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Articles by Victor Cha
Human Rights Abuses in Drone Production at Yelabuga
This joint report was originally published by the George W. Bush Institute on October 14, 2026. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created a demand for drones that Moscow could not initially meet. Its answer was an arrangement to manufacture the Iranian-designed Shahed on Russian soil. This report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in cooperation with the George W.
Human rights abuses in drone production at Yelabuga
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, known collectively as CRINK, are seeking to undermine U.S. leadership by weakening the rules-based international order. Human rights violations and trafficking at the Alabuga complex in the Russian town of Yelabuga illustrate the increasingly complex ties among the CRINK regimes. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created a demand for drones that Moscow could not initially meet.
The Long Arm of China and North Korea’s Repression
Victor Cha testified before the House Foreign Affairs East Asia and Pacific Subcommittee about how China facilitates North Korea's human rights abuses on three fronts: enabling abuses of North Koreans at the border, driving North Korean coerced labor into global supply chains, and cooperating with North Korea on human rights abuses tied to the Ukraine war.
Iran can’t have nuclear weapons but North Korea can? There’s logic here.
Iran can’t have nuclear weapons but North Korea can? There’s logic here. (washingtonpost.com) Iran can’t have nuclear weapons but North Korea can? There’s logic here. By Victor Cha 2026081910160400 One thing that's consistent about U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy is its inconsistency. After the denuclearization of Libya, the U.S. government embraced a view that all denuclearization should follow the CVID model — for complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization — that succeeded there.
After Iran: A Scenario for Renewed Trump-Kim Summitry
U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on the sidelines of the June 2026 G7 meetings in France that he would restart diplomacy with North Korea. As if to accentuate the point, he later posted a picture on social media of his stroll with Kim Jong-un at the Capella Hotel in Singapore.
Old Friends, New Calculations: A Reset in China-North Korea Relations
The reset of relations provides a window into what North Korea hopes to get out of revived relations with China. Pak’s July visit to China included site visits to the Beijing Rail Transit Command Center, the Port of Tianjin, China Resources Recycling Group’s Green Low-Carbon Circular Economy Demonstration Base, and a motor plant in Tianjin. Pak also toured Tianjin’s Haihe River, a popular tourist location.
The G7’s Indo-Pacific Gap and Trump’s 2027 Opportunity
Two of the countries best positioned to contribute to the G7’s expanded agenda remain outside the group’s permanent membership. Credit: Depositphotos Subscribe for ads-free reading The G7 has changed almost everything – except its membership. Created in the 1970s to coordinate among the largest industrial democracies, its agenda has become impressively expansive. Canada’s G7 presidency in 2025 produced initiatives on critical minerals and artificial intelligence.
Is America's North Korea Policy Out of Touch with Reality?
For decades, U.S. policy toward North Korea has been organized around a single objective: denuclearization. Yet despite sanctions, diplomatic initiatives, and pressure campaigns, Pyongyang has continued to expand its nuclear arsenal while deepening its ties with Russia and China. By Christopher S.
Who Are G7’s Top Performers?
Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) will convene in Évian-les-Bains on June 15–17, 2026, at a time of great geopolitical and economic disruption. This will be the first multilateral leaders’ meeting of this elite club of advanced industrialized democracies since the start of U.S. and Israeli military action on Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The war in Ukraine will also remain at the top of the agenda.
The 2026 World Cup: Sports and Conflict
The world will come together for the World Cup in North America starting this week. To what extent can the gathering of athletes, the spirit of competition, and the goodwill created by sport provide opportunities for diplomacy in a world disrupted by war? Mega sporting events like the World Cup and the Olympics are intimately tied to global affairs as athletes compete against each other, adorned in the national colors of their country.
Strategic Clarity: Reassessing the Value of China to Korea
The Lee Jae Myung government has pursued a nuanced strategy with China, one that evades regional security issues (e.g., Taiwan and the South China Sea), while maintaining “neighborly” relations and acknowledging the importance of soliciting Chinese cooperation on issues ranging from North Korea to stable supplies of critical minerals.
Why Japan and South Korea Won’t Go Nuclear
In recent years, speculation among analysts, experts, and scholars that America’s two key allies in the Indo-Pacific could finally pursue nuclear weapons has intensified. The eminent diplomat Henry Kissinger predicted in 2023 that Japan would go nuclear within the decade. The international relations scholar John Mearsheimer has made the point that nuclearization by Seoul and Tokyo would be the “logical outcome” if the United States were to continue being distracted by conflicts in the Middle East.
Victor Cha
VICTOR CHA is Distinguished University Professor at Georgetown University and President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served as Director for Asian Affairs at the U.S. National Security Council from 2004 to 2007 and on the Defense Policy Board as an adviser to the secretary of defense from 2021 to 2025. He is a co-author, with Ramon Pacheco Pardo, of Korea: A New History of South and North.
Can Sports Diplomacy Open a Door on the Korean Peninsula?
North Korea’s Naegohyang Women’s Football Club is scheduled to arrive in South Korea on May 17, ahead of its match against South Korea’s Suwon FC Women in the semifinal of the Asian Football Confederation Women’s Champions League on May 20. This will be the first visit by North Korean athletes to South Korea since December 2018, and the first time a North Korean club football team has visited South Korea.
Learning to Live With a Nuclear North Korea
Play Listen to the Episode 00:00 / 00:00 MP3 Close audio player For most of the past few decades, North Korea was considered a top challenge for American foreign policy. In the past few years, however, it has mostly receded from attention—not because the U.S. approach to the problem succeeded but because it so completely failed.
North Korea as It Is
In the early 1990s, even before North Korea had any nuclear bombs, the United States began to realize that it would be the world’s next nuclear threat. At the time, North Korea barely had enough fissile material to build one or two crude bombs. It lacked the delivery systems that would allow such weapons to reach the United States. And it would be well over 15 years before the regime would do its first nuclear test.
Suspected Uranium Enrichment Building at Yongbyon Complete
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The Impact of the Iran Conflict on South Korea: By the Numbers
One month into the Iran conflict, no noncombatant country has been hit harder than South Korea. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which South Korea routes 70 percent of its crude oil imports, has exposed severe vulnerabilities across energy, petrochemicals, semiconductors, and the broader macroeconomy. The KOSPI recorded its worst single-session in its 43-year history. The South Korean won hit a 17-year low.
The Impact of the Iran Conflict on South Korea: By the Numbers
One month into the Iran conflict, no noncombatant country has been hit harder than South Korea. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which South Korea routes 70 percent of its crude oil imports, has exposed severe vulnerabilities across energy, petrochemicals, semiconductors, and the broader macroeconomy. The KOSPI recorded its worst single-session in its 43-year history. The South Korean won hit a 17-year low.
A Closer Look at the Yelabuga UAV Factory
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Headline image Copyright © 2025 Vantor.
Navigating uncertainty in US-ROK economic ties
On February 21, 2026, Andrew Yeo, senior fellow and SK-Korea Foundation Chair, joined two leading experts—Professor Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and distinguished professor at Georgetown University; and Professor Dukgeun Ahn, former dean and professor of international trade law and policy at Seoul National University and also former minister of trade, industry, and energy for the Republic of...
North Korean UAVs at Panghyon
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Headline image Copyright © 2025 Vantor.
The United States-Republic of Korea Alliance: Strengthening Extended Nuclear Deterrence in a Shifting Strategic Landscape
For the past seven decades, the United States’ extended deterrence commitment to the Republic of Korea (ROK) has been critical to advancing two central aims of the alliance: (1) deterring North Korean aggression and (2) preventing nuclear proliferation by giving South Korea a credible alternative to developing its own nuclear arsenal. Today, however, a shifting geopolitical environment has introduced new areas of uncertainty into the alliance.
State of Play: The Global Impact of the SCOTUS Decision on IEEPA Tariffs
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) declared President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs against U.S. trading partners illegal. The Supreme Court did not address whether the administration will have to refund tariff revenues collected from over 300,000 companies.
South Korea Can Stand Up to China
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is pulling out all the stops to improve ties with Beijing. During a four-day state visit to China in early January, he snapped a selfie with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on a new Xiaomi smartphone that his hosts had given him, told an audience that he sought to “upgrade” Chinese-South Korean relations, and signed more than a dozen agreements on topics as varied as trade, climate, and transportation.
SCOTUS Ruling and Korea
The Supreme Court’s ruling on the consolidated cases of V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump and Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump is expected tomorrow. The Court’s expedited hearing of the case will determine the legality of Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose global tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Here are some key numbers to keep in mind with this impending decision.
Creeping Sovereignty? China’s Maritime Structures in the Yellow Sea
Under the 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement, South Korea and China established a jointly managed maritime area called the Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ) in the Yellow Sea (West Sea).
Progress at the Much-Delayed New Yalu River Bridge
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Headline image Copyright © 2025 Vantor.
The current state of U.S. relations with North Korea
Dr. Victor Cha, senior fellow at the George W. Bush Institute and President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently answered questions about the current state of U.S.-North Korea relations and his recommendations for what the U.S. should do to support the North Korea people. Read the interview below. The state of U.S.-North Korean relations is in neutral right now.
Creeping Sovereignty? China’s Maritime Structures in the Yellow Sea (West Sea)
Analysis, Commentary, Foreign Affairs Photo Credit: CSIS Beyond Parallel Under the 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement, South Korea and China established a jointly managed maritime area called the Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ) in the Yellow Sea (West Sea). The agreement was the first fisheries agreement between the two countries and was designed to temporarily manage overlapping exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims in the Yellow Sea.
Significant Progress of the North Korea-Russia Road Bridge
, by , and Construction of the new Russia-North Korea Tumangang-Khasan road bridge has made significant progress in the past six months. The bridge and its supporting infrastructure should be open during the first quarter of 2026, depending on the resources committed to the project and the severity of the upcoming winter.
Korea-China Standoffs in the PMZ
Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China’s trade bullying calls for an Article 5
China’s trade bullying calls for an Article 5 (washingtonpost.com) China’s trade bullying calls for an Article 5 By Victor Cha; Ellen Kim; Andy Lim 2025102712005600 It's been a busy month for Chinese trade weaponization. Last week, Beijing slapped punitive sanctions on five U.S. subsidiaries of a Korean shipping company. This followed its Oct. 9 announcement imposing sweeping export controls on rare earth minerals.
Renewed China-DPRK Diplomacy: Symbolism or Substance?
China’s second-highest ranking official, Premier Li Qiang, visited the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) from October 9 to October 11, 2025, to celebrate the 80th anniversary of North Korea’s ruling party, the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). Li’s trip marks the highest-level visit by a Chinese official to the DPRK since 2019.
10/11/25 Korean News and Commentary
Quotes of the Day: “Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.” – William James "The greatest way to live with honor in this world is to be what we pretend to be." – Socrates "A superior man is modest in his speech, but exceeds in his actions." – Confucius 1. North Korea’s Kim Flaunts New ICBM Able to Reach U.S. 2. Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? (Timothy Cho and north Korea) 3. Despite massive military might, Kim Jong-un is caught in his own trap 4.
The U.S. and South Korea need to salvage their tariff and investment agreement—for the sake of the alliance Original
South Korean president Lee Jae Myung joked that he avoided a “Zelenskyy moment” during his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump last August. There was much to celebrate at the long-delayed summit: An agreement that reduced U.S. tariffs on its sixth-largest trading partner from 25% to 15%, and alignment on the two allies’ security policies towards North Korea. But—as is now common under the Trump administration—those good feelings quickly soured.
South Korea’s Response to U.S. Demands: Minimize Risk, Maximize Reward
This commentary is part of a report from the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department entitled Navigating Disruption: Ally and Partner Responses to U.S. Foreign Policy.
Secret North Korea missile base: Sinpung-dong
Skip to content SPECIAL The risk for cyber or U.S. critical infrastructure attacks in Iran conflict | READ MORE → Powered by the McCrary Institute at Auburn University Get your cyber briefing Straight from our experts to your inbox
Undeclared North Korea: Sinpung-dong Missile Operating Base
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
South Korea Gets Its Trade Deal with the United States
Q1: Is this a good deal for the United States and South Korea? A1: Any deal that averts a tariff war between two military allies is good by definition. But there are still many details to be ironed out.
North Korea's First Ballistic Missile Submarine Still Not Operational
, by , and Almost two years since its launching, North Korea’s first true ballistic missile submarine, the No. 841 Hero Kim Kun Ok, is not yet fully operational. Kim Jong-un considers the No. 841 Hero Kim Kun Ok a major component of not only “three-dimensional naval battles,” but also as the second leg of North Korea’s developing nuclear triad capable of “preemptive or retaliatory” strikes.
Chinese Platforms in the Yellow Sea's South Korea-China PMZ
Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Behind Shuttered Borders: A view into North Korea’s COVID-19 experiences
This joint report was originally published by the George W. Bush Institute on June 17, 2025. This report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in cooperation with the George W. Bush Institute, is to our knowledge the first published review of human rights abuses inside North Korea associated with the Covid-19 global pandemic.
How War Between Iran and Israel Could Escalate-and Drag in the United States
On the evening of June 12, Israel launched a series major of strikes against Iran. The targets included Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and multiple senior military and political officials. In a televised speech, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared success. Iranian officials, meanwhile, swore revenge. Leaders across the region braced for unrest. To better understand what Israel's strikes might mean, Foreign Affairs senior editor Daniel Block spoke with Daniel B. Shapiro.
Suspected Uranium Enrichment Building at Yongbyon
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
How Global Governance Can Survive
The last time U.S. President Donald Trump attended a Group of Seven (G-7) leaders’ summit in Canada, in 2018, he treated it like a reality TV show. “Trump Blows Up G7 Agenda”, read the headline in Politico. Trump arrived late; called for Russia’s readmission to the group (a nonstarter with the other members); described the host, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as “very dishonest and weak”; and refused at the last minute to endorse the joint statement at the end of the meeting.
How Global Governance Can Survive
The last time U.S. President Donald Trump attended a Group of Seven (G-7) leaders’ summit in Canada, in 2018, he treated it like a reality TV show. “Trump Blows Up G7 Agenda,” read the headline in Politico. Trump arrived late; called for Russia’s readmission to the group (a nonstarter with the other members); described the host, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as “very dishonest and weak”; and refused at the last minute to endorse the joint statement at the end of the meeting.
Raised Destroyer Arrives at Najin
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Second Choe Hyon Destroyer at Chongjin Raised
Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is a Senior Fellow for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Victor Cha is President of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jennifer Jun is an Associate Fellow and Project Manager for Imagery Analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Headline image Copyright © Planet 2025.
South Korea’s New President: Frying Pan to Fire
Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) secured a landslide victory in the 21st South Korean presidential election on June 3. With 49.30 percent of the vote and a 79.38 percent voter turnout—the highest since 1997—Lee comes into office with a solid popular mandate and comfortable control of the National Assembly, something his predecessor never had. Q1: What happened in today's election?
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