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Articles by Tim Rühlig
Tim Rühlig quoted in the Associated Press ahead of EU Trade Commissioner's visit to Beijing
Europe cannot disengage completely with China as it did from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, but there is robust momentum to rethink its trade relationship with Beijing, explained Tim Rühlig to the Associated Press. He underscored that simply protecting oneself from China is not the future.
Empowering Ukraine: Spend smarter, support harder
Europe should step up its support for Ukraine. Its resources are limited. Fortunately, it can still seize unexplored opportunities, fix systemic flaws, and find ways around seemingly intractable obstacles.This is the time to increase the pressure on Russia, and to strengthen Ukraine’s capacity to secure a favourable peace agreement and manage the aftermath. Read the interactive introduction → Explore the chapters The contributions to this collection look beyond the immediate challenges of the war.
EU-ISS sets out ten ways Europe can strengthen Ukraine with smarter support
Brussels, 20 July 2026 Edited by: Ondrej Ditrych With contributions from: Ondrej Ditrych, Caspar Hobhouse, Nad’a Kovalčíková, Rossella Marangio, Tim Rühlig, Luigi Scazzieri, Giuseppe Spatafora, Bojana Zorić Europe should step up its support for Ukraine. Its resources are limited.
Smart fences
Calibrating China’s role in Ukraine’s reconstruction Metadata Reading time: 5 minutes Ukraine’s reconstruction bill is now estimated at €500 billion over the next decade. This amounts to nearly three times the country’s projected nominal GDP for 2025. The EU alone cannot cover it, and substantial G7 support remains uncertain. This financing gap creates an opening for China.
Empowering Ukraine
Europe should step up its support for Ukraine. Its resources are limited. Fortunately, it can still seize unexplored opportunities, fix systemic flaws, and find ways around seemingly intractable obstacles.This is the time to increase the pressure on Russia, and to strengthen Ukraine’s capacity to secure a favourable peace agreement and manage the aftermath. Read the interactive introduction → Explore the chapters The contributions to this collection look beyond the immediate challenges of the war.
Europe Still Has Leverage Over China
Brussels should use the leverage before it slips away. Credit: Depositphotos Subscribe for ads-free reading Europe’s China debate has long been shaped by the assumption that China’s power would continue to grow almost automatically and that this rise would lead to liberalization. When this did not happen, Europe thought it could get away with adapting and managing risks. That’s no longer the case. China is without question a heavyweight.
Europe does not need new trade weapons – it needs to pull the trigger
Every month, Germany alone loses some 10,000 industrial jobs – roughly the equivalent of the workforce of a mid-sized factory town disappearing from the economy every four weeks. Deindustrialisation is no longer a forecast: it is an unfolding reality. Much of the damage is self-inflicted – high energy costs, inadequate infrastructure and overregulation have steadily eroded competitiveness, and reversing this trend will take years.
Xi and Trump are heading for tactical stabilisation, not a reset
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, international affairs have become less predictable. Yet the Xi-Trump summit in Beijing on 14–15 May 2026 is unlikely to deliver any dramatic strategic surprises. Beijing can orchestrate the visit to provide Trump with the optics of success, and Trump may describe the exchanges in characteristic superlatives. In substance, however, the summit is more likely to focus on managing tensions than on producing a reset in relations.
The weak point: Why pharmaceutical security belongs at the heart of European defence
Every day we see examples of China and the United States using trade dependencies to advance political and economic interests. So far, public debate has focused mainly on raw materials and critical technologies such as rare earths and semiconductors. But another area is just as vital: pharmaceutical ingredients. In spring 2025, 11 EU health ministers warned in an open letter that Europe’s dependence on Chinese medicines was the weak point in Europe’s defence.
Trump II vs. Digital Governance: A Crusade in the United States and Europe
body Both the White House and Big Tech are enlisting European companies in this effort. The Trump administration is also leveraging its ties with Europe’s far-right movements, with the stated aim of “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations” on issues related to digital regulation and far beyond.
China - A fragile power? How Europe can use its economic leverage over Beijing
China looks strong. Its factories dominate global supply chains, its firms set technological standards and its leaders speak the language of great power rivalry. Yet beneath this display of power lies a growing fragility. This Chaillot Paper argues that China’s foreign policy is now shaped as much by domestic economic weakness as by external ambition.
Europe at the Crossroads of DefTech: Rethinking the European Defense Innovation Ecosystem
body As operations increasingly rely on data and artificial intelligence (AI) and weapons systems become “software-defined,” the advantage no longer lies solely in the design of platforms—fighter jets, tanks, submarines—but also in the mastery of information architecture—collection, fusion, computation (cloud/edge), interoperability—and in the ability to innovate very rapidly. War, in the age of AI, is therefore not solely the domain of states.
The dependence gap in Russia-China relations
Skip to main content Metadata Bottom China does not want to see Russia being defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine. This is what Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas when he visited Brussels in early July. Since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Beijing has provided economic, military and diplomatic support to the Kremlin, although to different degrees.
The dependence gap in Russia-China relations
China does not want to see Russia being defeated on the battlefield in Ukraine. This is what Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas when he visited Brussels in early July. Since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Beijing has provided economic, military and diplomatic support to the Kremlin, although to different degrees. China and Russia share deep ideological and geopolitical interests that bind them together.
A Franco-German “Reset”? The Ambitions of the Franco-German Council of Ministers. Challenges of Joint Leadership in Europe
Accroche centre The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions.
Challenging US dominance: China's DeepSeek model and the pluralisation of AI development
The release of a new AI model by the Chinese startup DeepSeek in January 2025, known as R1, captured global attention. The company claimed to have developed a model that performs on par with those of leading American tech firms such as OpenAI, xAI or Anthropic, but at significantly lower cost and requiring far less computing power. This announcement sent shockwaves across the globe, signalling a potential reshaping of the global AI race between the US and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Same summit, different stakes?
Metadata Reading time: 6 minutes When EU leaders travel to Beijing this Thursday for the EU-China Summit, everything might seem to be business as usual at first glance. Since 2019, both sides have failed to agree on a joint declaration, with each summit overshadowed by clashing interests and diverging views.
The “Huawei Saga” in Europe Revisited: German Lessons for the Rollout of 6G
Accroche centre The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions.
Resilience by design: A new EU Foreign Economic Policy to counter global disorder
The pledge to develop a new foreign economic policy sits at the heart of the European Commission’s Political Guidelines published in July 2024 (1). This ambition has become even more pressing in light of US President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policy, signalling a disruptive shift in global economic relations. The new Trump administration’s stated aim is to bring back manufacturing jobs, rebuild the US industrial base, and onshore a broad range of critical value chains.
A transatlantic trade and tech agenda based on common EU and US concerns about China - EU-ISS
Brussels, 20 January 2025 Edited By: Tim Rühlig, Joris Teer In both Washington and European capitals, strengthening economic security and technological resilience has become a core objective. But the EU and the US disagree on the how. The EU’s proposal to develop economic security standards with like-minded partners offers the most promising starting point for achieving shared goals. Trump’s wishlist Democrats and Republicans agree on little these days.
Trade, Tech and Taiwan: Crafting a transatlantic China agenda
The incoming Trump team is convinced that the EU’s China policy is too slow and indecisive. But the EU has a chance to exert influence if it moves swiftly to make a ‘China pitch’ focused on ‘three Ts’: trade, tech and Taiwan. The contours of the new US China policy … President-elect Donald Trump wants to break with Biden-era policies in most fields, but not necessarily on China. His aides proudly claim that President Biden’s approach is a continuation of Trump’s first-term hawkish policy.
Reverse Dependency:
Please note: Below you will find an executive summary and the introduction contained in the report by Digital Power China (DPC), a research consortium convened by DGAP Research Fellow Dr. Tim Rühlig. The complete report can be downloaded as a PDF here. Executive Summary DPC 2024 This report uses 12 case studies to analyse reverse dependencies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the European Union and the United Kingdom.
China’s technological power - implications and risks
Technological competition is a central field of us-China power rivalry. Semi-protectionism, technical learning, targeted knowledge acquisition, party-state guidance without control and competition have made China an innovation powerhouse. This has increased China’s influence on standardization. As a result, China’s economic, political, security and ideational power has grown with risks for supply chain resilience, national security, liberal values and technological competitiveness.
Implicaciones y riesgos del poder tecnológico de China
La competencia tecnológica es un campo central de la rivalidad de poder entre Estados Unidos y China. El semiproteccionismo, el aprendizaje técnico, la adquisición selectiva de conocimientos, la orientación sin control del Estado y la competencia han convertido a China en una potencia innovadora. Esto ha aumentado su influencia en la normalización.
The Sources of China’s Innovativeness
Key Findings China’s formula for success comprises “Five Virtues”: (a) a skillful modulation of protectionism in a large market; (b) attracting knowledge into the country; (c) liaison with Western actors; (d) party-state guidance instead of control; and (e) domestic competition with Chinese characteristics. All these virtues are being challenged by domestic policies and deteriorating international conditions. China will remain innovative but the extent of its success is not foretold.
Skeptical and Concerned - How Germans View China
Key Findings 60% of Germans polled are willing to accept higher consumer prices to reduce economic dependencies on China, and only 31% approve of Chinese technology in Germany’s 5G infrastructure. 48% of respondents want to prioritize human rights over economic benefits, while only 15% disagree. Only 25% do not hold German companies accountable for the human rights violations of their suppliers.
Skeptical and Concerned - How Germans View China
Key Findings 60% of Germans polled are willing to accept higher consumer prices to reduce economic dependencies on China, and only 31% approve of Chinese technology in Germany’s 5G infrastructure. 48% of respondents want to prioritize human rights over economic benefits, while only 15% disagree. Only 25% do not hold German companies accountable for the human rights violations of their suppliers.
China’s Complex Relations with Russia: Tracing the Limits of a “Limitless Friendship”
“President Vladimir Putin is my closest foreign colleague and my best bosom friend, and I treasure this deep friendship with him.” Thus spoke Chinese President Xi Jinping, on a state visit to Moscow in June 2019, to describe his relationship with his Russian counterpart. US-China relations were then already at an historic low; Washington and Beijing were in the middle of a trade war. An alignment of Russia and China seemed reasonable.
ThinkChina - Big reads, Opinion & Columns on China
Politics Germany’s newly unveiled “Strategy on China” echoed much of EU language in highlighting risks concerning competitiveness, supply chain resilience, national security and values in its recalibrated approach to China. While a de-risking strategy carries difficult trade-offs, there seems to be a broad consensus on the goals Germany wants to achieve.
Evaluating Public Support for Chinese Vendors in Europe’s 5G Infrastructure
Approval for cooperation with Chinese vendors ranges from 19.4 percent in Sweden to 51.2 percent in Spain. In the middle are Czechia (20.6 percent), the United Kingdom (20.8 percent), France (24.9 percent), Slovakia (31.8 percent), Poland (32.1 percent), Hungary (36.5 percent), Italy (36.6 percent), and Latvia (44.8 percent). Germans (70.4 percent) and Europeans (66.3 percent) support inner-European 5G cooperation. 50 percent or less approve tie-ups with Japan, the United States and South Korea.
The Geopolitics of Technical Standardization
In a new standardization strategy published on May 4, the United States identifies challenges to longstanding US leadership in technical standardization and to the core principles of international standard-setting. It pins the responsibility for these challenges on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and accuses it of politicizing technical standards.
The new geopolitics of technical standardisation: aA European perspective
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Why Germany’s New China Strategy Needs to Go Beyond Symbolism
There is no doubt about it: Germany’s China is undergoing a transition. Even former Chancellor Angela Merkel, shortly before leaving office, admitted that her government had been “a bit naïve” on China. While the outgoing chancellor indicated even she saw a need for change, the new government, consisting of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP) signaled a radical shift in its coalition agreement before taking office in December 2021.
Zwölf-Punkte-Papier: Was steht in dem chinesischen Plan?
China hat seine Vorschläge für ein Ende des Krieges in der Ukraine veröffentlicht. Was steht drin in dem Zwölf-Punkte-Plan und was will Peking damit bezwecken? Die chinesische Initiative, um den Ukraine-Krieg zu beenden, stößt international auf unterschiedliche Reaktionen. Einige Beobachter sehen Potenzial für eine Verhandlungslösung in dem Zwölf-Punkte-Plan, andere lesen darin eher Versuch Pekings Absicht, sein Image aufzupolieren.
Europe’s Strategic Technology Autonomy From China
Please note: Below you will find an executive summary and the introduction contained in the report by Digital Power China (DPC), a research consortium convened by DGAP Research Fellow Dr. Tim Rühlig. The complete report can be downloaded as a PDF here. Executive Summary: Getting China’s digital technology policy right: implications for the EU For decades, Europeans have considered the People’s Republic of China (PRC) incapable of ground-breaking innovation.
Warum deutsche Firmen nach Singapur wollen
"Hier in Asien spielt die Zukunft": Wieso Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz und die Top-Riege der deutschen Wirtschaft zu einer Konferenz nach Singapur reisen. Rolf Knörzer sitzt in seinem Singapurer Büro und schwärmt. Von staatlichen Förderprogrammen, von Investitionsbereitschaft, von schlanker Bürokratie: "Sie ist da, um zu helfen, nicht um zu bremsen." Der CEO des deutschen Start-ups Industry Apps wähnt sich am richtigen Platz. "Hier in Asien spielt die Musik", sagt er.
Junge DGAP Fellowship - Call for Applications 2022
With new ideas and a breath of fresh air, we want to start a new round of the Fellowships program! At a glance Duration: 6 months, from October 1, 2022, to March 31, 2023 Number of Fellows: up to 4 Location: Berlin and online Language: German and English Application deadline: August 15, 2022 Payment and scope of work: 450€/month; 8 hrs./week Young DGAP Founded in 2008, the Young DGAP offers programs tailored to young foreign policy professionals with innovative event formats.
The China Factor in Russia’s War
Please note: Below you will find the introduction to DGAP Analysis No. 3. To read the entire text, including footnotes and citations, download the full PDF here. Key Points: Although neither the outbreak of the war nor its prolongation is in China’s interest, a defeat for Russia is a horror scenario that Chinese leadership wants to avoid. China currently standing with Putin does not mean that its support is absolute.
A Sovereign Europe ... and China
The new German government has identified strengthening “Europe’s strategic sovereignty” as a central foreign policy goal. The fact that the terms “digital sovereignty,” “technological sovereignty,” and “data sovereignty” are also found in the coalition agreement makes it clear that the focus of this quest for “sovereignty” is not primarily about classic military defense, but about future strategic technologies—and thus about dependence on China.
A New Foreign Policy for Germany?
A New Foreign Policy Outlook Germany’s new ruling coalition has laid out an ambitious agenda that offers a strikingly progressive domestic policy and the promise of newly assertive foreign policy. The two will need to work in tandem for Germany to be seen as a global leader. Gone are the opportunist and mercantilist leanings of the Merkel government on China.
China’s Deteriorating Image
For 20 years or so, academics, journalists, and politicians have discussed China’s rise, but until very recently, the country’s trajectory has not been a major subject of the general public’s discussion in Germany.
Exposing the fragility of EU–China relations | East Asia Forum
23 May 2020 Author: Tim Rühlig, Swedish Institute of International Affairs 2020 was supposed to be an important year for EU–China relations as the European Union’s China policy is undergoing a deep transformation. Four summits had been planned this year. The first two were cancelled and a mid-September leaders’ meeting in Leipzig risks suffering the same fate.
European Think-tank Network on China
The European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) is a gathering of China experts from a selection of European think tanks and research institutes that is devoted to the study of Chinese foreign policy and EU-China relations. The network serves to facilitate regular exchanges among participating researchers for the purpose of deepening the understanding of how Europe, as a complex set of actors, relates with China and how developments in China will impact the future of Europe.
Europe’s Divided Approach to China and Human Rights
Image Credit: Illustration by Catherine Putz EU countries adopt widely divergent stances on human rights issues in their dealings with China. By Björn Jerdén and Tim Rühlig for The Diplomat March 25, 2019 The European Union (EU) recently labeled China “a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance.” Friction over political models increasingly shapes the relationships between Europe and China. The EU was founded on the principles of human rights, democracy and the rule of law.
The EU’s New China Resolution: Principled But Not Strategic
The European Union’s China policy is in flux. A new resolution adopted by the European Parliament is more critical and principled that the previous one adopted only three years ago in 2015. This step should be welcomed, but its needs to be complemented by a strategic vision on how to promote liberal values at a time when Europe needs to closely cooperate with China.
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