Chief Market Strategist at @earningsbeats and StockCharts.com contributor.
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Articles by Tom Bowley
Another Record High, But Consumer Strength is Lacking
2026 has been odd in that new all-time highs in the S&P 500 ($SPX) have been accompanied by a lackluster Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector. Most of the current secular bull market has been fully supported by a strong consumer, but we're seeing more cracks in the consumer foundation, as you can glean from this chart. Relative Strength of S&P 500 to Consumer Discretionary Moving Lower. Chart source: StockCharts.com.
Think This Is a Market Top? Look Again
Is the S&P 500 forming a market top? Tom compares today’s breakout with the setup entering 2022 to show what a real shift toward defense looked like before a cyclical bear market. The contrast matters now: current leadership still points toward risk-on behavior. From there, he follows that strength into the groups attracting momentum as earnings season and key inflation reports approach. This video originally premiered on October 7, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session?
The 5% Treasury Yield: It's Here and How It'll Affect Stocks
Key Takeaways The 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, putting pressure on interest-rate-sensitive areas of the stock market. Higher yields are driving rotation, with money shifting away from the most rate-sensitive sectors. Watch price action, intermarket relationships, and sector rotation for stronger warning signs. All summer I kept pondering the likelihood that we'd see the 10-year Treasury yield ($TNX) above 5% and, if it happened, what the impact might be.
The Market Isn't Breaking. It's Rotating!
Treasury yields are climbing, and the stock market remains bullish. In this video, Tom Bowley explains how sector rotation is helping keep the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 resilient even as the 10-Year Treasury yield moves higher. Tom follows where money is flowing, which areas are weakening, and why Consumer Discretionary continues to struggle. Beneath the surface, the divide is becoming harder to ignore.
No Matter How Bad Things Appear, the S&P 500 Isn't Going Down. Here's Why
I see so many headlines calling for bearish stock market action, but it simply isn't going to happen, at least not based on current market rotation. Do you believe that market tops are totally random? I absolutely don't. I believe that the big Wall Street firms know exactly when market tops are in, and they plan for it. If you don't believe me, then follow along as I check out the sector rotation at the last three major market tops. January 28, 2026.
Five Groups are Standing Out, and One is Leading Them All
Five of the strongest industry groups are separating from the pack as rates rise and the S&P 500 holds above key support. Tom Bowley ranks the areas showing the strongest relative strength and reveals which group stands above the rest. Strength is becoming more selective beneath the surface. Tom analyzes the pressure showing up in rate-sensitive areas, then turns to the groups that continue to strengthen despite that backdrop.
Will The Hawkish Fed Cause a Major Market Top?
Consider the question in the title. It's easy to think that this is the case, but I'd be very careful about making that assumption. While the Fed did just announce a unanimous decision to raise the fed funds target range by a quarter point, history tends to side with the bulls when the Fed begins a rate-hiking campaign. In the near-term, however, we might have to deal with a bit of weakness as we navigate September and October.
Setting Up The Perfect Trade
It's absolutely possible to set up perfect trades. But what we must all understand is that the perfect trade setup doesn't always result in a profit. Nothing is guaranteed, and we have no way of knowing how setups will eventually play out. So What Is the Perfect Trade Setup? For me, it's a trade with a high probability of success with minimal risk. The best and most successful traders are those who manage risk well.
Don’t Use Stock Market Seasonality Without Checking This
Stock market seasonality can look convincing at first glance, but the averages don’t always tell the full story. The real value of seasonality comes from understanding what sits behind the headline numbers. Using real stock examples, Tom shows how he weighs seasonal history against price action, technical strength, and year-to-year consistency, including how one unusually strong year can distort the bigger picture.
Using Seasonality to Enhance Your Trading Results
We see history repeat itself over and over again in the U.S. stock market, so it's a good idea to have a grasp on market history. Many stocks do have specific tendencies (not guarantees) during various times throughout the calendar year, so knowing when a stock has seasonal tailwinds can absolutely add to your trading success. I have an Excel spreadsheet where I track over 1500 companies (the S&P 1500 plus stocks in the NASDAQ 100 that are not also in the S&P 500).
The Market Is Flat. So Where Is the Money Going?
Stock market sector rotation is picking up beneath a flat S&P 500. The indexes may be going nowhere but, underneath the surface, several groups are reaching important turning points. Tom scans healthcare, banks, consumer groups, industrials, energy, and software for breakouts, support tests, and emerging strength, while also watching S&P 500 support and Treasury yields as September approaches. He finishes with the after-hours earnings reactions that could put software back in the spotlight.
Rotation YOU Need To Be Following
There's always a bull market somewhere. Where? Well, it depends on your timeframe. I can tell you that right now it's not semiconductors. That could change, as this is a group that typically leads secular bull market advances. As we head into the historically weak month of September, here's a quick look at the 12 best-performing industry groups over the past month. 12 Best-Performing Industry Groups Over the Past Month. Gold is on fire again.
This Could Be the Market's Biggest Risk in September
September is historically a difficult month for stocks, and Tom Bowley sees a developing market risk worth watching. What could turn this into a September problem? Tom examines the changing Treasury market, the potential implications for interest rates, and some unusual weakness developing in banks and regional banks. He also reviews healthcare and energy leadership, options expiration, and notable moves in Tesla and Bitcoin. This video originally premiered on August 20, 2026.
What Should YOU Do With All-Time Highs Heading Into September?
Key Takeaways Seasonal risk is rising, but the technical picture remains bullish. Momentum is strengthening across monthly, weekly, and daily time frames. Stay alert for a Q3/Q4 pullback, but current evidence still favors higher prices. The title of this article is a really good question to ask yourself. Why? Because September is the only calendar month that has resulted in more down months for the S&P 500 ($SPX) than up months since 1950. Here's an interesting stat.
The Market Is Breaking Out. What Could Go Wrong?
The stock market is breaking out, with technology and semiconductor stocks gaining momentum. What has Tom concerned despite the bullish price action? He examines market sentiment, interest rates, and seasonal risk before turning to raised-guidance stocks and showing why waiting for better entries can make a significant difference when managing risk. This video originally premiered on August 13, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session?
The Bull Market Looks Healthy. Here's Why
The bull market is showing renewed strength. But what made this rebound different from an ordinary bounce? Tom examines the technical evidence supporting the current uptrend, reviews key support levels, explains why aggressive sectors are leading again, and shares the stocks and seasonal opportunities he’s watching after another busy week of earnings. This video originally premiered on August 6, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session?
The Smart Money Has Moved. Have You?
Money is rotating, but where is it going? Tom examines the areas holding up best as former leaders lose momentum. He also reviews key support levels, seasonal trends, recent and upcoming Magnificent Seven earnings, and the market signals that deserve the closest attention in the weeks ahead. This video originally premiered on July 30, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.
Two Blowout Earnings Reports and What to Look For to Predict One
We've now seen the first two Mag 7 earnings reports from the Q2 earnings season, and Wall Street didn't like them. Alphabet (GOOGL) actually beat consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines, but it didn't seem to matter. GOOGL Earnings: Was It Baked Into the Price? Chart source: StockCharts.com.
Is Chasing This Market a Mistake?
The market has entered a period of consolidation, which is when many investors make costly mistakes. Rather than viewing the recent market weakness as a reason to panic, Tom explains why consolidation is a normal part of a healthy uptrend and why money is rotating away from growth leadership. He discusses the seasonal backdrop, what the recent action in semiconductors and technology may be signaling, and how he’s approaching opportunities during this environment.
The Market Doesn't Need Semiconductors Anymore
As semiconductors consolidate after a historic run, other areas of the market are stepping in to keep the rally alive. Tom examines why financials, healthcare, regional banks, and the Magnificent Seven are showing renewed strength, what that says about market breadth, and why he believes the current consolidation remains constructive. This video originally premiered on July 1, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.
Is This an AI Bubble?
I've been putting a lot of thought into this question, and for good reason. Profits have exploded among many of the semiconductor names as memory chip demand has SOARED! Micron Technology (MU) was the latest company in this space to absolutely blow away both quarterly revenue and earnings estimates and then significantly raise guidance. Euphoric tops and bubbles are synonymous, however, so it begs the question: "Is this an AI bubble?" Opinions vary, and I try to stay very objective in my analysis.
The Market Isn't Buying the Headlines
Instead of confirming the market's fears, investors may be positioning for a very different outcome, as suggested by falling Treasury yields, strength in homebuilders and regional banks, and continued capital rotation. Tom breaks down the signals he's watching, what Micron's earnings could mean for semiconductor leadership, and why following the charts may be more valuable than following the news. This video originally premiered on June 28, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here.
This Market Rally Faces a Big Test
Negative divergences are beginning to appear in several key areas of the market just as options expiration and Fed uncertainty add new pressure. Tom reviews the key support levels he's watching, explains why semiconductors remain a critical group to monitor, and discusses whether the market is entering a period of summer consolidation after its recent advance. This video originally premiered on June 18, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session?
High-Momentum Growth Stocks Come Roaring Back Again
Key Takeaways Chasing bottoms in lagging stocks can be a fruitless move; what can be more beneficial is watching for pullbacks within top industries and taking the opportunity. While growth stocks struggled early in the week, they made some astounding gains by Friday. VELO and ATEX, the top names of EarningsBeats' momentum chartlists this week, show the potential of watching for weakness in leading groups. At EarningsBeats.com, we are all about momentum and relative strength.
Everything Just Changed In This Market — Now What?
Negative divergences across the major indexes warned that momentum was weakening long before this week’s selloff. Tom reviews the key support levels he’s watching, explains why the recent semiconductor decline may be a normal reset after a historic advance, and highlights the defensive industry groups now attracting money as market leadership shifts. This video originally premiered on June 11, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session?
The Market Still Looks Bullish — But Something Changed
The market continues making new highs and most of Tom's sustainability ratios remain firmly bullish. However, recent weakness in growth leadership, software stocks, and post-earnings reactions from major names like Broadcom and CrowdStrike suggest a subtle shift may be underway. Tom Bowley explains what's changed, what he’s watching, and why he’s still not turning bearish. This video originally premiered on June 4, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session?
These Warning Signs Keep Growing — But Tom Isn’t Bearish
The market continues pushing to new highs even as negative divergences begin appearing across the S&P 500, XLK, and the semiconductor ETF (SOXX). Tom explains why those warning signs have his attention—but aren’t enough to turn him bearish. He also breaks down why improving growth vs. value ratios, stronger risk-on signals, and continued leadership from aggressive areas of the market still support the broader bull market. This video originally premiered on May 29, 2026.
Our Super Bowley Fantasy DRAFTs Are Proving One Thing
Over the past two quarters, my great friends and StockCharts.com colleagues Grayson Roze, Julius de Kempenaer, and David Keller have joined me at EarningsBeats.com in our first two Super Bowley Fantasy Stock Draft Challenges. The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Team has also participated in both drafts, choosing the highest-ranked stock in SCTR score order at the time of its selection. The purpose of these drafts is twofold: first, for education, and second, for bragging rights.
The Market Just Pulled Back — Here’s Why
After a powerful multi-week rally, the market finally saw a sharp pullback during options expiration week. Tom explains why the reversal may have been more mechanical than fundamental, highlighting how “Max Pain” conditions and sentiment extremes often create short-term market swings. He also breaks down the semiconductor pullback, transport rebound, crude oil volatility, and the key support levels and relative strength signals he’s watching now. This video originally premiered on May 21, 2026.
There's One Common Ingredient In Every Successful Portfolio
Key Takeaways The more successful portfolios have stocks that show excellent relative strength. Over the last three months, Technology is the only S&P 500 sector that has outperformed the benchmark index. Out of 100 industry groups, only 15 have outperformed the S&P 500 in the past three months. Putting together a somewhat diversified portfolio to beat the benchmark S&P 500 is not an easy task. Doing it over an extended period, like years, is nearly impossible.
Even With Bad News, Semiconductors Go Higher!
Semiconductors continued leading the market higher, even after hotter-than-expected inflation reports pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since mid-2025. Tom highlights how growth stocks, especially semis, continue attracting aggressive money flow while much of the market lags behind. He also highlights Nvidia’s powerful earnings-month history, talks leading industry groups, and explains why relative strength remains one of the most important signals in this market.
What You Need to Know About Current Market Rotation
It's probably obvious to just about everyone right now that we're in an uptrend. Our major indices are seemingly setting new record highs daily. But it's more important to follow WHAT is leading the market higher to get a better sense of the sustainability of the rally. Will it last? With the correction over, if we look at the S&P 500 ($SPX), we see there are two clear support levels to watch during any bout of selling. S&P 500: Clear Support Levels to Watch. Chart source: StockCharts.com.
Here’s the Next Move After Semiconductors
Semiconductors have been driving this rally, but they’re getting stretched. Tom explains where investors should be looking next, highlighting emerging strength in areas like internet, steel, and retail, and breaking down how to identify the next leaders as money continues rotating across the market. This video originally premiered on May 6, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here. Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.
Breakouts Like These Can Lead To Exhilarating Gains
The stock market sends us signals all the time, but most traders/investors misinterpret them. For instance, the massive rally in April has several investors thinking much more positively about their stocks, trading strategy, and trading style. A rising stock market will make everyone believe that they are the next Warren Buffett. The truth of the matter, though, is that you'd better pay attention to relative strength.
The Market Hit New Highs — But This Is the Real Signal!
The S&P 500 just reached new highs, but Tom explains why the real signal is happening beneath the surface. With money rotating back into growth stocks and aggressive sectors leading, this rally looks very different from earlier failed attempts. Tom breaks down why this shift in leadership suggests the market bottom is likely in, while also outlining what to watch as the next phase of the move unfolds. This video originally premiered on April 15, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here.
Big Rally After Headlines — But What Happens Next?
Markets surged after major geopolitical headlines sparked a sharp rally, pushing indexes back above key moving averages; Tom explains why this move looks strong on the surface, but may not signal a sustained uptrend. He breaks down sector rotation, falling interest rates, and why ongoing uncertainty could lead to more choppy, sideways action before the market makes its next meaningful move. This video originally premiered on April 8, 2026. Watch it on Tom's StockCharts TV page here.
A Key Signal That Suggests a Choppy Market Ahead
Sentiment is the most overlooked piece of stock market prognostication, with the possible exception of perspective. When sentiment turns too bullish, upside is limited. When it turns too pessimistic, go all in. If you adhere to that one simple strategy and follow the Cboe Options Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE), you'll likely change your stock market investing success for the better. Below is a chart that I include in my Weekly Market Report with EarningsBeats.com members every week.
This Market Keeps Failing — Is Another Drop Coming?
After a sharp oversold rebound, markets pushed back to key resistance levels but failed to break through, despite repeated tests of the 20-day moving average. Tom explains why these failures matter and what they signal about the current trend. He also highlights sector rotation, relative strength in transports and energy, and why sentiment conditions suggest more choppy, frustrating action ahead, with the potential for another move lower. This video originally premiered on April 2, 2026.
S&P 500 Needs One Key Ingredient for Bottom
It was another difficult week for U.S. stocks as a 10% correction was reached on several major indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU), Nasdaq 100 ($NDX), Russell 2000, and more. One key index whose losses have fallen short of that 10% correction threshold is the S&P 500 ($SPX), though it's not by far. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) surged 16% last week to close at 31.05, the first close above 30 since the cyclical bear market ended in April 2025.
Selling Will Likely Escalate If S&P 500 Loses This Support Level
At MarketVision 2026, I discussed the increasing likelihood of a stock market correction to begin in 2026. Looking at the major indices at the time, it may not have seemed obvious. After all, the S&P 500 ended 2025 at 6845.50 after reaching an all-time high at 6945 just five days earlier. But a recent Yahoo! Finance survey showed that every analyst was pointing to a higher S&P 500 in 2026, which, by itself, should have scared every investor.
Fed Uncertainty Sparks Selloff — This Level Matters Now
Markets sold off following hotter-than-expected inflation data and a Fed message filled with uncertainty, triggering heavy late-day selling in both stocks and bonds. Tom Bowley highlights weakening breadth, sector deterioration, and rising volatility beneath the surface, and also breaks down the key S&P 500 levels now in focus, with 6800 as resistance and 6538 as critical support that could determine the market’s next move. This video originally premiered on March 19, 2026.
Not Even Rising Fear Can Crack This Market
Markets are facing a surge in negative headlines, rising volatility, and renewed uncertainty, yet the underlying signals tell a different story. Tom breaks down why accumulation lines across major indexes continue to rise despite the fear, what the spike in volatility means for investors, and how rotation back into growth stocks could shape the market’s next move.
Headlines Hit the Market But Buyers Keep Stepping In
It's been a headline-filled week on Wall Street. Geopolitical tensions flared up, crude oil prices surged, and the major indexes took a hit. But something interesting has been happening. In this video, Tom Bowley explains why the weakness at the open has been met with steady buying throughout the day and what the underlying support could mean for the stock market's next move.
Nervous Investors Should Look Here in March
During a secular bull market, it's generally best to be overweight in aggressive sectors like Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). There are exceptions to this rule, however, and the third month of calendar quarters (March, June, September, and December) is one such exception. This is the month that sees the end of one earnings season and the start of another.
Tariff Ruling Sparks Rotation - Here’s Where Money Is Moving
Tom reviews a week marked by renewed uncertainty after a Supreme Court tariff ruling, as the S&P 500 tested support before rebounding and remaining range-bound between 6797 and 7000. He explains how falling Treasury yields are fueling strength in utilities ahead of a historically strong March, all while energy, materials, and industrials continue trending higher.
S&P 500 Trapped Between 6797 and 7000 - Which Breaks First?
Tom recaps a volatile week, with the S&P 500 remaining range-bound between 6797 support and 7000 resistance. He reviews the major index and sector charts, where he highlights rising volatility, bearish momentum in several aggressive groups, and continued strength in energy, materials, and industrials.
This Sector Is Making Its First Relative Breakout in 8 Years
From 1999 through 2018, one sector consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over time, which was none other than the Industrials (XLI). Since 2018, however, Industrials struggled to make another relative breakout vs. the S&P 500 until 2026. Here's a chart that will provide a quick visual of Industrials' relative performance since the turn of the century. Relative Strength of XLI (1999-2026). Chart source: StockCharts.com. The strength in Industrials is across the board.
Semiconductors vs. Software: The Battle Driving This Market
Tom Bowley recaps a week where major indices held support but remained stuck in consolidation. Although the Dow and small caps show relative strength, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still battling resistance. The key story is inside technology, where semiconductor stocks are pressing toward breakouts as software names remain under pressure.
Dow Theory Confirmed: Technology Holds Critical Support
There was no doubt in my mind that we were on the brink of a sell-off of major proportions at the close on Thursday. Right afterwards, Amazon.com (AMZN) reported its quarterly results and the stock immediately slumped 10% in after-hours. QQQ, the ETF that tracks the large-cap, technology-driven NASDAQ 100, fell 1% in after-hours, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) fell a similar percentage. The bulls had their backs against the wall.
As Fear Rises, Cracks Are Forming Beneath the Market!
Tom recaps a volatile week as the Nasdaq 100 broke key support levels and the S&P 500 began testing critical price zones. He explains why persistent bearish rotation away from growth and into defensive areas remains a concern, how rising volatility with the VIX moving above 20 adds risk, and why weakness in technology and semiconductors is dragging broader markets lower.
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