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Articles by Bruce Gyory
New York Election Preview | JD Supra
Throughout this 2022 midterm New York gubernatorial campaign, the common question has been whether there will there be a Red Wave or a Blue Wave. My response to this mix of inquiries from reporters, pundits, politicians and elected officials has been uniform: Riptides are more likely than partisan waves. Moreover, these riptides are likely to unsettle both Democratic and Republican candidates depending on the region, but perhaps even within a region depending on the office sought.
Lessons Learned from Al Vann’s Example
Editor's note: The following opinion piece originally was published on Jan. 28, 2014, following the retirement of then-New York City Council Member Al Vann, who died on July 14, 2022. Vann, a Democrat and giant in Brooklyn politics, represented District 36 in the council from 2002 through 2013, which included Bedford-Stuyvesant and Crown Heights. He also was a member of the Assembly from 1975 through 2001. There was a retirement party for Councilman Al Vann of Brooklyn last month.
The 2022 Midterms: Seven Gambles
In the wake of the Democrats’ poor showing in the 2021 off-year gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey as well as the local elections on Long Island, conventional wisdom has rendered a harsh verdict on Democratic prospects in the 2022 midterm elections for control of the narrowly divided House and Senate.
Joe Biden’s Fast 15 Days
In his first 100 days, Franklin Roosevelt jammed a transformative agenda through Congress—combating mass immiseration while setting a benchmark for future presidencies. Until now. Faced with a deadly pandemic and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, Joe Biden is driving to outpace FDR while navigating his fractious party and an entrenched opposition whose base believes he stole the presidency.
The GOP Has Nothing to Offer
I hung up the phone a bit stunned. A contact of mine in a GOP Senate office—a man I’ve known for twenty years, a man whose children I once coached in youth sports—told me that he could not support the Senate trial of former President Donald Trump for his actions regarding the Capitol insurrection. “He could have got us killed,” the man admitted. “And I’m not happy. But he shouldn’t be impeached.
What the Data Say About How Biden Should Govern
Last month, I examined the exit-poll data to answer the question How did Joe Biden win the presidential election? I distilled six “hard truths” that help explain his victory. Drawing on those findings, I want to turn to a related question: What lessons does his victory hold for how he should govern? This question may sound quaint after Donald Trump’s malicious incitement of a seditious riot at the Capitol and the partisan acrimony now surrounding the impeachment proceedings getting underway.
COVID Economic Relief: Go Big
The first—perhaps definitive—test of Joe Biden’s presidency is whether he can pass a meaningful relief package to address the economic wreckage wrought by COVID-19. Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposal includes $1,400 checks to individuals; enhanced unemployment benefits; an increased minimum wage; funding for struggling businesses; and aid to cash-strapped schools, states, and cities.
Ted Cruz Wants to Copy the Corrupt Process That Killed Reconstruction
Political campaigns always wind up getting messy, and the campaign to be MAGA’s favorite lawmaker in the post-Trump presidency GOP is no exception. Senator Josh Hawley jumped out to the early lead last week by announcing that he intended to object to the counting of the Electoral College votes that will take place in Congress on January 6.
In Praise of Those Who Resist Temptation
The greatest, most dangerous, and most frequent temptation faced by an elected official is the temptation to tell your constituents what they want to hear. It is our Satan’s apple. Telling people what they want to hear is the enemy of progress, because there is no progress without truth. But despite the obvious drawbacks, the temptation is strong; it’s part of human nature. Most regular people spend their entire lives trying to avoid being the bearer of even mildly disappointing news.
McConnell’s ‘Conscience’ Crisis
According to a New Years Eve report from Axios’s Jonathan Swan, on Thursday morning Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell privately characterized Congress’s upcoming vote to certify Joe Biden’s election victory as “the most consequential I have ever cast” and told members of the GOP conference that they should treat it as “a vote of conscience.” Keep in mind, this vote is supposed to be a formality. There should be very little for Congress to do. Because the people voted.
How Biden Won: Six Hard Truths
How did Joe Biden win the presidential election? And what lessons does his victory hold for how he should govern? Early attempts to interpret the results of the election were hampered by the slowness of the counting—the major news outlets didn’t even call the presidential race until the Saturday after the election—and by other 2020 idiosyncrasies.
Teaching Our Merciless Racial Politics to the Next Generation
The quality of mercy is not strained. It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven Upon the place beneath. It is twice blessed: It blesseth him that gives and him that takes. —William Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice When did we become so merciless? I’m not talking about the 18-year-old kid, featured in a New York Times , who elected to torpedo a fellow student over a three-year-old video clip—though what he did was cruel.
Trump the Fly-Catcher
In a few days it will all be over—or it won’t. And while it seems like Donald Trump is on his farewell tour, threatening to disappear or leave the country, the polls show things are still not yet decided. It has been an election cycle filled with rage, anger, and tears. As the coronavirus rages, and the president claims “we’ve turned the corner” on the pandemic, he’s also told people in Iowa and Minnesota he’ll never be back their way again—if he doesn’t carry their states in the coming election.
Voter Suppression and Civic Vice
Ride or die. Support The Bulwark. Join Now Though too many Americans cannot define a republic, even while saluting “the flag for which it stands,” much continues to be written about Benjamin Franklin’s ominous warning when he was asked about the results of the Constitutional Convention: “A republic . . . if you can keep it.” From republican Rome onward, republics throughout history have insisted on civic virtue as necessary for stability.
You're Fired? - The Bulwark
The presidential polling in the last fortnight of the 2020 campaign has fallen into two buckets. In one bucket is the majority of polls, which show Joe Biden ahead by somewhere between +8 and +11 nationally, which would give Donald Trump no clear path to victory. A a smaller bucket of polls put Biden’s lead is in the +3 to +5 percent range—which opens the door for the possibility of Trump getting to 270 votes in the Electoral College.
Democrats Have Five Tipping Points
The building blocks, in terms of events intersecting with polling trends, are in place for the Biden-Harris ticket to decisively defeat the Trump-Pence ticket, both in the popular vote and in the Electoral College. Polling data has consistently favored Biden over Trump since the first theoretical matchup polls were taken.
Takeaways From New York State’s June 23 Democratic Primaries - NY State Government: Week in Review | JD Supra
The final results from the June 23 primaries are just being certified this week by the New York City Board of Elections, over a month after the primary was held. There are three takeaways from these electoral results. 1. Progressives are ascending, but not ascendant, in New York State’s Democratic primaries.
The Odds Have Caught Up with Trump
Donald Trump has turned himself into the political equivalent of Steve McQueen’s Cincinnati Kid. Not unlike Trump, McQueen’s character was a gambler of rare luck, pluck and talent trying to take on and defeat the elite national gambling establishment. But after many mistakes, McQueen loses it all in the big final hand. And then, in the movie’s dark coda, McQueen even loses to a kid in a street game of craps. Which is a lot like what the Trump campaign looks like right now.
Elder Abuse at the White House
What did we just see? And who thought this would be a good idea? Donald Trump is sinking in the polls, failing spectacularly at the worst crisis of his presidency, dogged by recurring scandal, betrayed by his closest aides and family members. And amazingly, in the midst of this, someone suggested he give this press conference. Summaries do not suffice.
Trump Is Gambling for His Political Future with American Lives
President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is now running headlong into a silent majority of opposition. This has become apparent not just in a handful of polls, but in the full trend line of polling data that has emerged since early April. And now, as spring prepares to become summer, Trump and his red-state gubernatorial allies are about to take a huge gamble.
The Coming Populist Libertarian Rebellion
And so on the umpteenth day of the Great Lockdown, the masses finally rose up. Or something: For miles, thousands of drivers clogged the streets to demand Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) ease restrictions and allow them to go back to work. They drowned downtown Lansing, Mich., in an cacophony of honking. They blared patriotic songs from car radios, waving all sorts of flags from the windows—President Trump flags, American flags and the occasional Confederate flag.
Biden Is Winning the Democrats' Iron Triangle
The iron triangle that has long driven the outcomes of Democratic primaries, especially presidential primaries, re-appeared in South Carolina and re-asserted its dominance on Super Tuesday. This iron triangle is encased in Geritol and does not use either Snapchat or Twitter very much. What is the iron triangle? Simply put, a majority of Democratic primary voters fall within a demographic pyramid.
Beware of the Polls
As the Democratic race shifts into high gear and the fallout from the impeachment trial settles in I have a respectful and heartfelt cautionary admonition about polling data: Caveat emptor. Let’s begin with Iowa. Not one poll before the Iowa caucuses accurately captured what was happening. Most of the closing polling data showed Bernie Sanders starting to creep towards 30 percent, with Joe Biden closely behind in the low 20s and Pete Buttigieg somewhere between 15 percent and just under 20 percent.
Where Does Trump Really Stand with Voters, One Year Out?
Today’s polling data can’t tell us exactly what to expect on Election Day in 2020. Events are moving too quickly and on too many fronts—impeachment, the economy, and foreign policy, with potential blockbuster court cases looming on hot-button issues relating to health care, immigration, and perhaps even abortion—for us to have a clear sense of where the electorate will be a year from now.
Just say no to instant runoffs: Ranked choice voting and unintended consequences
In November, I hope New York City voters turn down ranked-choice voting, as put forward by the Charter Revision Commission. RCV asks voters to rank their candidate preferences in order rather than selecting one candidate. It might sound compelling at first, but this largely untested method for elections will likely trigger the law of unintended consequences.
No Man Is an Island (But Trump Is Getting Kind of Lonely)
The most recent polling data shows that Trump’s August slide is fast becoming a September swoon. Worst of all from Trump’s perspective is that the polling data with the bleakest news comes from the more reliable polling firms. This data suggests that pundits ought be focusing not on Trump’s approval ratings but upon Trump’s disapproval numbers and the trend line underneath those numbers .
Why New York probably won't move its presidential primary to February
A case can be made that Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and the leaders of the State Legislature were right to have chosen April 28 as the day to hold New York’s 2020 presidential primary. The state could be pivotal in anchoring a mid-Atlantic colossus of delegates from Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island. New York rarely has held the key presidential primary in either party.
New Polls Show That Trump Should Be Afraid. Very Very Afraid.
Political pundits ought to hold themselves to the standard of revisiting their predictions and with a coldly objective eye. Having made two rather bold projections in these pages recently, it’s my turn to do so. In July I argued that Donald Trump’s strategy race baiting against the so-called “Squad” of four minority female members of Congress would not go well for him.
Could This Be the Moment Trump Loses America?
President Trump is about to learn the Lincoln meant when he said, “I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me.” His response to the tragic events in El Paso and Dayton could well define his presidency. I have come to see Meet the Press with Chuck Todd as the closest thing we have today to the role Johnny Carson’s monologues served in my youth.
Opinion: Lessons from Queens DA race
The dead heat between Tiffany Cabán and Melinda Katz in the Democratic primary for Queens district attorney — now amid a full manual recount — has befuddled many political pundits. Still, much can be gleaned from this veritable kaleidoscope of Queens politics. If Cabán ultimately wins the race, conventional wisdom will trumpet that as another example of the supposed ascendancy of progressive Democrats, especially since Cabán’s momentum was turbocharged by the endorsement of Rep.
Opinion: Impeachment is not the only way
The framing of the public debate among House Democrats suggests that only craven political considerations would block an immediate move to impeach President Donald Trump. But there is a more principled rationale for not leaping to impeachment.
Ocasio-Cortez's opportunity, and one big risk: Will she build bridges to black Democrats or burn them?
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y, on the House floor at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. (Carolyn Kaster / AP) The jury is still out on whether Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be a rising or a shooting star in the political firmament. New York has a tradition of producing members of the House who are meteors. Some flame out by flying too close to the sun. On this list are Vito Marcantonio, Adam Clayton Powell, Bella Abzug and Anthony Weiner.
NY Democrats are taking control. Now what?
New York Democrats now hold solid majorities in both the State Senate and the Assembly. They have won at least 38 Senate seats, including all five based in Nassau County and one from Suffolk, a gain of seven seats statewide, with two races to be determined (Republicans are narrowly ahead in one and behind in the other). At best, Republicans will have 24 seats in the next legislative session.
Petro politics | CSNY
When President Donald Trump’s administration announced a plan last month to open most of the U.S. continental shelf for petroleum exploration and drilling, Albany fired off a barrage of rhetorical salvos. “President Trump's move to allow new offshore oil and gas drilling represents yet another federal assault on our environment and our future,” tweeted Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who instead is pursuing an ambitious plan to produce 2.4 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030.
Opinion: Laura Curran’s challenge in Nassau
The path forward for Nassau County Executive-elect Laura Curran is clear-cut but steep as she readies for her inauguration next week. It’s clear-cut in that her pledge to weed out corruption and professionalize the delivery of services must be honored. It’s steep in that she will have to manage the challenges that face reformers, namely maintain public support after the din of the campaign subsides and governing begins.
Opinion: Suburban voters send Trump a message
Democrat Doug Jones’ victory over Republican Roy Moore, in Alabama’s U.S. Senate race on Tuesday, is a classic example of a “pullback election.” I coined that term in 2009 to explain to my class at the State University at Albany how Republican Chris Christie beat then-incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey. Momentum usually determines electoral winners. However, there are infrequent elections in which the voters pull back from the front-runner and change the outcome.
Building blocs: The groups that will determine the future of New York’s elections
Now that last Tuesday’s election returns have been tabulated, what are the enduring electoral lessons? Let’s explore that question by analyzing the four major contests in New York. First, in New York City, the fulcrum point in the electorate now lies with Latino and Asian voters.
Are the politics of climate change finally reaching a turning point?
When Hurricane Harvey swept through South Texas last month, it inundated Houston and the surrounding coastline, displaced thousands, flattened homes and killed scores of residents. President Donald Trump tweeted about the “HISTORIC rainfall in Houston” and the “unprecedented” flooding brought by Harvey, which set a continental U.S. record with more than 51 inches of rain.
Opinion: Pitfalls facing de Blasio in a new term
Bill de Blasio appears poised to easily beat back a primary challenge next week and win re-election in November as New York City’s mayor. But if he is not careful, a second term could be plagued by significant political problems: The ghosts of the mayoral quagmire from Robert Wagner’s third term and the strife of John Lindsay’s second term hover as omens. I am not suggesting that the Republican challenge expected by Assemb. Nicole Malliotakis of Staten Island is a waste of time.
The Brooklyn DA race and the weight of Ken Thompson's legacy
The funeral for Brooklyn District Attorney Kenneth Thompson, at the Christian Cultural Center. (Office of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo) The most intriguing and consequential primary in New York City this year will be the Democratic race for district attorney in Brooklyn.
Class Warfare: Higher education is about to become the next political battlefield
Hillary Clinton joins Gov. Andrew Cuomo as he signs his Excelsior Scholarship program into law. (Darren McGee / Office of the Governor) For decades, both nationally and here in New York, elected officials focused on higher education policies when they were thinking about their legacies, from former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s Higher Education Act to a grant program championed by U.S. Sen. Claiborne Pell.
Now is not the time for Democrats to bail on Nancy Pelosi
U.S. Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City) has boldly called for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) to step down as House minority leader, tweeting "It's time for Nancy Pelosi to go." Rice was quoted in the New York Times on the GOP playbook of attacking Pelosi, "Is it fair? No. Are the attacks accurate? No. But guess what? They work. They're winning and we're losing." On MSNBC's Morning Joe, Rice went on to say, "Nancy Pelosi was a great speaker.
Upcoming special elections will reveal important trends for 2018, 2020
Special elections and elections in Western democracies offer lessons on the underlying dynamics in future general elections here in the United States. Consider, the surprise special election victories of Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown in January of 2010 for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat and former congresswoman-turned-Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul in the May 2011 election for one of the state's most conservative House districts in Western New York.
Opinion: Democratic unity is Schumer's task
Chuck Schumer was dealt a weak hand by the 2016 elections. He is the Senate minority leader, not the majority leader, as most thought might happen last fall. And now, he faces several obstacles in a high-stakes game of political pinochle. After Donald Trump’s inauguration, Democrats were distraught and the media dismissed their prospects.
NY Slant
Yuh-Line Niou, the Democratic candidate for the 65th Assembly District. There are several enduring factors from Tuesday’s primary returns that will have an outsized impact going forward on the politics and governance in New York state. The first factor worth measuring is the impact of the primaries on the political leverage of state Sen. Jeff Klein, who leads the Independent Democratic Conference.
Bruce Gyory: Donald Trump’s yuge women problem
Two things are certain about the hiring of pollster Kellyanne Conway as Donald Trump’s new campaign manager. The first is that Trump finally has a skilled professional to direct his messaging portfolio.
Trump poll numbers reflect ignorance of supporters’ priorities
Donald Trump's presidency has fallen into a precarious retreat precisely because he has been ignoring two iron rules of presidential success. The first rule is that presidents place their re-elections in peril when they govern based upon why they wanted voters support, rather than why voters actually elected them in the first place.
NY Slant
Every election cycle, the most likely thing about likely voter polling is inaccuracy. The accuracy problems of the likely voter surveys did not begin this year with New York. They began in Iowa, where none of the public-polling firms accurately projected both parties’ caucus results, and reached their zenith in the Michigan Democratic primary, where pollsters projected double-digit Hillary Clinton leads, but Bernie Sanders ultimately won a tight contest.
NY Slant
The special election to succeed Sheldon Silver in the Assembly has gotten too little attention, given it is likely to tell us a great deal about the rising influence of Asian voters. The Democrats selected Alice Cancel, a Puerto Rican district leader, a nomination usually tantamount to a landslide victory in this district. Meanwhile, the Working Families Party has nominated Yuh-Line Niou, a vibrant political activist with strong roots in the Asian community.
NY Slant
Political scandals have a tendency to turn special elections in New York state into significant political turning points. The vacancy that Dean Skelos’ corruption conviction created in Nassau County’s 9th district state Senate seat has spawned another of these talisman special elections in 2016. The outcome will pivot less on the mechanics and logistics of campaign techniques than on which prospective candidate crafts a compelling narrative.
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