Abby Livingston
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@PuckNews writer, Almanac of American Politics. Ex-TX Tribune, Roll Call, CNN, NBC, soap opera intern. I ❤️ Springsteen, softball, Longhorns & America
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Articles by Abby Livingston
Inside John Cornyn’s Brutal Loss to Ken Paxton
By the time Sen. John Cornyn suffered his 28-point runoff rout last night, operatives in both parties had already resigned themselves to the likelihood that Ken Paxton, the Trump-blessed, scandal-pocked Texas attorney general, would be the Republican standard-bearer in the nation’s largest red state this fall. When I caught up with a pro-Cornyn Republican last week, an hour after the president endorsed Paxton, he was already on his second vodka tonic.
“The Only Way Out Is Through”: Democrats Prep for Scorched-Earth Redistricting War
House Democrats had less than a week to savor their redistricting victory in Virginia before conservatives punched back—twice. First came the passage of Ron DeSantis’s new Florida map, which could eliminate four Democratic seats. Then came the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision, which blew up Voting Rights Act protections for minority-majority districts across the South.
Inside Democrats’ Panic Over the Supreme Court’s VRA Ruling
House Democrats face challenges from conservative redistricting efforts in Florida and a Supreme Court ruling that could impact minority-majority districts across the South. Both parties have abandoned caution in redistricting, drawing aggressive maps for maximum seats that could backfire in the future, particularly impacting the Congressional Black Caucus.
Johnson's Margin Call: GOP Could Lose House Before November
Washington has largely accepted the conventional wisdom that Democrats will flip the House in November—the main debate among increasingly giddy Dem operatives is how big the wave will be, and whether they might have a shot at the Senate, too. But lately, the conversation on Capitol Hill has coalesced around another question: Could the House actually flip before November?
Johnson's Margin Call: GOP Could Lose House Before November
Washington has largely accepted the conventional wisdom that Democrats will flip the House in November—the main debate among increasingly giddy Dem operatives is how big the wave will be, and whether they might have a shot at the Senate, too. But lately, the conversation on Capitol Hill has coalesced around another question: Could the House actually flip before November? It’s not something people like to talk about, given the ghoulish aspects of the topic.
Trump’s Midterm Divine Comedy
About a week after Donald Trump launched an extraordinary feud with the first U.S.-born pope—declaring Leo XIV “weak on crime” before posting an A.I.-generated image of himself as Jesus Christ—the administration’s highest-ranking Catholic attempted to deescalate. This weekend, Vice President J.D. Vance said he was grateful to the pontiff for stating, in essence, that the conflict between the White House and the Vatican was overblown.
Will Trump’s Attacks on Pope Leo Move Voters?
Vice President J.D. Vance attempted to deescalate the conflict with Pope Leo XIV after Trump's feud, acknowledging that the conflict was overblown. The political impact of Trump's attacks on the pope is likely to be felt in imperative Catholic blocs, such as Latinos and white working-class Reagan Democrats. Trump's antagonism towards the pope could potentially drive a wedge between Pope Leo and his flock, impacting key House and Senate races in heavily Catholic areas.
The Tit-for-Tat That Isn’t
Swalwell and Gonzales’s twin resignations looked like a neat partisan swap: one Democrat for one Republican, leaving the G.O.P.’s three-seat House margin intact. The departure of the two other members currently in ethical jeopardy—Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Republican Cory Mills, both of Florida—would also seem to neutralize any partisan advantage should they resign or get expelled.
The Senate Oracle Speaks!
Jessica Taylor, the renowned Senate analyst at the Cook Political Report, has the power to alter moods all over the Hill. Every minute update to her closely tracked ratings—say, moving a race out of the “tossup” column—can validate the perception of a party’s momentum… or serve as a harsh sobriety check. That’s especially true when Taylor moves multiple races all in one direction, as she did today when the Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats.
Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor on Trump’s Nadir
Senate analyst Jessica Taylor shifted four Senate races toward Democrats, including Georgia and North Carolina, giving Democrats a path to retaking the Senate. Republicans remain the favorite to hold on to the Senate, but President Trump's approval ratings, high gas prices, and instability in the Middle East are hurting Republican candidates.
Did Trump Just Bail Out Newsom?
Until recently, California Democrats were staring down a very real but unthinkable possibility: losing their first statewide race since the Schwarzenegger era. It’s not that California has moved right—Democrats control the governor’s mansion, both U.S. Senate seats, much of the House delegation, and maintain supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Rather, the problem was the state’s top-two (or “jungle”) primary system.
Did Trump Endorsement Rescue CA Dems From Disaster?
Trump's endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton in the California gubernatorial race has the potential to secure a spot for a Democrat in the general election, potentially saving the Democratic party from a lockout. The endorsement may also free up tens of millions of dollars for Democratic groups who would have otherwise had to spend heavily to elevate one of the two leading GOP gubernatorial candidates.
The Mysteries of Spanberger
Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who campaigned on good vibes and affordability, has found herself in a post-honeymoon miasma of political fury and redistricting hell. Spanberger supported bipartisan redistricting in 2020, but has since reconsidered. Yes, she’s claimed that her change of heart occurred only after Trump’s land grab last summer in Texas.
The Mysteries of Spanberger
15 hours ago A political newcomer and former reality star running in Virginia’s Democratic senatorial primary is causing an uproar in his party after breaking with them on gerrymandering and a slew of new gun control efforts. Mark Moran, a former contestant on the HBOMax series "FBoy Island" and previously a …
AIPAC Aftershocks & Pritzker’s ’28 Coup
Last week, on St. Patrick’s Day, the entire Democratic establishment watched as Illinois voters went to the polls to select their midterm nominees. The primary races had been absolutely besieged by outside spending from groups aligned with Israel, crypto, and the A.I. industry—not to mention from the state’s own billionaire governor, JB Pritzker.
What Illinois Taught Democrats About Outside Spending
Last week, on St. Patrick’s Day, the entire Democratic establishment watched as Illinois voters went to the polls to select their midterm nominees. The primary races, after all, had been absolutely besieged by outside spending from groups aligned with Israel, crypto, and the A.I. industry—not to mention from the state’s own billionaire governor, JB Pritzker.
Children of the Cornyn
Republican John Cornyn, the four-term senior senator from Texas, is suddenly fighting for his political life to hold the seat he’s occupied for more than two decades. Party operatives have practically begged Donald Trump to jump into the primary runoff race and endorse Cornyn over his scandal-plagued but scrappy opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. And yet, Trump has held off—perhaps because he views the dangling sword over Cornyn’s head as leverage, or he sees a bit of himself in Paxton.
Crypto’s $200M War on Democratic House Incumbents
Texas Democratic Rep. Al Green is perhaps best known for waving his cane during last year’s State of the Union address, and for his ceaseless determination to impeach President Trump. But the 11-term congressman may soon attain a new distinction as one of the first House members to lose reelection this cycle. On March 3, the 79-year-old lawmaker will face a serious primary threat from the 37-year-old Rep.
Is Jasmine Crockett Even Trying to Win in Texas?
By every conventional standard, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is running an underwhelming Senate primary campaign. Her Democratic rival, State Rep. James Talarico, has outraised her by a two-to-one margin; she’s getting swamped on television by Talarico ads; and she reportedly did not have a formal campaign manager as late as this month.
Michigan Senate Primary Could Cost Democrats Key 2026 Seat
Of all the races in all the states in a turbulent midterm year, the battle for Michigan’s open Senate seat is becoming something of an obsession for political operatives in both parties. It’s the highest-stakes, most unpredictable contest on the map in 2026: Dems fret that a vicious primary could cost them retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat, while Republicans are salivating over the prospect of a pickup in a pivotal battleground—even in a tough year for the G.O.P.
This Week's Two Bearded Jews Talk Politics
A quick video wrap up of politics for the week. Donald Trump creates so much news every week that it's hard to cover it all in written columns. So this will provide a short video wrap up of the week, which will highlight for you the most important take away from what happened. A quick video wrap up of politics for the week. Donald Trump creates so much news every week that it's hard to cover it all in written columns.
GOP Loss in Texas Special Election Signals ’26 Blue Tsunami
There’s a reason this weekend’s Democratic upset in a special election for the Texas State Senate is making headlines nationally. In 2024, Donald Trump won the district in Tarrant County, which includes the northern half of Fort Worth, by 17 points. It is, quite literally, Taylor Sheridan’s Landman country—an area built on ranching, oil, and defense contracts that hasn’t voted for a Democratic state senator since 1978.
Spanberger’s Power Play Sparks GOP ‘Bond Villain’ Attack
On January 16, just one day before taking office, Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger demanded the resignations of five University of Virginia board members appointed by her Republican predecessor, Glenn Youngkin. At the same moment, the state’s new attorney general, Democrat Jay Jones, forced out the legal counsels at George Mason University and the Virginia Military Institute.
Klobuchar’s Minnesota Succession Mess
It has been a horrible year for Minnesota Democrats. In the last seven months, they’ve grappled with the assassination of a former state House speaker, a ballooning statewide fraud scandal, and now President Trump’s escalating pseudo-military occupation of Minneapolis. “God, what a mess,” said a Democratic consultant who’s worked in Minnesota. “I don’t even know what to say. What a mess.”
Pelosi Replacement Race Heats Up as California Battles Loom
There are many forces weighing on the 2026 midterm map—gerrymandering, high-profile retirements, generational political warfare—and California’s dealing with them all. And few congressional battles will be as dramatic as the primary to replace Nancy Pelosi, whose exit from the House next year will kick off a messy transfer of power on her home turf.
The Stock Trading Ban Is Gaining Bipartisan Momentum
Pelosi’s portfolio is likely the most scrutinized in congressional history—there’s even an E.T.F. that tracks her trades—but with her impending retirement, a G.O.P. consultant told me that Republicans will “need to find somebody else to beat up on.” It won’t be her successor, Jeffries—he’s pro-ban, himself.
The Stock Trading Ban Is Gaining Bipartisan Momentum
It’s a rare sight on Capitol Hill to find the far right (Chip Roy, Anna Paulina Luna) standing shoulder to shoulder with the far left (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Pramila Jayapal). But that’s exactly what happened at a news conference last fall, when firebrand Republicans and progressive Democrats alike pushed for a ban on the once routine practice of congressional stock trading. Of course, in the 119th Congress, true bipartisanship is sometimes a negative indicator.
2026 Midterm Analysis: GOP Reckoning, Trump’s Impact & More
It’s hard to recall a midterm primary season as unsettled and unpredictable as the one ahead. In 2025, of course, President Donald Trump triggered a House redistricting arms race in Texas, which was quickly answered by California’s Gavin Newsom—redrawing old district lines and potentially ending long congressional careers on both sides of the aisle.
Goldman Primary Challenge Signals Broad Democratic Upheaval
As Capitol Hill began packing up for the holidays, an intriguing piece of gossip wended its way through House Democratic circles: Was Dan Goldman in primary trouble? Goldman, after all, is something of a rising star in the party: rich, handsome, and as comfortable in the green room as he is clashing with Kristi Noem in a committee hearing.
Goldman Primary Challenge Signals Broad Democratic Upheaval
Generate Key Takeaways As Capitol Hill began packing up for the holidays, an intriguing piece of gossip wended its way through House Democratic circles: Was Dan Goldman in primary trouble? Goldman, after all, is something of a rising star in the party: rich, handsome, and as comfortable in the green room as he is clashing with Kristi Noem in a committee hearing.
Can a 2026 Blue Wave Finally Deliver a Dem Senator From Texas?
Last spring, when Trump’s popularity was still near its post-inaugural peak, political operatives scoffed at the chutzpah of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s early list of districts the party considered “in play” for 2026. At the time, the D.C.C.C.’s targets included more than half a dozen districts that were firmly Republican leaning: Rep. Andy Ogles’ seat in deep-red Tennessee; Rep. Cory Mills’s seat in central Florida; even the Kentucky district Rep.
The A.O.C. of the South
Washington is back from a long Thanksgiving recess, and all eyes are on central Tennessee, where tomorrow’s special election could predict which party has the upper hand headed into the midterms. The state’s 7th district, encompassing parts of Nashville and stretching west, should be a safe Republican hold—Trump won it by 22 points last year, and its House seat has been in Republican hands since the 1980s.
The A.O.C. of the South: Tennessee Special Election Preview
Washington is back from a long Thanksgiving recess, and all eyes are on central Tennessee, where tomorrow’s special election could predict which party has the upper hand headed into the midterms. The state’s 7th district, encompassing parts of Nashville and stretching west, should be a safe Republican hold—Trump won it by 22 points last year, and its House seat has been in Republican hands since the 1980s.
Is Trump Officially Entering His Lame-Duck Era?
It’s hard to spin the recent avalanche of bad headlines for the G.O.P. To hear top Republicans tell it, this was supposed to be a season of celebration, after Democrats largely capitulated in ending the government shutdown. Yet Democrats won elections up and down the ballot in November, voters are moving in their direction in numerous polls, and there’s no question that the White House’s about-face on the Epstein files was forced by the prospect of a full-on revolt against the president.
Trump’s Texas Mess: How G.O.P. Redistricting May Backfire
Back in July, when Gavin Newsom began floating his redistricting plan for California, it had seemed like a longshot corrective to the G.O.P.’s five-seat land grab in Texas. After all, the Republican effort in the Lone Star State appeared to be a fait accompli, thanks to the state’s compliant legislature. Meanwhile, Newsom’s counterattack required the approval of California voters who, polls showed, were lukewarm on what Democrats used to call gerrymandering.
Sherrill’s Odds: Inside New Jersey’s Governor Race
Generate Key Takeaways New Jersey Republican consultant Mike DuHaime helped elect George W. Bush and worked on John McCain’s presidential campaign, but he’s perhaps best known as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s political brain. Even Jersey Democrats will privately admit that he’s one of their most frustrating political foes.
Sherrill’s Odds: Inside New Jersey’s Governor Race
New Jersey Republican consultant Mike DuHaime helped elect George W. Bush and worked on John McCain’s presidential campaign, but he’s perhaps best known as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s political brain. Even Jersey Democrats will privately admit that he’s one of their most frustrating political foes. So he was exactly the guy I wanted to chat up regarding the one great unknown of this election cycle: the Garden State gubernatorial battle between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli.
Maine Senate Primary: Democrats Split on Platner Scandal
Last week, the Democratic operative world erupted over revelations that Graham Platner—the 41-year-old oysterman and Democratic Maine Senate hopeful—had not only made racist and misogynistic comments on Reddit but also sported a tattoo associated with… the Nazis. Platner, a veteran who did three tours in Iraq, got ahead of the news with a friendly appearance on Pod Save America, in which he said that he’d drunkenly gotten the tattoo while on leave in Croatia and had no idea about the affiliation.
Maine Senate Primary: Democrats Split on Platner Scandal
Generate Key Takeaways Last week, the Democratic operative world erupted over revelations that Graham Platner—the 41-year-old oysterman and Democratic Maine Senate hopeful—had not only made racist and misogynistic comments on Reddit but also sported a tattoo associated with… the Nazis.
Inside Kevin McCarthy’s Redistricting Vanishing Act
Back in August, during the early days of the California redistricting battle, the fight looked destined to come down to a familiar mix of vengeance and money. California Democrats Gavin Newsom and Nancy Pelosi had responded to the radical, Trump-instigated, mid-decade redraw of the Texas congressional map with remarkable speed and determination, offering up a plan to reconfigure their own state map and send as many as five Republicans into early retirement.
Texas Senate Intrigue & GOP Redistricting Stalemate
After months of trailing Texas A.G. Ken Paxton in the primary for his own Senate seat, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn appears to have made up ground, pulling alongside Paxton in a pair of recent polls. You could practically hear the collective exhale from state and national Republicans, many of whom are not only loyal to Cornyn personally but also, perhaps more to the point, view him as the most electable candidate in the general.
Blue Wave Warning Signs & The New Senate Math
One of the most critical tests of the pre-midterm electoral mood will occur just over a month from now: the off-year governors’ elections in New Jersey and Virginia, both blue states that lurched rightward in 2024. In each case, Democrats are hoping that their candidates—Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, both moderate women with national security backgrounds—will offer a model of a next-gen Dem who can win swing voters.
Hakeem Jeffries’ Leadership Style is Dividing House Democrats
On Friday, House Democrats found themselves divided and under attack from Republicans over a ceremonial resolution concerning the slain conservative influencer Charlie Kirk. Dozens of Democrats had voted against honoring his “life and legacy” over what they said were his views on race, antisemitic rhetoric, and instances of tacit support for political violence—which meant they were also voting against the language condemning his murder.
Inside House Democrats’ Anti-Gerontocracy Movement
Among the many complicated factors that have neutered Democratic power in this country—the alienation of young men, the rightward drift of certain minority voters, the MAGAfication of the Big Tech class, etcetera—one is relatively quite simple: age. It was Joe Biden’s age that doomed his presidential campaign and arguably dragged down Kamala’s; it was R.B.G.’s death under a Republican president that created the conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court.
The Zohran Mamdani Agita Wracking the D.N.C.
Last week, in between posts about Epstein and R.F.K., the Democratic National Committee did something that wouldn’t be all that unusual in normal times: It approvingly tweeted out a 32-second clip of the party’s nominee for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
The Mamdani Agita Wracking the D.N.C.
Last week, in between posts about Epstein and R.F.K., the Democratic National Committee did something that wouldn’t be all that unusual in normal times: It approvingly tweeted out a 32-second clip of the party’s nominee for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
How Redistricting Might Threaten Dems’ Midterm Odds
Washington is roaring back to life this week as members return from a tumultuous recess to an even more chaotic fall session, opening with this week’s Epstein showdown, the ongoing implosion of the C.D.C., and a looming shutdown fight. But the post–Labor Day window also marks the beginning of a midterm cycle that’s unlike anything most political operatives have ever seen.
Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman Talks Redistricting
Dave Wasserman, the ubiquitous elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, has been following redistricting for decades—not only was it the subject of his college thesis, but his X handle is literally @Redistrict. As the lead author of Cook’s signature product, the Partisan Voting Index (PVI), Wasserman is in charge of documenting the “lean” of each of the country’s 435 congressional districts—from R+33 in AL-04 to D+40 in PA-03, and all the districts in between.
Nancy Pelosi, Kevin McCarthy Enter CA Gerrymandering War
California Governor Gavin Newsom is betting everything on his biblical, eye-for-an-eye campaign to offset Texas’s proposed congressional redistricting with an equally gerrymandered map of his own—his presidential ambitions, the potential future of the party, and a whole lot of money. The statewide ballot initiative is expected to cost at least $200 million, according to multiple political operatives.
G.O.P. Town Halls Heat Up Over Jeffrey Epstein Files
“Epstein is alive and well. Pardon the pun,” a Republican consultant who works on House races told me recently—refuting, in part, Speaker Mike Johnson’s facile strategy late last month of grinding House business to a halt so that his conference could get the hell out of Dodge and avoid questions about Trump’s connection to the infamous sex trafficker. At first blush, after all, the indications from the field are less than ideal for Republicans.
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