishful thinkers interpreted it as an effort to reduce the spread between prime and the repo rate, and ultimately reduce the cost of debt to South Africans. Some saw this spread, which has been firmly set at 350 basis points (bps) for a decade-and-a-half, as a profit scrape by the banks, which should finally get their comeuppance.
STUART THEOBALD: Why the Transformation Fund risks repeating BEE’s costliest mistakes
Regular readers will know I am not one of the BEE cynics. I believe empowerment policy has done a lot of good in its primary objective of undoing the racial skew in the distribution of wealth in this country. But its impact has been uneven, with some unintended consequences. The department of trade, industry & competition appears to be making a genuine effort to improve it. But one of its key initiatives, the Transformation Fund, risks creating more problems than it solves.
The SARB’s review of prime will not reduce the cost of debt
There’s a lot of nonsense being said about the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) review of the prime interest rate. First point: no, this is not about reducing the spread between repo and prime. Sorry to those with prime-linked debt. The prime rate is a convention. That means it is a reference point that everyone understands. It allows people to compare easily quotes from different lenders. It is not a mechanical pricing mechanism.
No SARB's review of prime will not reduce the cost of debt
By Stuart Theobald, executive chairman There’s a lot of nonsense being said about the SARB’s review of the prime interest rate. First point: No this is not about reducing the spread between repo and prime. Sorry to those with prime-linked debt. The prime rate is a convention. That means it is a reference point that everyone understands. It allows people to compare easily quotes from different lenders. It is not a mechanical pricing mechanism.
STUART THEOBALD: JSE posts strongest relative rally in decades as domestic risks recede
The South African equity market has delivered its strongest relative rally in modern history. From its April 2025 low to now, the JSE all share has outperformed the MSCI world index by 45 percentage points, rallying 76% in rand terms. Nothing in the past two decades comes close to this performance gap. The scale of this move demands explanation. South Africa typically outperforms on the downside but underperforms in recoveries.
STUART THEOBALD: ‘Investment strike’ narrative debunked: Companies align with profits
Are South African companies on an investment strike? It’s a narrative some like to spread, declaring that corporate South Africa is acting against the country’s best interests. The greedy capitalists are hoarding their loot rather than spending it on growing the economy. The problem with this narrative is that the data doesn’t back it up.
STUART THEOBALD: S&P upgrade sparks hope for SA’s investment grade return
To an equity analyst, ratings agencies are an odd thing. An issuer of debt securities pays a company for its analysts to produce an opinion on how likely the issuer is to pay its debts. It is the equivalent of “issuer paid” research in the equities world, when a company pays an analyst to produce an opinion, one which is invariably “buy”. Such research has little influence on investment decision-makers.
STUART THEOBALD: Case against inequality is ultimately a moral one
Should investors care about inequality? “Yes” is the answer the G20 is hearing. A report released this week in advance of the G20 summit points out that 90% of the world’s population lives in countries with high inequality and that it is a bad thing. It was commissioned by President Cyril Ramaphosa from a committee of experts led by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. The specific mechanism that makes inequality bad for financial markets is not clearly spelt out.
STUART THEOBALD: A 3% shortcut to BEE compliance - smart incentive or costly loophole?
There is plenty to do on a visit to the falls — hiking, mountain biking, bird watching and keeping your food safe from hungry vervet monkeys
STUART THEOBALD: JSE powers ahead, leaving pessimists in its wake
Weaker greenback supports metal ahead of Fed’s policy meeting, where central bank is expected to cut rates It is the first under the Reserve Bank’s new ‘preferred’ 3% inflation target and the last before the medium-term budget Lack of high-speed internet connectivity and a shortage of funds to blame ANC president says continued poor performance by municipalities risks further eroding the party’s performance Despite tariff-driven inflation risks and fragile growth, the monetary policy...
STUART THEOBALD: Curro deal leverages the tax system through private philanthropy
ON THE MONEY What do you call it when someone pays R7.2bn for a company (https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/2025-08-27-jannie-mouton-rewrites-private-education-playbook-with-r72bn-offer-for-curro/) and then contractually gives up all rights to ever see a cent of profit? In Jannie Mouton’s case, you call it the largest education charity donation in SA history, and a sophisticated piece of tax planning.
Beyond Eliminating Waste: The Role of Incentives in Outcomes-Based Finance
Working Paper Beyond Eliminating Waste: The Role of Incentives in Outcomes-Based Finance[1] By Stuart Theobald[2] [Download this paper as a PDF] Abstract Outcomes-based finance (OBF) eliminates waste by ensuring public payments only occur when verified outcomes are achieved. This feature is well established in the literature. This paper aims to extend the analysis by assessing the incentive effects on suppliers, which can reduce the unit cost of outcomes beyond waste elimination.
STUART THEOBALD: Shift risk from shareholders to stimulate infrastructure lending
Frustrated coach Rassie Erasmus rings the changes to get world champs back on winning track
STUART THEOBALD: The short-term pain of tariff hikes is real
INFLATION TARGET Finance ministry and central bank seem to be out of step, says Nedbank CEO Jason Quinn
STUART THEOBALD: Consequences for manipulating markets no matter where you are based
On the Money Earlier this month, the high court delivered a victory to the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/financial-services/2025-07-14-high-court-gives-regulator-nod-to-fine-viceroy-over-capitec-report/) (FSCA) in its battle against Viceroy Research, an outfit best known for having tanked the Capitec share price in 2018 by publishing some poor research on the bank.
STUART THEOBALD: Markets price in a multipolar world in which US no longer makes rules
The reasons for major market dislocations are often hard to determine, even in retrospect. The 1987 Black Monday crash, which wiped 22% off the New York Stock Exchange in a day, happened after buoyant optimism that the collapse of communism and growth of global trade would drive unprecedented prosperity. Then there was a sudden loss of confidence.
STUART THEOBALD: Markets price in a multipolar world in which US no longer makes rules
The reasons for major market dislocations are often hard to determine, even in retrospect. The 1987 Black Monday crash, which wiped 22% off the New York Stock Exchange in a day, happened after buoyant optimism that the collapse of communism and growth of global trade would drive unprecedented prosperity. Then there was a sudden loss of confidence.
STUART THEOBALD: Legal gap an issue as banks balance rights and fight crime
On the Money The report in this newspaper on June 24 about banks shutting down accounts (https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/financial-services/2025-06-24-how-capitec-stopped-alleged-gold-mafia-from-moving-foreign-currency/) linked to alleged gold smuggling operations illuminates a paradox at the heart of modern finance: the institutions we depend on for basic economic participation have become our most powerful weapons against organised crime. This is no accident.
STUART THEOBALD: Life after the reality show: where does SA go from here?
Reality TV is not about what is happening on set. It’s about how it makes the audience feel. Donald Trump knows this. The “surprise” video he played purporting to show genocide in SA created audience tension.
STUART THEOBALD: The sorry saga of trying to fix state-owned banks
It is fair to say that government-owned banks — the state institutions that are legally permitted to accept deposits — are not meeting even basic standards of prudence. Ithala, the KwaZulu-Natal development finance institution that was permitted to operate as a bank, is in a messy liquidation process. The Postbank has been getting disclaimed audit opinions and has two major fraud investigations under way into thefts and tender irregularities.
STUART THEOBALD: The sorry saga of trying to fix state-owned banks
It is fair to say that government-owned banks — the state institutions that are legally permitted to accept deposits — are not meeting even basic standards of prudence. Ithala, the KwaZulu-Natal development finance institution that was permitted to operate as a bank, is in a messy liquidation process. The Postbank has been getting disclaimed audit opinions and has two major fraud investigations under way into thefts and tender irregularities.
STUART THEOBALD: Treasury must come up with a new plan
On The Money Six months ago, most South Africans would have considered a failure to pass a budget a catastrophic financial event. Yet here we are, still with no budget two months after it should have been tabled, and most people are just getting on with it. The government continues to work, and the real economic impact has been negligible. But as the National Treasury works on its third attempt at an acceptable budget, there are serious risks ahead.
STUART THEOBALD: Understanding that Trump runs on gut instinct will help shape response
The 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 lockdowns, Donald Trump’s tariffs. These events create radical uncertainty — a technical term that means an event to which it was impossible to put a probability (and are sometimes therefore called “black swans”). The three have different features, to be sure. The collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered a loss of confidence in financial markets, emerged from many panicked human decisions.
STUART THEOBALD: Transformation Fund worsens disease of ‘inputitis’
On the Money I have previously bemoaned in this column the disease of “inputitis” that burdens BEE policy in SA. The policy is overly focused on inputs — the amount that is spent, in effect — instead of outputs, the amount of transformation and black empowerment that is achieved. As a result, we waste resources and fail to keep our eyes on the prize.
STUART THEOBALD: Raid the piggybanks, add to the debt pile or cut spending
By the time you read this it may, or may not, be clear that we will be getting a budget speech on Wednesday afternoon. The efforts to find a workable plan that navigates the red lines put down by parties across the government of national unity (GNU) are going to the wire. The rabbit is stubbornly refusing to emerge from the hat. VAT is the main issue. The DA (and at times the ANC itself) are resolutely against any increase.
STUART THEOBALD: Budgeting in an environment of stagnant growth
ON THE MONEY In many democracies disagreement about the budget is a normal part of political life. Wrangling over government’s spending plans happens in parliament as the necessary pieces of legislation to enact a budget are debated. SA has been an anomaly. For the last 30 years budgets have been tabled by the finance minister and then more-or-less rubber-stamped through parliament. That reflected the ANC’s majority, but also the authority the finance ministry wielded in the cabinet. ..
STUART THEOBALD: Not a bad time to be risk averse
As South Africans can tell their American friends, Mr Market is a brutal disciplinarian of political recklessness. When, at the height of state capture, then president Jacob Zuma fired finance minister Nhlanhla Nene in December 2015, replacing him with Des van Rooyen, the response was brutal. Bond yields rocketed 150 basis points, the rand collapsed more than 10% and bank shares lost more than 18%, precipitating a potential financial crisis.
STUART THEOBALD: Competition regulators huge bar to investment
On the Money Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers. By all accounts last week’s Team SA performance in Davos was a triumph, riding a wave of renewed interest in SA. The pitch is winning fans on the back of successful reforms, catalysed by the global attention hosting the G20 is bringing us. This interest should trigger improved foreign investor interest in SA assets.
STUART THEOBALD: Bond market points to huge Eskom turnaround
On The Money The bond market is pricing Eskom risk at its best level yet. At least that is what we must conclude from the relative yield of Eskom’s guaranteed bonds vs nonguaranteed bonds. The guaranteed bonds have the full government balance sheet behind them, while the nonguaranteed ones have recourse only to Eskom’s balance sheet. Bloomberg data shows the difference between the two yields has fallen to just 37 basis points, from post-Covid highs of more than 450 basis points in mid-2022. ..
STUART THEOBALD: Good stats are a wise investment
ON THE MONEY Statistics agencies, here and abroad, are under fire. The UK’s main statistics agency is in trouble because it cannot produce reliable figures for unemployment. The head of the Bank of England has described it as a “substantial problem” that affects the central bank’s ability to set interest rates, as well as commercial banks’ decisions over bad debt provisions and risk appetite. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) now says it will take until 2027 to fix its figures.
STUART THEOBALD: Climate finance is the developing world’s door to commercial capital
ON THE MONEY Remember the good old days, when global investors were pouring money into Africa just because they wanted to get rich? Up until the financial crisis, emerging markets were hot, and Africa was the last frontier. Mark Mobius, an emerging markets investment pioneer, was the best-selling author of Passport to Profits.
STUART THEOBALD: Competitive economy is in public interest -and competition authorities can help deliver it
The much-vaunted forward-heavy bench split, which tested the elasticity of the team in Edinburgh, is again the talk of London town
STUART THEOBALD: Can SA set itself free of the greylist’s final six requirements?
On the money The FATF acronym now rolls off the tongue of many South Africans. The economic impact of greylisting by the international money laundering and terror finance watchdog is difficult to put hard numbers to, but you can be sure it is a quiet suppressor of the economy.
STUART THEOBALD: Tito Mboweni - an SA hero and friend to many
One of my earliest recollections of Tito Mboweni, who died on Saturday (https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2024-10-13-former-finance-minister-tito-mboweni-has-died/), was a visit to Times Media in the early 2000s where he brazenly declared to assembled editors that “everything was on the record”.
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