‘Drought hits rain-fed agricultural regions particularly hard.’ Photograph: Nyein Chan Naing/EPA A powerful, or “super” El Niño – marked by 2C (3.6F) or greater increase in sea surface temperatures – is now highly probable for this year, lasting into 2027. Weakened trade winds allow warm surface waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific. This disrupts ocean circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide. El Niño is intensifying an already unequal global economy.