Will Kingston-Cox

Russia’s new South Ossetian playbook and its potential applicability elsewhere. South Ossetia has long been the most deeply penetrated of Russia’s post-Soviet, de facto states. The small breakaway territory, internationally recognized as part of Georgia, could not sustain its security, budget, or external connections without Moscow.

This article was first published in Transitions on August 13, 2026. Reposted with permission. Russia’s new South Ossetian playbook and its potential applicability elsewhere. South Ossetia has long been the most deeply penetrated of Russia’s post-Soviet, de facto states. The small breakaway territory, internationally recognized as part of Georgia, could not sustain its security, budget, or external connections without Moscow.

Transnistria's secessionist project is in structural decline. Russian patronage has thinned and public services have deteriorated. The Sheriff conglomerate, the dominant economic force in the region, has reoriented toward European markets in ways that sit uneasily alongside Moscow's strategic preferences.