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Articles by William E. Pomeranz
The Kremlin’s War Bubble and Its Hidden Vulnerabilities
In Moscow, life continues with an air of striking normalcy. US President Donald Trump’s calls to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian war do not evoke urgency or a rush to compromise. Instead, the Kremlin and Russia’s elites see an opportunity in Trump’s push for a settlement—one that allows them to maximize their gains while he remains preoccupied with reshaping US foreign policy and as America’s allies appear uncertain and fatigued.
Where to Find Ukraine in Trump’s Second Inaugural Address
Woodrow Wilson refashioned the relationship of the United States to the outside world. One could say that he created modern American foreign policy. He presided over an emerging superpower that—by 1917—was willing to enter a world war very far from American soil. Too many US interests converged on a Europe awash in war, Wilson believed, and too many US interests converged on the peace that would follow the war.
Patience and Persistence as the Path to Ending the War
Throughout his campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly pledged to end Russia’s war against Ukraine within 24 hours. While this ambitious timeline has since been extended—his point person on Ukraine is now tasked with delivering a deal within 100 days—Trump wasted no time after his inauguration to intensify his public push for peace. On Wednesday, the new US president escalated the pressure by threatening tariffs and sanctions if Moscow refuses to cooperate.
Putin’s 2025 New Year’s Address-And an Anniversary Forgotten
The end of 2024 brought a series of significant setbacks for Vladimir Putin: the collapse of the Assad regime, an environmental disaster in the Black Sea, the closure of the main gas pipeline to Europe, and the distancing of key Russian allies like Hungary and Slovakia. Nevertheless, Putin’s New Year’s message remained upbeat. He looked ahead to the upcoming 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Germany in World War II, assuring the nation of its strength.
Russia’s Payments Crisis amid Its War against Ukraine
The Russian-Ukrainian war remains mired in a deadlock with neither side able to deliver a knockout blow. Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience and unity and has taken the war to Russia in Kursk. Russia is simply trying to find the manpower to stay in the field and defeat Ukraine village by village. No negotiations loom on the horizon.
The Sick Man of Eurasia
The news coming out of the Russian Federation is bleak. Ukraine’s attack on Kursk has garnered the most attention, but this incursion also represents a symbolic blow as well. Kursk serves as a sacred place in Soviet military folklore where the Red Army achieved one of its most decisive and glorious victories in World War II. Today Kursk stands as symbol of a military retreat and incompetence, exposing all the weaknesses that now entangle Russia in this war of its own choosing.
Putin’s Cabinet: Team of Rivals or Nest of Vipers?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now gone on 841 days and counting (the newspaper Kommersant keeps a running daily tab). Putin euphemistically still refers to the conflict as a special military operation, as opposed to its actual name: war. With no end in sight, the recriminations have now bubbled up to the surface in the Kremlin. The political infighting is taking place at the highest levels of government. Several high-ranking generals have been indicted on bribery and other criminal charges.
Back to the Future: Russia’s New (and Old) Economic Policy
Vladimir Putin is putting a brave face on Russia’s downward economic spiral. To survive, he has gone back to core economic principles. Unfortunately, most of them date back to the Soviet Union and entail nationalization, which future leaders will find difficult to unwind.
The Sanctions Are Working-Just Ask Russia’s Friends
The beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine produced several pledges of cooperation on one side or the other of the conflict. No country was more effusive in its support for Russia than China, which said there would be “no limits” to its support. The limits to that support appear to be at hand, however. It took a while, but the pressure from the sanctions is mounting and having an impact on the Russian economy.
Cracks in the BRICS as Putin’s Legal Exposure Grows
President Putin’s decision to skip the annual BRICS meeting in South Africa last week was greeted with resignation in Moscow and seeming relief in Johannesburg. Putin delayed this decision to the last minute; Russia is a founding member and one of the organization’s strongest supporters, so it was quite clear that Putin wanted to go. There was only one hitch: if Putin went to South Africa, he would have to be arrested.
The Russian Idea Revisited
Some years after the Soviet Union’s collapse, President Boris Yeltsin initiated a national search for a new Russian idea. The past was too raw and controversial, however, to reach any consensus on or reconciliation as to what constitutes Russian identity. Fast-forward thirty years, and Russia again is actively seeking a unifying idea, this time during a time of war, economic sanctions, and international isolation.
What the Last Days of the Trump Administration Mean for South Asia
As the Trump administration wraps up four tumultuous years in office, it is unsurprisingly not going away quietly. Recent days have brought a flurry of final-hour developments and moves. While none of them directly relate to South Asia, several of them could have a significant impact on the region, and on the incoming Biden administration’s relations with it. The most troubling recent development is the January 6 assault on the Capitol.
Does the Light on the Hill Still Shine Bright? Reactions to the Capitol Siege
On January 6, 2021, the day the U.S. Congress met to certify President-Elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory, a pro-Trump protest turned violent, overwhelming security, breaching and attacking the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, DC. As these shocking events unfolded, the eyes of the world were on the U.S. and the state of its democracy.
Russian Trivia Quiz
Every country has bits of common knowledge that people share and take for granted, whether true or false, important or inconsequential. The Kennan Institute has gathered a few such bits of Russian trivia that are familiar to most people in Russia but not necessarily well known outside the country.
Russia’s “Little Green Men” In Voting Booths
BY SERGEY PARKHOMENKO It took a little over 24 hours after the end of the unprecedented seven-day marathon vote on the Russian constitutional amendments for us to see what lesson to take from this plebiscite. Traditional mobilization techniques have failed to provide Vladimir Putin and his system of power with the desired level of popular support, which is at least half of the country’s electorate.
Statement from The Wilson Center
The Wilson Center was chartered by Congress in 1968 as the official memorial to President Wilson. The namesake of our institution – while a visionary in international affairs – held racist views and implemented racist policies as President of Princeton University and as President of this country. As recently as our nation’s marking of Juneteenth this year, we have acknowledged this aspect of Wilson’s legacy. In February of this year, the Wilson Center’s Hubert H.
Will U.S. Protests Lead to Change?
June 23, 202019:40 In this edition of Wilson Center NOW we are joined by Susan Stokes, the Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. She discusses the current Black Lives Matter movement and global protests over the killing of George Floyd.
Ground Truth Briefing | 2019: A Pivotal Year of Protest in Latin America
Ground Truth Briefing | 2019: A Pivotal Year of Protest in Latin America Please note: Ground Truth Briefings are conducted exclusively by phone. There will be no physical meeting at the Wilson Center. In 2019, the depth and ferocity of the rage that spilled into the streets in countries throughout the Americas—Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, and Venezuela—took leaders and many long-time observers by surprise.
Extortionomics and Ideas to Leverage the Digital Revolution
Mexico has been labeled and praised as one of the countries that “has done well” because it implemented several reforms—some of which were both profound and transforming—in topics such as macroeconomic stability, antitrust, and energy, among others. In certain cases, the country implemented only gradual reforms and stakeholders opposed to the changes have not been affected. In spite of this, the effort did not translate into faster growth rates.
Kennan Cable No. 39: A Traditional State and a Modern Problem: Russia Rewrites its Internet Extremism Laws
By William E. Pomeranz and Kathleen E. Smith In 2012, the police unexpectedly summoned Vitold Filippov, the leader of a regional nationalist party in Tatarstan, for questioning. The reason for his interrogation, Filippov soon discovered, was that he had “liked” a picture of Edward Norton from the film American History X, where Norton displayed a swastika tattoo on his chest. Indicted for extremism, Filippov eventually was charged with the lesser administrative offence of promoting Nazi symbols.
The Ever-Shrinking World of Russian Politics
Vladimir Putin’s initial appointments since his reelection have produced few surprises. Many of the old guard remain in place, most notably Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Meanwhile, the “new” faces include Alexei Kudrin as head of the Audit Chamber. Kudrin, of course, is not new at all, having previously served for more than a decade as finance minister.
Commentary: The stunning audacity of Putin’s cash payment demands
The standard policy prescription for Washington’s dealings with Russia is situational: Agree to disagree on certain issues, but try to find areas where cooperation is possible. The areas where the two nations can cooperate, however, have drastically diminished over the past week. The United States on October 7 demanded a war crimes investigation of Russia for its air strikes in Syria, particularly in Aleppo.
Opinion | How Putin the technocrat transformed into Putin the autocrat
Putin also surely understands that reform is the moment of greatest vulnerability for a Russian leader (just ask Mikhail Gorbachev). And Putin’s intent is always to maintain control, as recent prosecutions attest. Putin went from being a largely non-ideological technocrat in his first two terms to being to a staunch conservative nationalist, sacrificing political pluralism and economic diversity. His third-term policy choices have narrowed his options.
William E. Pomeranz | Wilson Center
William Pomeranz is the Deputy Director of the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. In addition, Dr. Pomeranz teaches Russian law at the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies, Georgetown University.
Putin’s breakout year
This year marked the 25th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The celebrations were expected to cover well-trodden territory: The triumph of democracy over communism; the emergence of Europe as a single market with open borders; and Russia’s loss of great power status. Yet, none of the above narratives came true; instead, 2016 might well be remembered as the year that the post-Cold War consensus fell apart. And no one is more responsible for this development than Vladimir Putin.
Putin Will Pay Big Price for Trump Friendship | RealClearMarkets
Alexei Nikolsky/Pool Photo via APSuccessful politicians usually enjoy their fair share of luck along the way. With the election of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin received the luckiest break of all.
Commentary: Putin will pay a high price for Trump’s friendship
Successful politicians usually enjoy their fair share of luck along the way. With the election of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin received the luckiest break of all.
Stunning Audacity of Putin's Cash Demands | RealClearMarkets
Alexei Nikolsky/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via APThe standard policy prescription for Washington’s dealings with Russia is situational: Agree to disagree on certain issues, but try to find areas where cooperation is possible. The areas where the two nations can cooperate, however, have drastically diminished over the past week.TAGGED: William Pomeranz, Russia, Vladimir Putin
Commentary: The stunning audacity of Putin’s cash demands
The standard policy prescription for Washington’s dealings with Russia is situational: Agree to disagree on certain issues, but try to find areas where cooperation is possible.The areas where the two nations can cooperate, however, have drastically diminished over the past week.The United States on October 7 demanded a war crimes investigation of Russia for its air strikes in Syria, particularly in Aleppo.
Commentary: Putin’s domestic strategy: Counting the trees, missing the forest
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with military officials at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence in Sochi, Russia, May 13, 2016. Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/Kremlin via Reuters Putin displays similar decisiveness against his domestic opponents, as the recent dismantling of the editorial staff at the independent newspaper RBC attests. Yet, blinkered decision-making processes can lead to bad policy choices.
A whiff of panic in the Kremlin as Russia’s economy sinks further
Only one month in and 2016 has already delivered a series of devastating economic blows to Russia. As the price of oil and the value of the ruble plummet, so, too, does the standard of living of the average Russian citizen. Russia’s central bank has been widely praised for not spending the country’s hard-currency reserves to support the ruble — an admittedly losing proposition — yet it has done so on the backs of the Russian people.
A Whiff of Panic as Russian Economy Sinks
Russia’s economy has adjusted relatively well to lower oil prices thanks in large part to the ruble, which has tracked oil’s fortunes since 2014. But if oil falls below $30 for an extended period, then all bets are... more »
Opinion: Assad only winner as Russia jet downed
What a difference 12 hours can make. Just as the Syria peace negotiations in Vienna were moving ahead, news came that the Turkish air force had downed a Russian bomber that it claims had violated its airspace. Making things worse, a Russian marine was reportedly killed during an operation to rescue the two pilots that ejected from the plane.
Russian jet downing: Assad only winner (Opinion)
The incident further complicates French President Francois Hollande's mission to Washington and Moscow this week, a visit that was supposed to focus on the formation of a grand coalition against ISIS. Instead, Russian President Vladimir Putin has already referred to the downing of the plane as a "stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorists" and promised that there will be significant consequences.
Why Putin’s move into Syria may prove one step too far
In his United Nations speech on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called on the world to join Russia’s fight against terrorism while preserving Syria as a nation. He had already boldly forced the issue by sending troops, weapons, and aircraft to Syria in the expressed hope that the rest of the world would feel compelled to follow his lead. Yet Putin has done nothing to prepare the groundwork, either internationally or domestically, for such an inherently risky move.
The EU may soon have Gazprom and Vladimir Putin running on fumes
For all of President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric about Russian nationalism and economic self-reliance, he finds himself surprisingly constrained in his ability to respond to the European Commission’s action against Gazprom. The European Commission’s decision to bring antitrust charges against the Russian energy giant sparked an immediate complaint from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He loudly protested that the European Union was changing the rules in midstream.
An investor’s view of why Putin’s days may be numbered
Investor Bill Browder, author of “Red Notice,” explains how Russian President Vladimir Putin gained total control over Russia, including its oligarchs, in what he calls a “Sopranos moment.” Browder set up shop in Moscow during the country’s Wild West days in 1996, but his hopes that a “normal” market would emerge never materialized. Privatization looked good from a distance, Browder said, but it was like building a beautiful house without plumbing and electricity.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia is treading water in a sea of red ink
As President Vladimir Putin looks out on to the world stage, he should be relishing Russia’s renewed status as a global player. But when Putin looks homeward, he sees a different reality. Three months into 2015, Russia’s economic forecast ranges from gloomy to catastrophic. Yet in contrast to his aggressive response in Ukraine, Putin has been the picture of inaction domestically. He has intervened in the financial markets but not on Main Street, avoiding any hint of structural reforms.
Vladimir Putin’s economic plan: Bread and vodka
President Vladimir Putin needs two years to fix Russia’s current economic mess. At least that is what he gave himself at his December end-of-year news conference. To date, Putin’s actions have concentrated on shoring up the financial sector, with bank bailouts and sporadic, largely ineffective currency interventions.
Putin’s created an economic crisis and left Moscow no easy way out
Western sanctions have left Russia in dire financial circumstances — stuck somewhere between recession and stagnation. Though proven solutions exist for what now ails Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s geo-strategic and political choices have rendered these traditional economic approaches unworkable.
Putin’s created an economic crisis and left Moscow no easy way out
Western sanctions have left Russia in dire financial circumstances — stuck somewhere between recession and stagnation. Though proven solutions exist for what now ails Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s geo-strategic and political choices have rendered these traditional economic approaches unworkable.
Is there a new crack in the West’s sanctions regime against Russia?
President Barack Obama’s speech at the United Nations Wednesday offered to roll back the U.S. sanctions if Russia takes the “path of diplomacy and peace.” This overture comes on the heels of an emerging ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and continuing discussions in Minsk to find a political solution to the turmoil in eastern Ukraine. Obama’s U.N. speech, however, opens up the possibility of creating some daylight between the United States and the EU sanction programs.
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