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Articles by Christabel Cooper
‘Who is Labour for?’
The most urgent task for whoever leads the Labour party is to address the challenge of Labour’s splintering vote. Last week’s local elections showed Labour losing support across the nations of Britain and across almost every type of English constituency — from post-industrial towns to diverse inner cities. It lost votes both to parties on its left and to parties on its right.
The Fracturing of the Labour coalition
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The Politics of Abundance: Can Labour Count on a ‘Pro‐Growth Coalition’?
Conflicts of Interest The author declares no conflicts of interest. References 1 and , “Grey Power: Towards a Political Economy of Older Voters in the UK,” Political Quarterly 90, no. 4 (2019): 743–756. 2, “What Do the Public Actually Think About Economic Growth, Technological Change and ‘abundance’?” 2025, Substack, https://substack.com/inbox/post/174164536.
'Tactical voting helped Labour to win, but it can't rely on it for victory in 2029'
Tactical voting played a crucial role in the 2024 general election, but with politics becoming even more volatile, it may be much harder for political parties to make it work next time. At the last election, Labour’s huge parliamentary majority was balanced on the back of a very modest vote share, in part because of substantial anti-Conservative tactical voting.
If fewer 'White British' means decline, why is London successful?
In the last few weeks, several high-profile commentators have expressed apocalyptic concerns about the fall in the percentage of “White British” people in the UK. In the Daily Telegraph, Professor Matt Goodwin claimed “the white British will become a minority group in the UK by the year 2063”. Conservative MP Neil O’Brien wrote (also in the Telegraph) that “Britain is heading for utter oblivion”, in part because of high migration and consequent rapid demographic change.
Labour Together's election review: 'Labour can only rebuild trust in politics through realistic ambition'
The introduction of Labour Together’s review into the general election contains the memorable phrase: “This Labour government has been cautiously hired, on a trial basis, liable to prompt dismissal if it deviates even slightly from its focus on voters’ priorities.” This is startling, given that Labour has just achieved the second-highest majority of any government since the Second World War and sent the Conservatives crashing to their worst-ever defeat.
Local elections: 'The split vote is more damaging than left splits'
Local elections are drawn-out affairs. Unlike in a general election where the result is known by the morning, the outcomes of some of most intensely studied contests will not be known until Saturday afternoon. This means that the analysis can shift as the results come in. There will be opportunities for the Conservatives to switch up the narrative, particularly having hung on in Tees Valley and especially if they also hold the West Midlands mayoralty.
Labour's Electoral Strategy
Editor’s note: The Liberal Patriot is pleased to present a new series of articles on the 2024 UK General Election from our friends at Labour Together—a London-based think tank closely connected to Keir Starmer’s leadership election and subsequent policy agenda. The three pieces will focus on Labour’s electoral strategy, its industrial policy, and its views on Britain’s role in the world.
'Mid Beds and Tamworth show Labour can win the seats needed to take power' - LabourList
Thirteen weeks ago, another set of by-elections gave a mixed bag of results that some commentators seized on as evidence that the Tories still had a significant chance of winning the next election. The narrow win in Uxbridge and South Ruislip gave the government not only hope, but gifted them an entirely new strategy based on claiming to stick up for motorists.
'Young men are turning to the right. Labour must deliver on their needs' - LabourList
Across the developed world, young men are turning rightwards. A troubling survey of young Poles aged 18 to 21 has found that a third of them are planning to vote for the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) in the upcoming parliamentary elections. But the poll also uncovered an enormous gender divide. Whereas 46% of the young men surveyed intended to vote for Confederation, only 16% of young women planned to do the same.
'Uxbridge was an aberration - our Selby win points to potential Tory wipeout' - LabourList
Last Thursday’s by-election in Selby and Ainsty, where Labour overturned a majority of over 20,000, was an utterly devastating defeat for the Conservatives, following the loss of Somerton and Froome to the Liberal Democrats earlier in the night. Rishi Sunak’s response was to dash down the motorway to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which the Tories unexpectedly held onto.
'Labour should worry more about polls narrowing than polls being wrong'
In January of this year, Labour’s average lead over the Conservatives stood at 22 points, the highest level since the end of the Truss debacle. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak looked out of his depth and out of control. But following the successful negotiation of the Windsor framework, Sunak’s premiership stabilised and Labour’s lead began to fall. Feverish speculation that the result of the next general election might not be a forgone conclusion started to take hold among the right-wing commentariat.
May's local elections and London Mayor 2024
The contest to become the Conservative candidate for London Mayor is underway, with minister for London Paul Scully, London Assembly members Andrew Boff and Susan Hall and others having thrown their hats into the ring. Whoever secures the nomination in July will be hoping to exploit Sadiq Khan’s controversial plan to further expand of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) and expect the change in the voting system from Supplementary Vote to to First Past the Post (FPTP) to help them.
Christabel Cooper: It might be small advantage, but Voter ID could help Tories in London
In-person voter fraud is not a big problem in mainland UK. It is not even a small problem. It is a miniscule one. At the last general election, only 164 cases of alleged electoral fraud were investigated by the police, resulting in just one conviction – that of a person who grabbed a ballot box to stop others voting. For context, more than 47 million votes were cast overall.
Labour’s pitch to these two key voter groups will be crucial to election victory – LabourList
It has been a favourable few weeks for Rishi Sunak. He’s even managed to get through a Budget without sending the gilt market into meltdown. It’s been enough that some commentators have started whispering that the Conservatives might be able to win the next general election after all. The Tory strategy to achieve this is now clear.
Christabel Cooper: Has London reached 'peak Labour'?
The last three sets of local elections in London have seen Labour forging ahead in the capital despite losing the last four general elections, and London is now routinely described as a “Labour city”. As the 5 May borough votes approach, has London reached “peak Labour” or is there potential for the party to make further gains? Brexit and The Great Realignment The conventional explanation for Labour’s increasing dominance in London is the “Great Realignment” theory of British politics.
The Politics of the Pandemic: How Covid Finally Caught up with Boris Johnson
Over the last two years, the Covid pandemic has affected the lives of every single British person. Over 150,000 have died from Covid, the initial lockdown caused the worst recession since the Great Depression and our personal freedoms were restricted to an unimaginable degree.
The Rise and Fall of Johnsonism
Johnsonism has been a hard target for Labour to directly attack, but there are now signs that it is struggling. Labour has a chance to present a vision of the Britain where things aren’t “just about OK” What is Johnsonism? Following Rishi Sunak’s Budget, plenty of commentators felt they knew. The Chancellor had decided to use an unexpected revenue windfall, not to reverse tax increases or pay down debt, but to increase government spending across a range of departments.
Christabel Cooper: Poorer Londoners face a hard winter in a city short on powers to help them
The peculiar characteristics of the capital's economy leave its least well off at the mercy of national policies that don't meet the city's particular needs On 6 October the government officially ended the £20 weekly uplift to Universal Credit it had introduced at the beginning of the Covid pandemic, arguing that it had been a temporary measure to support households in the depths of the crisis that is not longer necessary with the economy returning to a more normal state and in view of the...
Christabel Cooper: Misogyny in the Metropolitan Police has not been challenged and Cressida Dick should resign
Only around 75 people in the UK are serving a whole life prison sentence. Last week, the murderer of Sarah Everard became one of them. The severity of the punishment was in part due to Wayne Couzens exploiting his position as a police officer in order to carry out his horrific attack. In his sentencing remarks, Lord Justice Fulford stated: “In my judgment the police are in a unique position, which is essentially different from any other public servants.
Why Labour shouldn't be afraid of the Culture War
Shortly after Jeremy Corbyn was elected Labour leader in 2015, David Cameron declared “Twitter is not Britain”. It was meant as an admonishment to those who thought that the widespread support for Corbyn on social media channels was representative of wider public opinion. These days it could equally be directed at a right-wing commentariat which believes its own preoccupations with cultural symbols are representative of the general conversation in Britain.
Christabel Cooper: London and many Londoners will bounce back from Covid, but the poorest will struggle most
Well-paid homeworkers will help to re-float the capital's economy but not everyone will have accumulated spending cash The Covid pandemic has caused the worst global recession since the 1930s. In the UK, millions of people have seen their incomes fall, either because they accessed the furlough scheme (which only paid part of their wages) or because they have lost their jobs altogether.
The “culture wars” affect how people vote—but not in the way you might think - Prospect Magazine
The majority of the British public supports the Black Lives Matter movement. Photo: John B Hewitt / Alamy Stock Photo We all know the story by now. The “culture wars” used to only be fought in America. In Britain, party support was strongly linked to views on an economic left-right axis; if you believed in extensive government intervention and redistribution then you voted Labour, if you believed in a small state and leaving markets to their own devices, you voted Conservative.
Christabel Cooper: How can the Conservatives win the London mayoralty again?
The result of the London mayoral election was never in doubt, although Sadiq Khan’s victory was less emphatic than many had expected. Turnout was down on the 2016 election (falling from 46 per cent to 42 per cent) whereas in other mayoral elections across the country it increased: Khan’s narrower-than-expected margin of victory may have partly been down to Labour supporters assuming that their presence was not needed at the polls in order for Khan to win.
Book review: The London Problem by Jack Brown
An array of hostile myths about the capital are succinctly addressed in this slim volume, which also points to how the capital's economic dominance of the UK might be reduced As Jack Brown notes in his concise yet hugely informative book exploring attitudes towards the capital and its dominance of the British political, economic and cultural landscape, the idea that London is a problem is not new.
Christabel Cooper: 'Levelling up' requires restoring local government funding, including in the capital
Deprivation between regions and within cities won't be reduced by further cuts to council budgets Britain is more geographically unequal than any other rich country, as the Covid pandemic has highlighted. Covid is a disease that thrives on deprivation and infection rates have often remained stubbornly high in poorer areas.
‘Get Brexit Done’: The New Political Divides of England and Wales at the 2019 Election
Abstract This article analyses the successful Conservative election campaign of 2019 and how it took advantage of a fractured political and economic landscape. It reviews the unique circumstances around the 2019 election and the ‘surprising death’ of a no‐deal Brexit. We then analyse the divergent political communication strategies in the 2017 and 2019 Conservative campaigns showing how the latter was much more coherent and politically unorthodox.
Labour must hold the government to account for gambling with lives and jobs – LabourList
After months of closure, pubs and restaurants opened their doors on July 4th following the earlier reopening of non-essential shops. Although welcomed by most Tory backbenchers, these reopenings are still an enormous gamble for the government as Britain’s rate of Covid infection remains higher than nearly all other European countries. While data from the EU shows that most countries have only seen localised outbreaks of Covid after easing lockdowns, the story from America is completely different.
Progressive Voices - Progress Online
It’s time for Labour to build a new political consensus with the British people By Emily Wallace | May 6, 2020 What is becoming clear is that when this health crisis is finally over, the trail of economic destruction and social deprivation it leaves behind will continue to rip through our communities and impact lives for many years to come.
Constructive criticism is the right approach to the coronavirus crisis
To judge by social media, the government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has been self-evidently disastrous. But it has never been truer that “Twitter is not Britain”. The Tories stand at over 50% in the polls— according to an opinion poll last weekend, 57% approve of the government’s response. Even amongst Labour supporters, there is a significant minority who believe the government is doing a good job.
Labour Lost for Failing to back Remain, Not because it Failed to Back Brexit – Byline Times
The Labour Party must work out how to scrutinise the Government on Brexit and outbid the Tories on the NHS, public services and aspiration to keep its current voters and win back its heartlands. Following a heavy defeat, it is tempting to look for a simple explanation that can be easily fixed. The two favourites in Labour circles are that the party had the wrong leader and that backing a second Brexit referendum was the wrong choice. The reality is far more complicated.
WATCH: Interview with Labour's Matt Kerr in Glasgow South West
Earlier this month, LabourList editor Sienna Rodgers visited Glasgow South West to “doorchap” and interview Labour candidate Matt Kerr. In the interview, the former postie talks about the reaction to Labour’s plan to compensate the so-called WASPI women, how his union – the CWU – has influenced the party’s manifesto and why he’s keen to dispel the idea that the SNP are “somehow a left-wing party”. Read the full interview here.
Labour’s Brexit choice – for the many or the few? - LabourList
The votes of Labour MPs will be crucial in determining whether Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal gets through parliament. Official Labour policy is to support a referendum but is silent on whether the party would support a Remain option; the leadership’s efforts during conference to stop Labour moving to fully support Remain suggests that they genuinely believe this ambiguity is a vote-winning strategy.
Polling 'People vs Parliament': What a new survey says about our constitutional mess
Monday, 9 September 2019 8:29 AM By Christabel Cooper & Christina Pagel The British constitution is in trouble. For three years our uncodified constitution has struggled under the weight of having two separate mandates – the traditional one from electing representatives to parliament and the other the instruction to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum.
Why any successful Labour Remain campaign needs to get across a complex message
Date: 19/08/2019Author: Martin Plaut Last summer, just before Theresa May unveiled her doomed Chequers agreement, we carried out a piece of research on what people thought were the main challenges for the UK over the next five years.
A country of purists: the polling which lays bare the death of any compromise on Brexit
Friday, 14 June 2019 8:11 AM By Christina Pagel and Christabel Cooper The recent European elections were a disaster for both main parties, with voters defecting en masse to the Brexit party or clear Remain parties. The official position of both Labour and the Conservatives is that they will leave the EU with a negotiated deal of some sort, which will be some variation of the Withdrawal Agreement and the existing political declaration.
Polling analysis: The full extent of Britain's division brutally revealed
Monday, 15 April 2019 8:16 AM By Christina Pagel, Christabel Cooper & Uta Staiger In September last year, we used new survey research to show that Remain and Leave voters are not homogenous groups and instead fall on a Brexit spectrum from hard Remain to hard Leave. People can be grouped into different voter types, based on what they believed to be the top priorities for the UK.
Change needs young people
This article is part of a series of articles written by candidates for the Progress strategy board elections. The publishing of this article is not an endorsement of the candidate.
New word disorder – the Progress daily email | Progress, centre-left politics
This is originally from the Progress Daily Email. If you like what you see and would like to sign up to receive it, click here. Does anyone know why Arron Banks might be upset? He seems a little aggrieved at some of the content in the latest Progress magazine, which criticises Vladimir Putin’s regime and the increasing tendency towards ‘strong man’ international leaders.
Remainers are a greater threat to the Labour vote than Leavers
This article is part of a series of articles written by candidates for the Progress strategy board elections. The publishing of this article is not an endorsement of the candidate.
People's Vote analysis: 40% of the public up for grabs by either side
Thursday, 25 October 2018 9:03 AM By Christina Pagel and Christabel Cooper We treat Leavers and Remainers like two immoveable camps, but the truth is that voters are on a Brexit spectrum. At least 40% of the population fit neither the caricature of the Ukip Brexiter nor the 'citizen of nowhere' europhile. This 40% are really the only people who might change their mind on Brexit in any great number.
Examining the viability of a new centre left party – the numbers just don’t add up - UK in a changing Europe
While there have been endless discussions on what Leave voters want from Brexit, the 48% who voted Remain have often been treated as a single united bloc. Rumours of a new centre-left ‘Remain’ party continue to circulate, most recently in a Nick Robinson interview with Tony Blair. Since there is little prospect of a new party being established and ready for a General Election before March 2019, a party platform built around a Remain / Leave axis seems entirely pointless.
The Last Word: Confusion reigns
Acting against tyranny is easier said than done, writes Robert Philpot Perhaps the most surprising thing about the outrage directed this week at Donald Trump’s repulsive policy of separating immigrant children from their families is that anyone was shocked that the president might adopt such an approach.
A new route to electoral success?
The local elections indicate that Labour is pursuing a different electoral strategy post-2017, argues Conor Pope Ed Miliband’s roadmap to Downing Street was well-documented, and now reads as a series of missed turnings. Target seat one, north Warwickshire. Lost. Two, Thurrock. Lost. Three, Hendon. Lost. Down the list, at number 37, is the one that sticks in the mind for so many activists; that would have meant Labour had won: Nuneaton. Lost.
Labour lessons from Windrush
The frontbench’s pro-immigrant, anti-immigration policy is failing the country, the economy and ethnic minorities, writes Christabel Cooper In June 1948, the Empire Windrush docked at Tilbury, near London – one of the first ships to carry large numbers of immigrants from the Caribbean. They came to a place regarded by many as the ‘mother country’ in response to the call from the British government to help fill shortages in the labour market after the devastation of the second world war.
Upstanding hooligans: how a World Cup saved English football
From riots to Gazza's tears, the 1980s of English football. Photo: Prospect composite This week, the Labour Party called on the government to back safe standing in football stadiums. Giving power back to the clubs and local authorities, it is a far-cry from the political interventions of the 1980s when, following decades of negligence and hundreds of terrace deaths, the clubs were belatedly forced into action.
Guilty until proven immigrant
We must change the conversation on immigration, argues Christabel Cooper When Amber Rudd resigned as Home Secretary on Sunday night it seemed – for a moment – that ‘normal’ politics had resumed. That is, the kind of politics where a major national scandal, together with weeks of forensic harrying by well-informed and persistent opposition members of parliament had forced a senior cabinet minister to step down.
Review: Hired: Six Months Undercover in Low-Wage Britain
James Bloodworth spent six months working in low-wage, low-status jobs in the United Kingdom and tried to get by on the meagre proceeds. The result is a compelling and sometimes shocking account of working in the some of the worst jobs in Britain, writes Christabel Cooper. He first heads to Rugeley in Staffordshire, where he reports there was considerable excitement when Amazon first chose the town as the site for a new ‘fulfilment centre’.
Diversity challenge
Labour’s future success is dependent on its diversity, writes Christabel Cooper Earlier this month, Professor Tim Bale published findings showing that members of political parties are considerably whiter and more middle class than the population in general. Disappointingly, Labour is no exception. It is ironic that with eight per cent of members of parliament now coming from a minority ethnic background, the House of Commons contains a greater proportion of BAME people than any political party.
Taming the savageness of our politics
The end result of a discourse dominated by online abuse is an environment where political opponents are no longer seen as normal human beings, warns Progress strategy board member Christabel Cooper Britain has thankfully had a relatively short record of violence directed against at political figures. The last sitting member of parliament to be assassinated before the tragic murder of Jo Cox, was Ian Gow, killed by an IRA car bomb in 1990.
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