Articles by David Zahn
What’s Next for Gilts and the United Kingdom?
WHAT ARE THE RISKS? All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Fixed income securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks, and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. International investments are subject to special risks, including currency fluctuations and social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in emerging markets.
Weathering the Storm: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation and the Investor’s Imperative
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believe that issuers that think critically about the environment in which they operate could outperform throughout the full market cycle compared with those who are slower to adapt. The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team has long been aware of the need to fight the effects of climate change and we know that it is crucial not to be complacent.
ECB Jumps On The Bandwagon To Start Hiking Rates
By David Zahn, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income The European Central Bank held its June meeting this past week, and while it didn’t raise interest rates this time, it signaled rate hikes would begin in July. David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, offers his take on the meeting, noting the central bank has turned more hawkish than many expected.
European Union Launches Social Bonds
By David Zahn, CFA, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income The coronavirus pandemic has created many challenges for individuals, businesses and governments around the world. In Europe, there's a new vehicle to help finance the economic recovery there - social bonds. David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, discusses this exciting new bond issuance, earmarked for funding employment initiatives.
Brexit Saga Meets Trade Roadblocks
By David Zahn, CFA, FRM, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income The United Kingdom officially left the European Union in January of this year, but issues remain in the Brexit saga, namely trade relations. David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, weighs in on the odds no deal will be reached by year-end-and the market implications. The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union (EU) more than four years ago, and the process has been long and complicated.
EU Delivers Comprehensive Fiscal Rescue Package
By David Zahn, CFA, FRM, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income The European Commission has unveiled a sweeping new €750 billion coronavirus fiscal rescue package, including the issuance of new bonds. David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, calls it groundbreaking. The European Union (EU) seems to have finally come together to deliver a comprehensive fiscal rescue package to help member states battle the devasting economic impacts of COVID-19.
European Fixed Income: Coming Out Of Crisis
By David Zahn, CFA, FRM, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income As European economies slowly start to come out of coronavirus lockdowns, it could be some time before growth returns to pre-crisis levels, according to David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income. He says the crisis has been another test for the European Union, as the coronavirus has affected some countries more so than others.
The Impact Of The ECB's Coronavirus Rescue Fund And BoE Rate Cut On European Bonds
By David Zahn, CFA, FRM, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income This week, both the European Central Bank and Bank of England took further measures to help contain the financial fallout from the coronavirus and alleviate pressure on strained public finances. David Zahn, Head of European Fixed Income, shares his views on what it means for European bonds. This week, we saw several major central banks announce monetary stimulus measures in the wake of coronavirus concerns.
U.K. Budget Ease Follows Coordinated BOE Rate Cut
By David Zahn, CFA, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Newly appointed UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak tore up the fiscal rulebook and unveiled a spend-heavy UK budget, announced just after the Bank of England delivered an emergency interest-rate cut.
Brexit, per la May la corsa a ostacoli è appena iniziata
Il cammino che il primo ministro britannico Theresa May dovrà affrontare per ottenere l’approvazione dell’accordo con l’Ue da parte del Parlamento sarà tutto in salita. Di conseguenza, per alcuni mesi ci aspettiamo incertezze e volatilità sui mercati finanziari britannico ed europei. Alcune frange del partito conservatore della May non sosterranno questo accordo perché prevede la permanenza...
ECB Meeting: Fresh Clarity, But Let’s Not Get Ahead of Ourselves
The European Central Bank’s June meeting has offered some long-hoped-for clarity on the future direction of monetary policy in the eurozone. However, it hasn’t provided all the answers, and much remains open to interpretation. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, considers what might happen next and explains why he’s still not expecting a eurozone interest-rate hike before 2020.
ECB Preview: Will Recent Italian Developments Influence Europe’s Tapering Timeline?
The future of the European Central Bank’s three-year-old quantitative easing program lies in the balance. Will the bank’s governing council use its scheduled June meeting to extend the program or confirm that asset purchases will end in September? David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, believes recent European economic data and political developments in Italy point towards an extension. And he argues that means eurozone interest-rate hikes are unlikely before 2020.
An Unconventional New Government in Italy
Two months after the Italian election, the country is on the verge of a new government led by the right-wing La Lega and left-wing Five Star movement. While markets take some time to digest the full implications of this unusual tie-up, David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, offers his analysis of the political situation.
Italian Election Result: Political Uncertainty is Business as Usual for Italy
No outright winner emerged from the Italian general election, but as David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, explains, that situation is normal for Italy. He expects a muted response from European bond markets but cautions there may be consequences down the road if the authorities fail to take the need for reform seriously.
Italian Election Outlook and Why We Don’t See an ECB Rate Hike Before 2020
The upcoming Italian election is not attracting the same sort of attention among investors as votes last year in France and Germany. For that very reason, David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, believes an unexpected result might provoke an outsized market reaction.
The Underappreciated Story: How Brexit Threatens to Shift the Balance of Power in the EU
For fixed income investors eyeing opportunities in Europe, 2018 should be the year economic fundamentals reassert their worth, according to David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income. Nonetheless, Zahn believes many investors are underappreciating the long-term implications for Europe of the biggest political uncertainty for the region—Brexit.
ICS Cybersecurity and the Devil’s Rope
Near the end of the 19th century, the “Devil’s Rope,” or barbed wire, divided the West protecting the assets of farmers from ranchers who wanted to maintain their traditional way of life – an open range upon which their cattle could graze unfettered. Outlaw groups were recruited to cut fences and reestablish open access to land and public water sources. This did not sit well with farmers, who turned to lawmen for help. This conflict grew and eventually became known as the great Fence Cutter War.
How the German Election Could Dictate Europe’s Future Direction
As Germany prepares to go to the polls in its general election, David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s head of European fixed income, considers what the result could mean for Europe, the European Union and the eurozone. He also reviews the recent State of the Union address from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for clues as to what the future might hold for investors—even for those outside of Europe.
Why ECB Tapering Could Prompt a Change in Bond-Market Philosophy
Markets had been on tenterhooks ahead of the September meeting of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council. They were anxious to see whether ECB President Mario Draghi would confirm what most observers, including us, already expect: eurozone quantitative easing (QE) would begin tapering in 2018. In the end there was no specific guidance on tapering, which leads us to believe that an announcement will be made at the October 26 meeting.
Global Economic Perspective: July
Robust US Economic Fundamentals Support Fed’s Gradual Tightening of Monetary Policy We see little change in US economic fundamentals despite a modest rise in Treasury yields over the last month, which seemed largely due to a sharp selloff across many other global bond markets, rather than to domestic factors.
Theresa May's Shock Defeat Threatens Further Volatility
Theresa May’s gamble didn’t pay off. She had hoped that a resounding election victory and an increased majority in the House of Commons would give her a mandate to pursue her own political agenda and, in particular, strengthen her hand in negotiations to secure the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU).
Theresa May's Shock Defeat Threatens Further Volatility
In the sort of unexpected twist that observers have come to expect from elections recently, U.K. voters have dealt a bitter blow to Prime Minister Theresa May, robbing her of her narrow parliamentary majority. With further financial market volatility on the horizon, David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his view of the situation. Theresa May's gamble didn't pay off.
Theresa May's shock defeat: Pound likely to sell-off further; UK bond prices may surge
Theresa May’s gamble didn’t pay off. She had hoped that a resounding victory and an increased majority in the House of Commons would give her the mandate to pursue her own political agenda and, in particular, strengthen her hand in negotiations to secure the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the (EU). But those plans are in tatters and instead, slightly less than a year after the country voted to leave the EU, the has been plunged into further political uncertainty.
Is it time to consider European sovereign debt?
At the halfway point of the year, we’ve several significant European political events behind us, but we think politics are likely to remain a focus for investors eyeing European opportunities.Over the next couple of months we can expect National Assembly elections in France, a general election in Germany, and the resumption of Brexit negotiations after a snap election in the UK on 8 June.At the same time, recent political developments in Spain, Italy and Greece are likely remain on investors’...
French Election Result - It's Not Yet A Done Deal
There's some clear blue water between the two candidates contesting the final round of the French presidential elections on May 7: Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Here, David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, shares some thoughts on the potential market implications of the race.
French Election Result: It’s Not Yet a Done Deal
On paper, the result of the final round of the French election now looks to be a foregone conclusion; most observers would expect a solid victory for the more establishment Emmanuel Macron over the far-right Marine Le Pen. But if we’ve learned anything from recent political events, it’s to expect the unexpected. Certainly a Macron victory would be seen as the most market-friendly outcome.
How Theresa May's Election Gambit Could Strengthen Her Brexit Hand
U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to call a snap general election for June 8, 2017 caught just about everybody off guard, but we think it could prove a shrewd political move. Like many observers, we were left wondering, "why now?" especially as Brexit negotiations are likely to be put on a back-burner for the seven-week duration of the election campaign.
An Investor’s View of the French Presidential Election
As far as most commentators are concerned, the first round of the French presidential elections, due to take place on April 23, will be a race to see who faces the far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen in the run-off in May. Here, David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, gives a brief assessment of how the bond market might react to the various candidates.
An Investor's View Of The French Presidential Election
As far as most commentators are concerned, the first round of the French presidential elections, due to take place on April 23, will be a race to see who faces the far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen in the run-off in May. Here, David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, gives a brief assessment of how the bond market might react to the various candidates.
Does Dutch Election Result Signal An End To Europe's Populist Surge?
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group's David Zahn examines the issue of populism in Europe, including Dutch elections and a possible second Scottish referendum. The failure of far-right politician Geert Wilders to make the expected breakthrough in this week's Dutch elections has led some observers to speculate that Europe's experiment with populism is fizzling out.
Does Dutch Election Result Signal an End to Europe’s Populist Surge?
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s David Zahn examines the issue of populism in Europe, including Dutch elections and a possible second Scottish referendum. The failure of far-right politician Geert Wilders to make the expected breakthrough in this week’s Dutch elections has led some observers to speculate that Europe’s experiment with populism is fizzling out.
European Bond Market: What Lies Beyond The Politics?
Although continued political uncertainty looks set to dominate the investment agenda for 2017, much as it did in 2016, David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, feels investors need to take heed of other themes that may be bubbling under the surface in the year ahead. Here he shares some thoughts on divergent central bank policy and divergence in economic growth as well as discussing some of the likely political highlights of 2017.
'Molecular' Cybersecurity Vs. Information Cybersecurity
When it comes to industrial processes, security begins at the molecular level. Not all cybersecurity risk is created equal. Case in point: when Sony was hacked, information was stolen, systems were wiped, and society was temporarily deprived of a Seth Rogan movie. These were mostly bad outcomes, and Sony certainly suffered a significant financial loss.
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