Tom Waters
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Articles by Tom Waters
Why Has in‐Work Poverty Risen in Britain?
1 Introduction In policy discussions throughout the developed world, poverty is closely associated with unemployment. Indeed, the landmark Beveridge Report published by the UK government in 1942 listed ‘idleness’ as one of the five ‘giant evils’ British society faced [1]. More generally, paid work is frequently represented as the surest way out of poverty.
Tom Waters open letter ‘does Pahrump really need a town board?’
That’s a question we are all asking. Many Pahrump residents have already made the decision that we, the Pahrump voters, need the voice that only a town board can provide. It “appears” that they realize a Pahrump Town Board is necessary by their eagerness to sign the petitions that are available to all. If you have signed a petition, we thank you.
Tom Waters: Another open letter to the residents of Pahrump
Thanks to everyone who attended the May 23 town hall meeting about re-establishing the Pahrump Town Board. Please understand that this Town Hall meeting was not to minimize the responsibility or importance of the Nye County Board of County Commissioners (BoCC). Personally, I believe that they are doing the very best they can but are overwhelmed by the vast responsibility of caring for the county (their jobs) and the town of Pahrump (OUR job).
Hours of work and the long‐run effects of in‐work transfers
1 INTRODUCTION The growth of ‘in-work’ transfers, such as Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) in the USA and Working Families' Tax Credit (WFTC) in the UK, has been a major development in transfer policy in developed economies in recent decades. These have been viewed as a tool for raising living standards among low-earning households, but also, crucially, for changing incentives.
Welfare reforms will leave ‘gaping chasm’ with 600,000 at risk of losing out
The reforms, dubbed by the Government as shifting the focus on to what people can do rather than what they cannot, involve the scrapping of the work capability assessment (WCA), leaving only the personal independence payment (PIP).
Meeting Challenges in Financing Clean-Energy Projects
This article looks at several strategic paths and tactics to consider in financing a sustainability effort during turbulent times. By Tom Waters If you’re like many other companies today, you’ve made the call to green your business. Perhaps you’ve decided to switch to LED lighting, install a more energy-efficient HVAC system, develop a microgrid to increase your energy independence or make another energy-efficiency move. Now it’s time for financing. How will you pay for the projects?
The long squeeze: rising inflation and the current government support package -
The existing package of support Back in May, the government updated their one-off package of support for households, which now totals £24 billion and comprised five main strands: £400 to all households labelled as an “energy discount” that will be subtracted from energy bills. £150 for all households in council tax bands A-D (around 80% of households). £650 for any family on means-tested benefits. £300 for pensioners on means-tested benefits. £150 for those on a disability benefit.
Conservative candidates’ tax plans are increasingly similar, though still differ in scale and timing. -
Rishi Sunak has pledged that, should he become Prime Minister, the basic rate of income tax would fall to 16% by the end of the decade. That would be a 3 percentage point (ppt) cut on top of the 1ppt cut (from 20% to 19%) already planned for 2024-25. That 1ppt cut will cost about £6bn per year; the additional cut to 16% now proposed by Mr Sunak would cost an additional £19bn per year. This is a very substantial tax cut.
Long COVID and the labour market -
Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Home Publications Long COVID and the labour market As the UK exits the most acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, attention has turned to ‘long COVID’, which is on the rise and becoming no less severe.
Tax and spending policies of Conservative leadership contenders -
We are now down to the final two Conservative Party leadership contenders: Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. On 5 September we will know which of the two is the next Conservative Party leader - and therefore Prime Minister - so their visions for tax and spending matter. Below we provide some initial analysis of the plans that have been set out so far.
Heightened uncertainty and the spectre of inflation hang over the Spring Statement -
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement, due on 23 March, was not supposed to be a major fiscal event. But rapidly rising inflation and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine might force the Chancellor to produce more than just a new set of economic and fiscal forecasts. New IFS analysis, published ahead of the Spring Statement, lays bare the far-reaching economic challenges associated with this shifting outlook.
The cost of living crunch -
Rising inflation affects all our living standards. Together with planned tax increases it means that average take-home pay is likely to fall over the coming year. It also raises specific issues for benefits policy. Those on low incomes will tend to find it hardest to tide themselves over during a period in which their real incomes are eroded, which by default is what happens when inflation increases sharply because the major benefits go up in line with a lagged measure of inflation.
Budget measures bring number of families entitled to Universal Credit to 7 million -
Universal Credit (UC) has been steadily rolled out since 2013, with 4 million families1 now claiming it, but several million still on the older ‘legacy’ benefits that it is replacing. The Budget saw the Chancellor make some tweaks to the system which will (when UC is fully rolled out) increase annual spending by about £3 billion.
Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2021 -
Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Home Publications Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2021 This report examines how household incomes were changing in the UK up to the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic, and how other measures of household living standards have changed over the course of the pandemic.
Material living standards held up surprisingly well through the pandemic on average - but the self-employed, low-income working families, and people from ethnic minority groups suffered increased deprivation - Institute For Fiscal Studies - IFS
In early 2021, unemployment, real earnings growth, arrears on household bills, and food-bank use were all at similar overall levels to pre-pandemic. This is an astonishing outcome given the scale of economic disruption and loss of national income over the last 15 months. It highlights the huge impact of the government’s interventions to support household incomes during the pandemic, including £20 per week uplift in Universal Credit and (especially) the furlough scheme.
A shock to come at the end of furlough? -
Tomorrow, the government will start to wind down the Coronavirus Job Retention (furlough) scheme. The latest data – from the end of April – showed that there were still 3.4 million jobs on furlough, representing around one for every eight employees (Figure 1). Some groups are especially likely to be furloughed: those aged under 25 or over 65, Londoners, women, and workers in the cultural, accommodation, or food sectors.
The expiry of the Universal Credit uplift: impacts and policy options -
Summary New statistics released by the Department for Work and Pensions today give us the latest picture of who is claiming Universal Credit (UC) and how much the temporary uplift matters. By February this year there were 5 million UC claimants – double the number seen pre-pandemic. Almost all of these claimants are benefiting from the temporary £20 per week uplift in UC, due to expire at the end of September. How much that uplift matters to family incomes varies substantially.
One and only: Chesney Hawkes was number 1 the last and only time homes were valued for council tax -
The first of April 1991 seems a world away. Arsenal sat atop the English First Division, Mikhail Gorbachev was President of the Soviet Union and Chesney Hawkes topped the charts with The One and Only. This Observation wouldn’t have been read online on 1st April 1991, as the world wide web only became publicly accessible in August of that year.
The temporary benefit uplift: extension, permanence, or a one-off bonus? -
In the immediate wake of the pandemic, the government announced a temporary increase in Universal Credit (UC) and Working Tax Credit entitlements by £20 per week (£1,040 p.a.), due to last for one year until March 2021 and benefiting around 6 million families per month.
Self-employment income support and the second national lockdown -
On the same day that this observation was published the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions announced that the suspension of the Minimum Income Floor would be extended to the end of April 2021. In the wake of the crisis, the government brought in two policies specifically targeted at shoring up the incomes of the self-employed: the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS), and the suspension of the Minimum Income Floor (MIF) for self-employed claimants of Universal Credit (UC).
Justice-as-a-Service
There’s a new wave of customer empowerment coming. It’s called Justice-as-a-Service (JaaS), and you need to know about it because it benefits you – you just don’t know it yet. We’ve all experienced bad products and services. We’ve just come to accept it. We’ve learned to pick our battles and only invest our precious time in “making things right” when potential justice and retribution is within reach. But in most cases, we don’t do anything. We figure it’s not worth it. What are these injustices?
The temporary benefit increases beyond 2020-21 -
The COVID-19 crisis has led to a profound shock to the labour market, one consequence of which is a rising number of claimants of means-tested benefits and higher entitlements among existing claimants. Under its central scenario, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that these effects will raise benefit spending by £25 billion in 2020–21; even its optimistic scenario puts the figure at £17 billion.
Income protection for the self-employed and employees during the coronavirus crisis -
The government has announced a series of reforms intended to protect workers against income losses resulting from the coronavirus. First, there have been several temporary benefit giveaways. The basic allowances in universal credit (UC) and working tax credit have both been increased by £1,000 per year. Maximum entitlements to housing benefit (and the housing element of UC) for private tenants have been increased to the 30th percentile of rents in a local area.
Support for the self-employed during the coronavirus pandemic -
Later today (26 March 2020) the Chancellor is due to announce measures to help the self-employed. So far, the self-employed have seen some increase in the social safety net via increases in the generosity of universal credit (UC) but no equivalent to the new Job Retention Scheme (JRS) that supports employees. This note sets out the context for today’s announcement.
Coronavirus and the upcoming rise in the National Living Wage -
Last week the Chancellor announced a substantial package of temporary increases to benefits in the light of the Coronavirus outbreak, due to come into force in April. Such increases are well justified in the current climate. The National Living Wage (NLW) is also due to rise at the same time. Given the costs this will impose on employers this increase is now less desirable and there is a case for it being deferred.
A response to the Chancellor’s new package of support -
The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has today announced a substantial package of support that will incentivise employers to keep hold of their employees over the next few months and a significant boost to the incomes of those reliant on Universal Credit. For at least until the end of June the Government will pay 80%, up to £2,500 per month, the wages of those who have been furloughed. In many cases employers will choose to do this – and pay the remaining 20% of wages – rather than lay off the employee.
Reducing in-work poverty: the role of minimum wages and benefits -
Relative in-work poverty has been steadily rising since 1994–95, meaning that the incomes of poorer working households have not been keeping up with those of middle-income households. Alongside falls in worklessness and pensioner poverty, this has resulted in a large shift in the nature of poverty in the UK: it is now primarily a matter of low incomes for households with someone in work.
Labour policy to reform and replace Universal Credit -
It has been announced that Jeremy Corbyn MP, Labour Party Leader, will today outline a Labour policy to introduce “emergency” reforms to Universal Credit with the intention of developing a new social security system to replace it altogether. Robert Joyce (IFS) and Tom Waters (IFS) provide comment and analysis below.
Income tax and benefits: the Liberal Democrats and Labour compared -
The Liberal Democrat manifesto published today includes commitments to increase all rates of income tax by 1 percentage point as well as cancelling a number of significant benefit cuts and reversing others. In this observation we provide an overview of these proposals and compare them to the income tax and benefit proposals published by Labour yesterday.
Jeremy Hunt's tax and spending policies: what would they cost and who would benefit? -
Key findings Jeremy Hunt has announced several policy proposals, including reducing corporation tax, increasing the point at which workers become liable for National Insurance (NICs) contributions, increasing defence spending, and reducing the interest rate applied to student debt. We find that: Cutting the main rate of corporation to 12.5% would cost around £13 billion per year in the short run, though probably somewhat less in the long run.
Boris Johnson's tax policies: what would they cost and who would benefit? -
New IFS analysis of Boris Johnson’s two main tax proposals – to increase the income tax higher rate threshold (HRT) from £50,000 to £80,000, and to raise the point at which people start paying National Insurance contributions (NICs) is published today. It shows: Increasing the HRT costs about £9 billion and benefits the 4 million or so income tax payers with the highest incomes.
Boris Johnson's tax policies: what would they cost and who would benefit? -
Key findings Boris Johnson has announced two main tax proposals – to increase the income tax higher rate threshold (HRT) from £50,000 to £80,000, and to raise the point at which people start paying National Insurance contributions (NICs). We find that: Increasing the HRT costs about £9 billion and benefits the 4 million or so income taxpayers with the highest incomes. Most of the gain goes to those in the top 10% of the income distribution would gain an average of nearly £2,500 a year.
Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2019 -
This report examines how living standards – most commonly measured by households’ incomes – have changed for different groups in the UK, and the consequences that these changes have for income inequality and for measures of deprivation and poverty. In this latest report, we focus in particular on those people who are poorest in society, with two of our three main chapters focusing on poverty.
How has stalling income growth affected different parts of the population? -
Between 2011–12 and 2016–17, median incomes grew at a rate of 1.6% a year – faster than the 1.2% growth rate seen immediately before the recession (2002–03 to 2007–08). However, median household income growth stalled in 2017–18, making it only the fourth year (and second non-recession year) in the last 30 where median income did not grow (Figure 1).
Why has in-work poverty risen in Britain? -
We examine the reason for the increased in-work relative poverty rate in Britain over the last 25 years, which has risen by almost 5 percentage points from 13% to 18%. We identify two reasons that are actually due to positive trends in British society: the catch up of pensioner incomes (driven by higher state and private pensions), and falls in worklessness bringing low earning types of households (such as lone parents) into work.
Living standards and income inequality -
This chapter analyses trends in average incomes and income inequality between UK individuals. We also explore the determinants of trends in income growth and how they have evolved over time, on average and for different groups. We use the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) data, the latest version of which covers the financial year 2017–18, to document these trends in recent years. For the analysis of the labour market, we supplement our HBAI analysis with the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
Another Voice: With many burdened, rent protections are needed here
By Tom Waters and John Washington Buffalo’s so-called resurgence is a thin veil for a housing crisis that is displacing the city’s most vulnerable residents. Over half of Buffalo tenants are spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent, according to a new report from the Community Service Society of New York. That means their housing is not affordable according to national standards.
The effect of taxes and benefits on UK inequality -
Key findings Benefits reduce UK income inequality more than direct taxes do. Before redistribution, the highest-income fifth of individuals, on average, has an income that is 12 times as large as the poorest fifth. Adding all cash benefits and deducting direct taxes (including income and council taxes as well as employer and employee National Insurance contributions) brings this figure down to 5. Benefits account for around 80% of this reduction, while direct taxes account for 20%.
Flooding: Where We Are, Where We’ve Been And Where We Need To Go - The Waterways Journal
By Tom Waters The flood of 2019 has wreaked havoc in Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. From Omaha to Kansas City, more than 100 breaches in levees allowed the Missouri River to spread across some of the nation’s most productive farmland and through Missouri and Iowa communities. In each case, levees performed as designed. However, the volume and velocity of the river exceeded the design of the flood control system. Heavy snow and rain running into the river caused it to rise to record levels.
Future flooding: Fertile farmland's in danger; Congress must act
Tom Waters Last in a series: We must make fixing inadequate flood control infrastructure a national priority, and it starts on Capitol Hill. May 13, 2019 By Tom Waters This spring’s Bomb Cyclone which destroyed so much grain, equipment, property and belongings across the western corn belt was a disaster that could have, to some extent, avoided.
Future flooding: Flood control must be a priority on Missouri River
By Tom Waters The flood of 2019 wreaked havoc in the western corn belt. The Bomb Cyclone which brought heavy snow and rain happened so quickly it did not allow time for thousands of farmers to move grain, equipment, property and belongings out of harms way. As we described inpart one of this series, a river system that was originally designed for navigation and flood control has now been weakened by increasing numbers of experiments related to the Endangered Species Act.
Future flooding: How to manage the next bomb cyclone
Tom Waters The town of Hamburg, Iowa, in the southwest corner of the state. First in a series: The Endangered Species Act weakened flood control safeguards on the Missouri River, resulting in lost property and livelihoods. Can we right the ship? May 09, 2019 By Tom Waters The flood of 2019 wreaked havoc in Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska.
Universal credit and its impact on household incomes: the long and the short of it -
In this research we investigate who wins and loses from universal credit, and by how much. For the first time, we also look at the effects of universal credit on people’s incomes over eight years of their lives, rather than just at a point in time. This lets us look at the impact on those that are persistently, rather than temporarily, low income.
Opinion: Will NY State Take a First Step Toward Ending Homelessness?
The single best thing that New York’s state government could do to improve housing policy is to provide more rent assistance to pay part of the rent for tenants in imminent danger of becoming homeless and shelter residents trying to get into permanent housing. And that could happen in this year’s state budget.
Reform to two-child limit addresses retrospection, but does not change long-run cut to support for big families -
Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Home Publications Reform to two-child limit addresses retrospection, but does not change long-run cut to support for big families Summary Today Amber Rudd, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, announced that the ‘two-child limit’ in tax credits and Universal Credit will not apply to children born before the policy was...
CityViews: Term Limits Aren’t What Will Strengthen the City’s Community Boards
New York City’s 59 community boards are repositories of high hopes, but they leave many people frustrated. People want them to stand for neighborhood self-determination and for grassroots democracy but criticize them either for having too much power to obstruct development or for failing to empower regular people to alter the course of neighborhood change.
Stealthy changes mean that soon one in five families with children will be losing some Child Benefit -
Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Publications Commentary Research People Events News Resources and Videos About IFS Home Publications Stealthy changes mean that soon one in five families with children will be losing some Child Benefit Summary Six years ago today, Child Benefit was first withdrawn from families containing someone whose annual income is above £50,000 a year.
Introduction of National Living Wage followed by strong pay growth for low-paid workers but little change in their average living standards -
The introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April 2016 meant a sharp increase in the minimum wage for employees aged 25+ from £6.70 to £7.20. These are the key findings of a pre-released chapter of IFS’ flagship annual report on living standards, inequality and poverty, funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The full report will be published on 20th June.
City's housing policy is not adding up
New York City’s poorest households—the 670,000 classified as “extremely low-income” because they earn less than about $28,000 for a family of three—bear the brunt of the city’s housing crisis. They are the most likely to face evictions, displacement and homelessness. Over 60% of them pay more than half their income in rent, more than twice the percentage of renters overall. These severe rent burdens greatly increase their likelihood of getting evicted and make life incredibly difficult.
Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2018 -
This report examines changes in the distribution of household incomes in the UK, and the determinants and consequences of recent trends. This includes analysing changes not only in average living standards but also in household income inequality and measures of income poverty and deprivation. The report looks at the following key issues. Analysis of changes in living standards, the determinants of recent trends, and how pensioners have fared relative to non-pensioners.
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