T. Pizzuti

Treasury bond futures appear ready for a sizeable bounce that could persist for several months or longer. Here we show how the same move might appear in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT). Although we continue to believe the major high in bonds was set in 2020, the downward pattern since that time might be complete. It is possible to count a five-wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) impulsive move into the TLT support zone near 82.00.

The Euro is nearing important price resistance, and we believe there is potential for a downward reversal that would take it to new lows. Today we present our bearish Elliott wave scenario for the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: FXE). The last time we wrote about FXE, it was testing the upper boundary of the channel shown on the monthly chart below.

We still believe there is a bullish opportunity nearby for treasury bonds, although the support areas we identified in our September post failed to hold. The break of expected support has caused us to revise our Elliott wave count slightly. Looking at the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) we now think the best Elliott wave count is to treat price action since the December 2023 high as a sideways correction.