Dustin Jalbert

North American lumber markets are rebalancing. Here’s what buyers need to understand next. By DustinJalbert RISI Fastmarkets August 6, 2026 Category: Finance & Economics Region: United States After widespread sawmill curtailments and closures in 2025, alongside a significant reduction in imports from Canada and Europe, supply is aligning more closely with underlying demand. Sawmill operating rates have improved and prices have gradually recovered from the lows seen last year.

Supply has tightened following sawmill curtailments and lower imports, supporting prices despite relatively flat end-use demand. Energy costs, housing affordability and AI-related infrastructure investment are creating new pressures across the wood products supply chain. Understanding how these market forces interact may prove more important than tracking lumber prices alone. For much of 2026, the North American softwood lumber market has been moving toward a healthier balance.

Canadian lumber duties rose from 14.38% to 35.19% in summer 2025, with a 10% Section 232 tariff added in October. After duties more than doubled, Canadian production fell 8% overall, with British Columbia down 13% between mid-2025 and early 2026. US mill operators are likely to gain market share from protective measures, while Canadian mills face higher costs and continued capacity rationalization.