Yini Zheng

1 Introduction The extraordinary mechanical performance of spider silk (∼1.4 GPa tensile strength, ∼150 MJ m−3 toughness) has inspired extensive efforts to engineer synthetic protein-based materials with comparable properties [1, 2]. These outstanding characteristics originate from a hierarchical microstructure, wherein aligned β-sheet nanocrystals are dispersed within an amorphous matrix, enabling a unique combination of strength and extensibility [3].

Considerable human judgment is involved in demand forecasting. When managers judge demands under uncertainty, they inevitably use signals to update their demand information. These signals are seldom perfect; hence, managers hold behavioral bias about the signal fidelity, that is, over- or under-estimating the signal fidelity. This article models managers' behavioral bias about signal fidelity in Bayesian demand forecasting and explores its impact on competitive firms.