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Do Cold Pools Propagate According to Theory?
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A Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors
1 Introduction Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast errors have decreased substantially in the last several decades due to improvements in observational quality and quantity, numerical models and data assimilation techniques (Landsea & Cangialosi, 2018; Rappaport et al., 2009). Yet, small track forecast errors can still lead to large differences in impacts. For example, Hurricane Ian in 2022 made landfall near Fort Myers.
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