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Articles by Alex Korff
Bijan Robinson Scouting Report
By Alex Korff | Updated on Tue, 07 Jan 2025 . 5:25 PM EST Height: 5’11”Weight: 215 BMI: 30.0Draft Age: 21.2NFL Draft Pick: Round 1, Pick 8 Draft Sharks Model Score: 9.36Analytics Score: 0.88Film Score: 0.71Production Score: 0.98 Robinson should be the 1.01 in all rookie drafts. Yes, that means superflex, too. With his rushing skill and durability, Robinson is a hammer-like RB that can secure around a 70% snap share in an NFL backfield.
Best Week 9 Moves from Draft Sharks Fantasy Football Pros
By Shane Hallam | Updated on Thu, 31 Oct 2024 . 11:29 AM EDT Whether you're playing redraft, dynasty, or even DFS, knowing what moves to make is crucial to success. That's why we're having each of our fantasy football pros give you one move to take advantage of this week. Check back every week for new moves! You could do worse than Taysom Hill Alex Korff Taysom Hill is finally ramping up from his rib injury in Week 4.
Week 7 Regression Candidates
By Alex Korff | Updated on Fri, 18 Oct 2024 . 2:38 PM EDT In fantasy football, overperforming players (playing better than expected) will likely slow down. And underperforming players may improve to match their expected performance. We want to spot temporary spikes or dips to help predict the returns toward "normal." To spot regression candidates, I like to use expected points models. Expected = average/normal.
Fool’s Gold or Hidden Gems? Week 6 Regression Picks
By Alex Korff | Updated on Sat, 12 Oct 2024 . 9:40 AM EDT I've seen these terms incorrectly used interchangeably. Positive regression refers to a player returning to an expected or average level of performance after underperforming. It’s often used to identify players who are getting good opportunities—like targets or touches—but haven’t produced the expected results yet.
Fool’s Gold or Hidden Gems? Week 5 Regression Picks
By Alex Korff | Updated on Fri, 04 Oct 2024 . 10:23 AM EDT According to the Oxford Dictionary … Regression: [Statistics] a measure of the relation between the mean value of one variable (e.g. output) and corresponding values of other variables (e.g. time and cost). Clear as mud? In simpler terms, regression refers to the idea that if something performs above or below its usual level, it's likely to return to its normal or average performance over time.
Josh Jacobs Rebound Coming?
By Alex Korff | Updated on Fri, 27 Sep 2024 . 11:53 PM EDT “To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect” -- Oscar Wilde “If you do not expect the unexpected, you will not find it, for it is not to be reached by search or trail.” -- Heraclitus “Expect the unexpected baby” -- Mike Jones We have heard iterations of the phrase “expect the unexpected” thousands of times. But in this series, we will be doing the opposite.
Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds - Week 7
Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week? Another brutal week for injuries. I thought my fantasy season was over for those 5 minutes that Tyreek Hill was out. Thank God for cramps. Worse news: Fields, T-Law, Monty, Kyren Williams, Deebo, and maybe CMC all got banged up last week — another brutal week for our fantasy teams. Now sprinkle in six NFL teams on a bye. Good luck setting a lineup that doesn’t make you gag. Come on down Justice Hill, my new RB1 on a team. This is fine. Everything is fine.
Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds - Week 6
Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week? Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, James Conner, and Anthony Richardson are all out for at least four weeks. Some fantasy teams got decimated this weekend. Absolutely brutal. It was a particularly rough week for injuries, and now some managers might need to make some moves. That means it's time to t-t-t-trade.
Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds - Week 5
Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week? We're four weeks in, and we now have a pretty good idea about our fantasy teams and the NFL landscape. We always try not to overreact to the first week or two. Now, we have enough data that we can make some real choices and move forward. It's time to really look at your fantasy teams and decide your overall strategy. For all but about five teams in your league, the weakness is TE. Every. Dang. Year. Let’s see what we can do about it.
Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds - Week 4
Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week? Would you have gone for the record if you were Mike McDaniel? Just 3 points away from 73. I might have. But I'm a bad person. Anyways … We lost Mike Williams to a season-ending knee injury. But overall, we otherwise had decent injury success in Week 3. This means the trade value chart did not change too dramatically. Plus we are one week closer to maybe seeing Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor on a football field. That should put a smile on your face.
Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds - Week 3
Change your league, or change your league. “My league doesn’t trade.” “My league overvalues their players.” “Not in my league.” Excuses. If your league does not want to participate in trades, you need to work to change your league. Or, change to a different league next year. This is a game, and we should all strive to maximize fun. And trading makes fantasy fun. And what could be more fun than losing all your RBs just two weeks into the season?
Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds - Week 2
Trading makes fantasy fun. I enjoy a good fantasy draft, but trading will always have my heart. And that's why I started to build tools and charts to help people trade more. Trading improves activity, and an active league is a happy league. This chart will be a little different. This fantasy football trade value chart is all about understanding the market and looking for opportunities to gain profit. The more value we have on our teams, the better they will be.
Fantasy Draft Recap: Korff's FFPC Main Event
Can a Dolphins Duo Drive This Team? I don’t play in many analyst leagues or for high stakes. My primary purpose in playing fantasy football is to stay connected to my friends, destroy my co-workers, and insult their families along the way. So, this was my first FFPC Main Event, and I was VERY nervous. I usually don’t second-guess picks or stress about them. Until this one. The FFPC Main Event is a $2,000 entry, with a $1 million grand prize—no big deal.
Fantasy Football News from DraftSharks
By Alex Korff 18 hours ago Your Guide to Great Dynasty Trades Dynasty fantasy football is a year-round sport. Most of the action goes down in your dynasty league between Week 17 and Week 1 (the so-called “offseason”). NFL free agency, the NFL Draft, and even OTAs and training camps all create the need for dynasty trades. But how do you know if a trade is going to tip the balance in your favor? That’s where your dynasty trade value chart comes in.
NFL Draft Prospects | Breaking down the Draft Sharks Rookie Model
By Alex Korff 12:17pm EST 3/9/23 Introducing the Draft Sharks Rookie Model A lot of people are good at watching college football and “knowing” if a player is good or not. Is he “bendy”? Does he “have a lot of burst”? Maybe “good vision"? I am not one of those people. I am good with data. So, let’s talk about some data (and leave the tape breakdowns to the other guys).
NFL Draft Prospects | Breaking down the Draft Sharks Rookie Model
Introducing the Draft Sharks Rookie Model A lot of people are good at watching college football and “knowing” if a player is good or not. Is he “bendy”? Does he “have a lot of burst”? Maybe “good vision"? I am not one of those people. I am good with data. So, let’s talk about some data (and leave the tape breakdowns to the other guys). One of my first Draft Sharks projects was to build a model combining analytics with film grades to create an all-inclusive approach to rookie prospecting.
Best Fantasy Football Matchups: Week 13
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Best Fantasy Football Matchups: Week 12
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings: Travis Kelce Reigns Supreme
Thanksgiving week is here and it’s the best time of the year. We have football all day on Thursday as a distraction from family or a bonding experience with them. The best meal of the year (fingers crossed, we’re trying a new mashed potato recipe this year) is just the cherry on top for Thursday. Then we have college football rivalry games for two days before we resume a full NFL Sunday slate thanks to no byes.
Dynasty and redraft!
My friends, the trade deadline (in most leagues) is this week, and that means our time together is coming to a close. You still have a couple of days left to get those last-minute trades done to prepare those teams for the playoffs. This week I am back with both redraft and dynasty trade values all in one place! Please make sure you are using the correct chart when looking at trades. If you are in a redraft league and see 2024 picks on the chart, scroll up.
Best Fantasy Football Matchups Week 11
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
NBA Player Prop Bets: Ingram Bullies Chicago
As the sample size begins to get bigger, a conversation has to be had about the proper sample size to look at for a better indication of how a team is playing right now. For some teams that can be dictated by circumstances like a major injury or rotation shakeup but for teams where those are static, a baseline is needed. Two weeks has been a good indicator because there is generally a five-to-seven-game sample to play with that will show indications of any changes to the style of play. As always.
Week 10 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Miami Shines at Home
With three spreads of a touchdown or more, a big cluster of close matchups, and four teams on a bye, picks may be a little tougher to decipher in Week 10. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.
O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 10
Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets. Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4.
DeAndre Hopkins soars up the charts!
Can you believe we are already at Week 9 of the NFL season? This year has gone by crazy fast! Make sure to check league settings for your trade deadline. I have some Sleeper leagues that end this week. Most seem to be Week 11 (Yahoo and CBS) or Week 13 (ESPN). Don't miss out on your last chance to make some trades. I will be back in Week 10 and Week 11 for the final push! Note 1: The trends in the chart are versus the Week 7 values.
Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 9 Insights and Analysis
Hello and welcome to the Week 9 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions.
Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 8 Insights and Analysis
Hello and welcome to the Week 8 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions.
SharpClarke's Week 7 Betting Recap: Re-Thinking the 6-1 Giants
The NFL is... different in 2022. For years, if you didn't have an elite quarterback, you didn't have a strong chance of succeeding meaningfully in the NFL. But this season we have seen major drop-offs from Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford. Offenses across the league are struggling to combat defensive schemes that are primarily built to take away the explosive pass play.
Running backs are back!
A lot has happened since Week 5 of the NFL season and I am happy to be back this week with some updated trade value charts! Overall, we are seeing an increasing trend towards some of the league's young running backs ( Breece Hall, Ken Walker, Dameon Pierce, etc.) that is very promising. The top of the running back position has been relatively stable over the past two weeks as well.
Best Fantasy Football Matchups Week 7
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 7 Insights and Analysis
Hello and welcome to the Week 7 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions.
Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 6 Insights and Analysis
Hello and welcome to the Week 6 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions.
Fantasy football dynasty league trade value charts (October update)
We are well into the 2022 season and it is time for some updated dynasty trade values! Saquon Barkley is climbing up the chart as are many of the 2022 rookie wide receivers. I know some of my leagues have people already dropping out of contention and selling early. Make sure to scoop up value when you can and prepare to win your league. It is time to start looking at your rosters and making some tough decisions. But, there is still a lot of season left and things can change pretty rapidly.
Saquon Barkley to the top!
We are entering Week 5 of the NFL season and that means we need to talk about trading in fantasy football. Four weeks of data is enough to understand team needs and have a decent idea of future NFL team usage. The top of the charts has been very fluid this year, which is not normal. But we might start to see more stability with Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb at the top (Fingers crossed!). Let's keep moving and make some trades! Note 1: the trends are versus the Week 3 values.
Week 5 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Tampa Bay Breaks Two-Game Slide
This week we have a cluster of touchdown or more spreads which makes differentiating from your pool mates a little trickier. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.
Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 5 Insights and Analysis
Hello and welcome to the Week 5 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions.
Best Fantasy Football Matchups Week 5
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Best Fantasy Football Matchups Week 4
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. We have reached the first week in which aFPA gives us the edge in season-long and DFS. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 4 Insights and Analysis
Hello and welcome to the Week 4 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions.
Week 3 fantasy football adjusted trade valuation tool: Sun God rising
Week 3 of the NFL season is here and that means we have even more data points to try and make some trades. The running back position has been pretty disappointing overall this year, but I expect we will see it bounce back. People who went wide receiver heavy are probably riding that 2-0 high. Let's keep moving and make some trades! Note 1: the trends are versus the Week 1 values.
Week 2 Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays
The football gods are giving us a second straight legitimate matchup on Thursday Night Football. Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers travel to the midwest to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields.
Week 2 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers
All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game. Quarterbacks Matt Ryan, Colts (@ JAX, 29) The Colts had a rough first outing, falling behind the Texans 20-3 by the end of the third quarter.
Fantasy Football Positional Breakout Model: Week 1
This offseason at 4for4, I developed a new expected fantasy points model (using PPR scoring) in an attempt to contextualize a player's usage in each game. If you're unfamiliar with expected fantasy points, it is a look back at what we would have expected a player to score based on how they were used and targeted in their offenses. For example, a carry at the two-yard line is going to be worth much more than a carry outside the red zone, and expected fantasy points captures that.
Let's get it started!
It has been a boring 207 days without professional football. I spent time with my family, learned how to crochet, caught up on sleep, and was an all-around more well-adjusted adult. It was awful. That dark time in my life is over because football is back, baby! We are kicking off the season-long fantasy football campaign with the first edition of the trade value charts. Week 1 is here and it is time to look at trades. All of our seasons have just started, so do not panic and take it easy.
19 Fantasy Football IDP Risers And Fallers Heading Into The 2022 Season
With one fewer preseason game, that means one less game to glean any type of information from defenses and how they plan on deploying their packages. Within these first two games, we can make a few assumptions about a few defenders and who's IDP value could be on the rise and decline in 2022. More IDP Content: Overvalued Defenders | Undervalued Defenders | Projected 3-Down LBs | IDP Primer Here's a look at who's stock is rising and falling based on my observations after two preseason games.
6 Draft-Worthy Fantasy Football Players With Injury Concerns
We are in the thick of it at this point. It is fantasy football draft season. A significant part of preparing for fantasy football drafts is understanding average draft positions (ADPs) and utilizing them to your advantage when constructing your team. There are multiple variables that make up a player’s ADP: offense scheme, past success, and new arrivals/departures. Another key factor is injuries.
6 recent columns we love
We realize we put out a LOT of stories here - and some might get lost in the mix. So the editors decided to highlight six stories that have been fantastic - beyond the typical rankings and sleepers you expect from a draft kit. In other words, these columns are what we think make our preseason coverage so awesomely unique. Enjoy! 1.
2022 New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Preview
This installment in 4for4's team preview series will take a look at the New Orleans Saints. The series will cover every team in the NFL, going over all fantasy-relevant players with betting angles, as well.
Perfect Fantasy Football Draft: 5th in a 12-Team ESPN PPR League
If you are one to second guess and question every choice, the fifth spot in fantasy football drafts is for you. With a consensus top-five pretty much locked in, you don’t have to face the pressure of the wrong pick to kick off your roster. There may be a difference in preference between one or two guys among industry rankings, however, generally speaking, you can let the draft fall to you. This article will step through the perfect draft from the fifth spot in a 12-team ESPN PPR league.
2022 dynasty league fantasy football trade value charts (August update)
We finally have some football games happening and redraft season is starting to warm up. But don't worry, we still have some time to talk dynasty fantasy football. I am back with updated trade value charts for both SuperFlex and 1-QB formats. I got a lot of requests for 1-QB, and I finally did it! I threw both formats into the same excel download, just change the tabs to find the one you want. Not a ton changed from last month. Things have been pretty static, which is not a bad thing.
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