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Barry Pavel on Muck Rack

Barry Pavel

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Articles

From AI to the Arctic, Understanding the Future of Security: Q&A with Barry  Pavel

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By Barry Pavel
| RAND Corporation
After decades inside the halls of the Pentagon and the White House Situation Room, Barry Pavel has witnessed global power shifts firsthand. Now, as vice president and director of the RAND National Security Research Division, Pavel and his team help policymakers navigate a world where geopolitical tensions are rising and technology is redefining how nations compete.
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AI, doomsday, risks | Homeland Security Newswire

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By Barry Pavel
| Homeland Security News Wire Verified
AIHow Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations Published 18 July 2025 Visions for potential AGI futures: A new report from RAND aims to stimulate thinking among policymakers about possible impacts of the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) on geopolitics and the world order.
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How Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations

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By Barry Pavel, Ivana Ke, Gregory Smith, Sophia Brown-Heidenreich
| RAND Corporation
Key Findings The degree of centralization stands as perhaps the most crucial factor in AGI development. Highly centralized development favors established powers with substantial resources; decentralized paths may empower multiple actors but increase proliferation risks. Export controls, research funding allocation, and international governance frameworks are potential levers that may affect the relative centralization of AGI development.
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