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Articles by Umar Serajuddin
Why an extreme poverty line is still needed
Since 1990, the World Bank has tracked extreme poverty around the world using an international poverty line, often referred to as the extreme poverty line. Ending poverty under this line, currently set at $3 per person per day in 2021 prices, has long been integral to the mission of the World Bank and it underpins the first target of the Sustainable Development Goals. Using the extreme poverty line, global progress has been historic.
Global food security monitoring goes dark
Conflict reignited in the Middle East in late February 2026, sending energy prices sharply higher and widening macroeconomic uncertainty. The April 2026 World Food Security Outlook projects that severe food insecurity will exceed one billion people globally by 2028, with the 2030 estimate revised upward by 46 million people relative to the October 2025 outlook. Yet food-security projections have operational value only when they rest on a credible evidence base. That evidence base is weakening.
Global food security monitoring goes dark
Food security projections and the underlying data architecture have informed decisions at scale. The Outlook’s financing-needs series, which estimates the cash value required to cover 25 percent of minimum energy dietary needs for the affected population, was developed to inform the IDA pandemic needs assessment.
Global hunger nears one billion
Figure notes Figure 1 details. Global severely food-insecure population, 1999–2031 (millions). The solid black line shows historical estimates, combining observed Food Insecurity Experience Scale data (2015–2023) with model estimates (1999–2025). Estimates for 2024 and 2025 remain preliminary as newer data are incorporated.
From satellite data to development finance: how Earth observation is scaling impact across World Bank operations
“Data collected for one purpose have the potential to generate economic and social value in applications far beyond those originally anticipated.” This idea, highlighted in the World Development Report 2021: Data for Better Lives, is increasingly shaping how development institutions think about data. Unlocking that value requires more than availability — it requires systems that enable reuse, integration, and equitable access to the benefits data can generate.
The Atlas of Global Development 2026 shows the world at a critical moment: it is developing at its slowest pace
The latest edition is structured around the World Bank Group’s five knowledge pillars — People, Prosperity, Planet, Infrastructure, and Digital. It covers 12 important development topics, from the role of education for better jobs, to access to safe water, and the unfinished but promising digital revolution.
How are national statistical systems performing? The 2025 SPI update explains.
On 24 November 2025, the World Bank released 2025 update of the Statistical Performance Indicators (SPI), adding results for the 2024 calendar year and revising earlier years. The SPI provides an open-source framework for assessing the performance of statistical systems and the efforts to improve them. The SPI breaks down national statistical performance into five pillars and 22 dimensions, each backed by open data and code.
Lograr que los indicadores de diversas fuentes sean comparables
Las personas que se dedican a estudiar el tema del desarrollo suelen estar interesadas en utilizar los datos para hacer comparaciones en diversos niveles. Al hacerlo, los investigadores pueden obtener información valiosa que ayude a orientar la formulación de políticas dirigidas a mejorar los resultados de desarrollo en todos los niveles.
Making indicators from diverse sources comparable
Individuals studying development are often interested in using data to make comparisons at various levels. By using data to make these comparisons, researchers can develop valuable insights that inform policymaking aimed at improving development outcomes at all levels.
探秘《世界发展指标》:我们如何选择指标?
世界发展指标 (简称WDI) 是跨国时间序列发展统计数据的主要来源。《世界发展指标》涵盖 217 个经济体的近 1500 项指标。自从在《1978年世界发展报告》中作为一组不起眼的表格首次亮相以来,《世界发展指标》已有了显著发展。随着时间的推移,《世界发展指标》已成为一项开放的、易访问的资源,其用户遍布全球,既有经济学家、政策制定者和社会科学家,也有卫生、贫困、气候、教育等不同领域的从业人员。《世界发展指标》特别有价值的一点是其指标覆盖的质量、相关性和广度,方便用户进行跨国比较,长期分析可上溯至上世纪60 年代,并可进行快速的政策核查。 然而,随着全球发展挑战的日益多样化和数据产生的不断扩大,《世界发展指标》中可能纳入的指标清单也在扩大。从能源和数字接入到专业化劳动力市场统计数据,《世界发展指标》每年都会收到更多可能纳入的指标。归根结底,这是一个我们的数据和知识体系发展的机遇。但是,无节制的扩展也存在质量下降或使用户感到困惑的风险。...
Are the poorest countries being left behind?
With the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), world leaders made a bold pledge in 2015 to leave no one behind on the path of development by 2030. Half-way to the target date, some 22 countries historically of low-income status are still being left behind. These countries were in a larger group of 51 countries of low-income status toward the end of the 1980s. Unfortunately, after more than three decades, these 22 countries are still of low-income status today (see Table 1).
Missing evidence: tracking academic data use around the world
In recent decades, the amount of data produced has exploded, generating boundless opportunities for policies to improve people’s lives. Though data can be valuable in their raw form, the full value of data is only realized when they are analyzed to create insights, and these insights are converted to public policies or increased accountability. Academic research is a major source of these insights.
Time to stop referring to the “developing world”
When working in an international financial institution, it is hard to find a document that does not refer to “developing countries” or “the developing world.” (Fortunately, it is now rare to find the term “third world”.) In the World Bank, this concept typically encompasses all 135 countries as low- or middle-income, whose 6.7 billion people are home to 84% of the world’s population.
New SPI data: Seven charts to understand the performance of national statistical systems around the world
On January 18, 2024, the World Bank released new data for the Statistical Performance Indicators (SPI)—a set of 50+ indicators which measure the performance of national statistical systems around the globe. The SPI assesses the performance of national statistical systems in five key areas, known as pillars. Each of these pillars is supported by four or five dimensions and uses defined methods and indicators—all available as open data and open code.
Unpacking the Mystery of Missing Gender Data
Imagine embarking on a journey to an unknown destination only to find halfway through that two-thirds of your map is missing – this is the reality for gender statistics on the heels of the SDG Summit at the United Nations which marks the midpoint of the 2030 Agenda. In a recent working paper, “Missing SDG Gender Indicators”, we examine coverage of gender data in the SDG monitoring framework and find that only a third of gender related SDG data are available.
Visualizing Development: the 2023 Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals
Where do we stand in our efforts to end extreme poverty worldwide? How much progress have we made towards achieving affordable and clean energy? How can we respond to the human and economic costs of climate change? The World Bank’s 2023 Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals, published today, offers powerful data insights on the progress and setbacks in our efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the midpoint in their implementation.
The median’s new best friend? Introducing SDG 10.2.1
Growth in median income is a frequently used measure of societal progress. In contrast to its more popular cousin, growth in mean income, or growth in GDP per capita, the median reveals the progress of the ‘typical’ person in society and is not vulnerable to what happens at the tails of the distribution. If only the top of the distribution sees progress, the mean will increase but the median will not.
Not all data are created equal: why the adoption of international data standards pays off
In 2010, Ghana made international headlines when its nominal GDP grew 63% overnight as a result of adopting revised standards for its system of national accounts. When Nigeria rebased its GDP in 2014 for the first time in 24 years—likewise in an effort to comply with international data standards—its economy almost doubled, making it Africa’s largest. These large revisions aside, discussions of international data standards are typically not what keeps most people at the edge of their seats.
Does GDP growth necessitate environmental degradation?
We live in a globalizing world where countries are increasingly integrated across a variety of dimensions—economic, political, cultural, and environmental, to name a few. While globalization is often credited with increases in economic growth and GDP per capita, it’s not without its discontents. Among these, we increasingly see environmental issues like water and air pollution extend beyond national borders to affect neighboring countries, as well as the wider world.
The World Bank’s role in SDG monitoring
In 2015, leaders of 193 countries formed an ambitious plan to guide global development action for the next 15 years by agreeing on a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Four years after their launch, the World Bank’s expertise in development data and its large repository of development indicators has played an important role in helping track progress made towards the achievement of the SDGs. How does SDG monitoring work and how is the World Bank involved?
Who is Deprived? Who Feels Deprived? Labor Deprivation, Youth and Gender in Morocco
Work is central to people’s lives and identity. For many, participating in the labor market is important beyond its obvious economic rewards as it also provides a sense of purpose and fulfillment. Conversely, labor deprivation impedes economic growth and leads to a feeling of emptiness and exclusion. Yet, it is not uncommon to see large differences in attitudes towards employment across social groups.
Trade data for assessing the impact of COVID-19
Image: Earl Manus/shutterstock.com With the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, governments, policy makers, national and international organizations and researchers have focused all their attention on dealing with this crisis. To take timely and appropriate decisions with the right policies, access to quality data and relevant analysis is vital. The impact of the crisis is spread across several industries/sectors, including healthcare, finance, jobs, trade, and national accounts.
When is there enough data to create a global statistic?
Open a newspaper and chances are you will find some global statistic referring to how the world is faring: “Global growth is projected to recover”, “the number of refugees worldwide is set to increase for the third straight year”, “global CO2 emissions are reaching an all-time high.” The demand for global statistics is perhaps best embodied in the Sustainable Development Goals, whose 231 indicators for the most part can be and are aggregated to the global level.
The Statistical Performance Indicators: A new tool to measure the performance of national statistical systems
Today, the World Bank is launching the Statistical Performance Indicators (SPI) – a new set of indicators to measure the performance of national statistical systems in 174 economies from 2016 to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the importance of trustworthy data for governments, businesses, and civil society to make good decisions that affect everyone's lives and livelihood.
The 2020 Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals: Stories and insights through innovative visuals
Today, the World Bank published the 2020 Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals. This year’s Atlas is a web publication that guides readers through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) using interactive storytelling and innovative data visualizations.
New World Bank country classifications by income level: 2020-2021
Updated country income classifications are available here. The World Bank assigns the world’s economies to four income groups—low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income countries. The classifications are updated each year on July 1 and are based on GNI per capita in current USD (using the Atlas method exchange rates) of the previous year (i.e. 2019 in this case).
COVID-19: Testing for all or testing for some? A town’s key lesson in testing everyone for coronavirus
As of April 29th 2020, there were over 3.13 million confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) globally, with the United States, Spain, and Italy having the highest numbers. This number is most likely an undercount of all cases because the way a country tests for coronavirus can have a huge impact on the number of cases they detect. We explore how different testing approaches can dramatically limit countries’ abilities to flatten the curve of infections.
A look at Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness
Putting a price on carbon pollution is seen as one of the most powerful and efficient strategies governments and businesses are using to respond to climate change. That’s the key message in a new Executive Briefing paper, issued today by the carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition, which includes governments, businesses and civil society groups all working together to advance carbon pricing. The paper explores the impact of carbon pricing on competitiveness.
Much of the world is deprived of poverty data. Let’s fix this.
Cross posted from the Let's Talk Development Blog The availability of poverty data has increased over the last 20 years but large gaps remain About half the countries we studied in our recent paper, Data Deprivation, Another Deprivation to End are deprived of adequate data on poverty. This is a huge problem because the poor, who often lack political representation and agency, will remain invisible unless objective and properly sampled surveys reveal where they are, and how they’re faring.
Much of the world is deprived of poverty data. Let’s fix this
The availability of poverty data has increased over the last 20 years but large gaps remain About half the countries we studied in our recent paper, Data Deprivation, Another Deprivation to End are deprived of adequate data on poverty. This is a huge problem because the poor, who often lack political representation and agency, will remain invisible unless objective and properly sampled surveys reveal where they are, and how they’re faring.
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