Tyler Atkinson

A widely used method of assessing the medium-term underlying trend of inflation is to omit categories of price changes reflected in headline inflation that are volatile and unlikely to persist. One of the most common measures excludes food and energy prices, and is often called “core” inflation. Another is Trimmed Mean PCE inflation, which excludes price changes above and below certain percentile thresholds.

HomeEconomyDallas Fed Economics Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to raise productivity and economic growth, but there is concern it will replace workers or at least disrupt labor markets and temporarily squeeze employment during the transition from old occupations to new ones. In recent years, unemployment has gradually ticked up, and job searchers report increased difficulty finding new work. Is this related to AI?

HomeEconomyDallas Fed Economics Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to be 2.7 percent over the 12 months ended in August 2025 and has been above the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent target since early 2021. (We estimate August PCE inflation using the August Consumer Price Index and producer price index.) To better assess the underlying momentum in price changes, volatile items are often omitted from the inflation calculation.