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Articles by David Nir
Morning Digest: Democrats sweep nationwide in massive rebuke to Trump
Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa and Sen.-elect James Talarico In the end, “tsunami” was an understatement. On an epic election night that served as a massive rebuke to Donald Trump and the Republican Party, voters delivered victories to Democrats that surpassed even the wildest predictions. Democrats easily took back the House, four years after narrowly los…
The Downballot's election night 2026 open thread
If you’d like to chat about tonight’s election results, this is the place to do it! To help you follow along, you can also check out our poll closing times map and our live tracker of all the key contests. We also hope you join us and our friends at Strength In Numbers for our election night livestream starting at 6:45 PM ET and going until the wee hours.…
How to join The Downballot’s Discord server to follow election night
One of the best perks we offer to paid subscribers is the opportunity to join The Downballot’s private Discord server—the nerdiest and friendliest place to discuss elections anywhere on the internet. If you’re not familiar with Discord, think of it like a group of chatrooms, with different rooms (or “channels”) for different topics: downballot elections, general political chatter, international news, sports, and more.
Morning Digest: Join us for our election night livestream!
Election Day is finally here, and The Downballot is covering everything you need to know! Join us and our friends at Strength In Numbers for our election night livestream starting at 6:45 PM ET and going until the wee hours. You can watch on Substack Live or on YouTube. Click below to set a calendar reminder, which includes a link to watch our stream: Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | Yahoo Our livestream is free to all and will be presented without commercial interruptions.
Morning Digest: The battlefield makes one last push into unimaginable turf
Louisiana Democrat Jamie Davis, who is running for Senate (credit: Jamie Davis Facebook) In the waning days of the 2026 midterms, the electoral battleground has pushed into once unimaginable territory as Republicans find themselves forced to defend seemingly impregnable bastions. Louisiana’s Senate race offers one of the most striking e…
Mark your calendars for The Downballot/Strength In Numbers election night livestream!
The Downballot and Strength In Numbers are delighted to invite you to join us for our live coverage of the midterm election results on Tuesday night! Starting at 6:45 PM ET—and going as late as we possibly can—analysts from both sites, along with several of our smartest colleagues, will keep you informed about races for Senate, House, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state legislatures, and state supreme courts, plus ballot measures and much, much more.
Morning Digest: As Iowa turns against Trump, Democrats look for gains at every level
Iowa state Auditor Rob Sand (D), the frontrunner in the race for governor (credit: Rob Sand Facebook) With state Auditor Rob Sand favored to win Iowa’s governorship and state Rep. Josh Turek locked in a close race for the state’s open seat in the Senate, Democrats are trying to flip a host of other offices in a one-time swing state that fi…
Morning Digest: Democrats take aim at Nebraska seat they've won just once in nine decades
Chris Backemeyer, Democratic candidate for Nebraska’s 1st District. (Credit: Chris Backemeyer ad) As Democrats seek to put deep-red House seats in play across the country, a top super PAC just launched a last-minute sneak attack on one of Nebraska’s most implacably Republican districts. The House Majority PAC booked at least $1 million in …
Our hour-by-hour guide to election night 2026
Finally, Election Day is almost here! But with literally thousands of races on the docket, how will you make sense of election night? The supremely knowledgeable Jeff Singer, our managing editor, joins us for the last pre-election episode of The Downballot podcast to give us an hour-by-hour overview of the key contests to watch. Jeff highlights a host of races that will tell us what kind of night Democrats are having and whether they’re on track to take control of Congress.
Morning Digest: Why Minnesota Democrats face headwinds in their quest to reclaim state government
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Democratic nominee for Minnesota governor. (Credit: Amy Klobuchar Facebook) Control of Minnesota’s narrowly divided legislature is at stake on Tuesday as Republicans hope voter fatigue with the state’s Democratic leaders will blunt the impact of Donald Trump’s unpopularity. Each of the state’s 67 seats in …
The Downballot's 2026 poll closing times map, sponsored by EDF Action Votes
The Downballot is pleased to present the 2026 edition of our celebrated poll closing times map, sponsored by EDF Action Votes! A message from our sponsor, EDF Action Votes: EDF Action Votes is working to elect leaders who will protect our environment, defend clean air and clean water, and hold Big Polluters accountable.
Morning Digest: How Ramaswamy could sabotage the Ohio GOP all the way down the ballot
Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown campaigning with Barack Obama as they seek to lead Ohio Democrats to victory next week. (Credit: Amy Acton Facebook) Vivek Ramaswamy’s disastrous campaign for governor, along with Republican Sen. Jon Husted’s own struggles in his bid for a full term, have given Ohio Democrats reason to hope that they can break t…
Morning Digest: How Arizona Democrats can win a trifecta for the first time in 60 years
From left to right: Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, state Rep. Stephanie Simacek, U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, and state Senate candidate Amelia Gallitano. (Credit: Katie Hobbs campaign.) With Gov. Katie Hobbs and other Arizona Democrats leading in statewide races, their party aims to flip both legislative chambers and win full control of sta…
Morning Digest: Keisha Lance Bottoms seeks a boost from Georgia’s top Democrat, Jon Ossoff
Screenshot of an ad from Georgia Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, featuring Sen. Jon Ossoff’s endorsement of her bid for governor. With Jon Ossoff on track to rack up an impressive victory on Nov. 3, the freshman senator is starring in an ad to help his highest-profile ticket-mate—and other Democrats further down the ballot could reap bene…
Morning Digest: How a failed GOP gerrymander is putting a Missouri seat in play
Screenshot from a VoteVets ad attacking Missouri Rep. Ann Wagner (R) If you’re a reader of The Downballot, you’ll now need to subscribe to read the Morning Digest and the comments section, though we’re not putting up a paywall! You can sign up as a free subscriber, though of course, we’d be delighted if you’d support our work with a paid subscription. Either way, just click the button below: The Congressional Leadership Fund just made a late $650,000 ad buy to help Rep.
What the hell is Ramaswamy thinking?
Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -50:44 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. The most appalling ad of the midterms is also the most inexplicable. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard rip Vivek Ramaswamy for trying to weaponize his opponent’s painful experience of sexual assault as a child in a new campaign commercial.
Morning Digest: Ramaswamy stands by attack ad featuring opponent’s estranged mother
Ohio Republican Vivek Ramaswamy (credit: Vivek Ramaswamy Facebook) Ohio Republican Vivek Ramswamy was engulfed in a firestorm on Tuesday after an attack ad featuring his opponent’s estranged mother leaked from his campaign. The ad, which was first reported by the newsletter The Rooster and was revealed as part of an online poll, stars Donna Arthur, who identifies herself as Democrat Amy Acton’s mother.
Morning Digest: Florida GOP threatens criminal prosecution over campaign ad it dislikes
(Credit: Florida Democratic Party commercial) The Republican Party of Florida filed a lawsuit Friday seeking to stop Democrats from airing a commercial centered around a scandal that continues to cause problems for the GOP—and is even threatening criminal prosecution. “Hope Florida, an idea built on a promise to help Floridians in need,” says the narrator of the ad, which is paid for by the state Democratic Party and is targeted at Florida’s incumbent attorney general.
Take 23% off to celebrate The Downballot’s 23rd anniversary!
Twenty-three years is a long time in any human lifetime. On the internet, it’s practically an eternity. On this day in 2003, as a first-year law student, I fired up a brand-new blog that—little did I know—would change my life and touch many others. That site eventually became the one you’re reading right now: The Downballot. And to celebrate our 23rd anniversary, we’re offering a special sale of 23% off our normal subscription rate.
Morning Digest: Democrats just crushed Republicans in fundraising—and they're weathering the GOP's onslaught
Texas Democrat James Talarico (credit: James Talarico campaign site) Democratic candidates for the Senate and House smashed their Republican opponents in fundraising during the third quarter of the year, giving them the chance to neutralize the deluge of cash from GOP super PACs that’s flooding races from coast to coast.
The Downballot's 3Q 2026 Senate and House fundraising reports roundup
Texas Democrat James Talarico (right) was the top fundraiser among all candidates for Congress in the third quarter of 2026. (Credit: James Talarico Facebook) Quarterly fundraising reports for congressional candidates covering the period from July 1 to Sept. 30 were due at the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 15 by midnight ET. Below are our charts of fundraising data for every Democrat and Republican on the Nov.
Morning Digest: A toxic GOP nominee for governor has Democrats eyeing Boebert for defeat
Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) (credit: Lauren Boebert Facebook) If you’re a reader of The Downballot, you’ll now need to subscribe to read the Morning Digest and the comments section, though we’re not putting up a paywall! You can sign up as a free subscriber, though of course, we’d be delighted if you’d support our work with a paid subscription.
Democrats are a normal polling error away from 54+ Senate seats - or just 50
Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com. On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir show what could happen if the polls are underestimating either Democrats or Republicans ahead of the November elections. Given Democrats’ edge in most key Senate races today, we ask: How big would the miss need to be for Republicans to keep their majority? What about in the House? And how would these hypothetical misses compare to historical misses?
Morning Digest: Pennsylvania Republicans have pulled back to their last bastion—the state Senate
Democratic state Sen. James Malone (right), the surprise winner of a 2025 special election, campaigning with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (credit: James Malone Facebook) If you’re a reader of The Downballot, you’ll now need to subscribe to read the Morning Digest and the comments section, though we are not putting up a paywall! You can sign up as a free subscriber, though of course, we’d be delighted if you’d support our work with a paid subscription.
The top ballot measures of 2026
Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -58:31 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. Amid a years-long GOP assault on direct democracy, voters across the country have the chance to turn the tide next month. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, Hannah Ledford of the Fairness Project explains how her organization supports progressive ballot measures and highlights some of the year’s most important.
Morning Digest: Republicans are sweating all five Texas seats they gerrymandered
Democrat Leticia Gutierrez (credit: Leticia Gutierrez campaign site) If you’re a reader of The Downballot, you’ll now need to subscribe to read the Morning Digest and the comments section, though we are not putting up a paywall! You can sign up as a free subscriber, though of course, we’d be delighted if you’d support our work with a paid subscription.
Morning Digest: The South Dakota GOP wants to roll back Medicaid expansion—and direct democracy
South Dakota Attorney General Marty Jackley, whose ballot summary language regarding Medicaid has angered fellow Republicans. (Credit: Marty Jackley Facebook) South Dakota Republicans are promoting a ballot measure that would endanger Medicaid expansion in the state, as well as a second proposal that would make it difficult for voters to reverse any changes to the program.
Morning Digest: Democrats make late investment in race for Florida attorney general
Florida Attorney General James Uthmeir (R), at lectern (credit: James Uthmeir X account) The Democratic Attorneys General Association is sending $5 million to former state Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez’s campaign to unseat Republican James Uthmeier as attorney general of Florida, a former swing state where Democrats are eager to prove they can win again.
Morning Digest: Why Democrats think this is the year they can beat Kris Kobach—again
Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach (R) (credit: Kris Kobach campaign site) Democrat Chris Mann is getting some high-profile help from an unusual corner in his rematch against Republican Attorney General Kris Kobach: Kansas’ statewide police union. The Kansas State Lodge Fraternal Order of Police announced Tuesday that it was endorsing Mann, the first time since 2002 it’s supported a Democrat in the race to become the state’s top lawyer.
The case for and against the polls
Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com. On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir explain why polls could underestimate either the Democrats or the Republicans this November. You can make a good case either way. Plus, will Democrats win a majority of governors’ mansions for the first time since 2009? This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce.
Morning Digest: The House battleground has moved deep into Trump turf
Minnesota Democrat Jake Johnson (credit: Jake Johnson Facebook) Both parties are spending heavily in House districts that Donald Trump carried by double digits, broadening the battlefield to include turf that Democrats have not seriously contested in many years. The players on these expanded front lines include groups beyond the usual suspects, such as the DCCC and NRCC.
Join our private pre-election briefing for Founding Members!
Readers, an exciting announcement below from David and me… It’s our pleasure to invite you to a pre-election briefing exclusively for Founding Members of The Downballot and Strength In Numbers! The event will be hosted by David Nir and G. Elliott Morris. On Tuesday, Oct.
The Senate battlefield is exploding
Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -59:14 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. Republicans are giving up on races that would have once been unthinkable to abandon—and rushing to save candidates in states we can scarcely believe are competitive.
Morning Digest: New spending shows Senate battlefield expanding into the Deep South
Mississippi Democrat Scott Colom (third from left) (credit: Scott Colom campaign site) Two Southern states that haven’t elected Democrats to the Senate since the last century are suddenly drawing late spending as Democrats hope the political environment will allow them to pull off major upsets. In South Carolina, the Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $5 million to protect Republican Sen. Darline Graham, Axios reported Tuesday.
Morning Digest: The GOP is pouring millions into a Long Island race. Democrats seem unbothered.
New York Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) (at right) embraces a supporter (credit: Tom Suozzi Facebook) Rep. Tom Suozzi is facing an onslaught of GOP money, yet his fellow Democrats are behaving as though he has little to worry about. Newsday reported Friday that Republican groups have spent more than $11 million to help former Assemblyman Mike LiPetri win his rematch against Suozzi for New York’s 3rd District, a sum that may include future reservations.
Morning Digest: Republicans abandon North Carolina—and race to rescue Kansas
Michael Whatley, Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina. (Credit: Michael Whatley Facebook) Republicans are suddenly plowing money into a Senate race they never expected would be competitive while pulling back from contests that had once been among their top targets.
Why the GOP's spending advantage is nowhere near as big as it looks
Democrats across the country have been worried about getting swamped by a late flood of Republican money, but a new report shows they have less to fear than the raw dollar totals might indicate. That’s because even though Republicans have built up a massive spending advantage on the airwaves in key races, they aren’t getting anywhere near the bang for the buck that Democrats are.
Paul Krugman discusses the midterms with David Nir and Elliott Morris
There’s no political writer I’ve admired more—or who’s had a greater influence on my thinking—than Paul Krugman. It was therefore my immense pleasure to discuss the upcoming midterms with him on his weekly show, along with my frequent collaborator G. Elliott Morris of Strength In Numbers.
Paul Krugman discusses the midterms with David Nir and Elliott Morris
Trump news update 22 hours ago Not To Alarm You, But Trump’s Brain Is Melted The Bulwark - William Kristol, Andrew Egger, and Jim Swift • 22h And Hegseth’s neo-fascism is out in the open. Just how bad has Donald Trump’s leadership been for the Kennedy Center’s financial health?
Morning Digest: GOP billionaires flood Wisconsin with cash, but Democrats are leading
Rep. Tom Tiffany, Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor. (Credit: Tom Tiffany website) A trio of conservative billionaires is spending like wild to stop Wisconsin Democrats from winning complete control of state government, but the latest survey from the state’s top pollster shows Democrats hanging on to a narrow lead. New financial disclosures released Wednesday night showed Republican Tom Tiffany taking in over $26 million from July 1 through Sept. 23 for his campaign to succeed Gov.
Morning Digest: Why the GOP could flip a governor's race despite the building blue wave
Billboard for Christine Drazan, Republican nominee for Oregon governor. (Credit: Christine Drazan) A new poll finds that Oregon Republicans, despite an ugly national political climate, could end four decades of Democratic control of the governor’s office. That survey, conducted by the Oregon-based pollster DHM Research for Oregon Public Broadcasting, shows Republican challenger Christine Drazan leading Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek 47-46 in a race that has seen little polling.
Republicans are looking sooo rusty
Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -56:10 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. Here’s the downside to comfortably winning year after year: Your campaign skills get rusty in a hurry. As David Nir and guest-host Joe Sudbay discuss on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, that problem is now in full bloom for Republicans across the country who are suddenly facing competitive elections in states where Democrats have often been an afterthought.
Morning Digest: Voters in two states could soon choose to rewrite their constitutions
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt. (Credit: Kevin Stitt Facebook) Michigan voters will decide in November whether to hold a constitutional convention that would allow the state to revisit its governing document, while Republicans in Oklahoma are fighting over whether to even vote on the issue at all next spring. The two states are among 14 where this question is supposed to automatically appear on the ballot after a set number of years have elapsed.
Morning Digest: Conservatives want to erode the top obstacle to total GOP control in Montana
Flathead County District Court Judge Amy Eddy, candidate for the Montana Supreme Court. (Credit: Amy Eddy ad) Conservatives in Montana are trying to increase their power on the state Supreme Court, which has long been dominated by a moderate majority, on the same day voters will decide on a constitutional amendment that would keep the state’s judicial elections nonpartisan.
Morning Digest: Texas Democrats campaign for control of battleground county
Alisa Simmons, Democratic nominee for Tarrant County judge Texas Democrats are campaigning vigorously to end the GOP’s four-decade reign in populous Tarrant County, a major bellwether that could usher in other Democratic victories across the state. “We are sounding the alarm. Don’t let it happen,” County Judge Tim O’Hare, a Republican serving his first term as county leader, said in an address earlier this month to the conservative True Texas Project.
Morning Digest: The site of 2018's biggest shocker might soon draw renewed Democratic interest
Jena Nelson, Democratic nominee for Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District. (Credit: Jena Nelson Facebook) The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reportedly plans to direct “major funding” to help Democrat Jena Nelson defeat Republican Rep. Stephanie Bice in Oklahoma’s 5th conservative District, according to a Nelson staffer who spoke with The Oklahoman. National groups had not previously signaled that they consider the race competitive.
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: We've got the lowdown on all of California's Democrat vs. Democrat contests
Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang (right) is challenging Rep. Doris Matsui in an all-Democratic general election for California’s 7th District. (Credit: Mai Vang Facebook) Allies of Rep. Doris Matsui have launched new attacks against Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang ahead of the general election for California’s 7th District, one of five competitive congressional races in the state that will feature two Democrats on the November ballot.
Primary turnout forecasts a Dem blowout
Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -43:47 Audio playback is not supported on your browser. Please upgrade. Democrats have blown past Republicans in primary turnout this year, but does it mean anything for November? The answer is a very firm “yes,” as co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast.
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: New moves show House battlefield continuing to shift toward Democrats
Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet’s reelection campaign in Michigan isn’t looking as expensive as it once seemed it would be. (Credit: Kristen McDonald Rivet Facebook) New ad reservations, spending reports, and triage maneuvers show the House battlefield is continuing to move in the Democrats’ favor with six weeks to go until Election Day.
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: Vulnerable Republican pleads with Trump to dial back hardline immigration policies
(Credit: Maria Elvira Salazar ad) The Downballot will be taking off on Monday for Yom Kippur. Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar launched a new ad on Thursday distancing herself from Donald Trump, who easily carried her heavily Latino constituency in the southern Miami area two years ago.
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