Economics Editor of @SkyNews, columnist at @TheTimes. I like writing books and listening to obscure dance music

The dangers of the R word — Even if you weren't following the referendum campaign closely you'll probably remember a few of the economic highlights (lowlights?): the Vote Leave £350m bus; the "punishment Budget" and George Osborne predicting that there would be a recession if Britain left the EU. Now we know that all three of these claims were, in their own way, wrong.

EU: Osborne Warning Over Capital Flight Cost — Evidence that investors are shifting billions of pounds out of British assets is just a "taste of things to come" if we vote to leave the EU, the Chancellor has warned. His comments come after Sky News discovered some £65bn either left the UK or was converted into other currencies in March and April - the fastest rate since the financial crisis in early 2009.

More People Keeping Cash Outside Banks — Households may have started to hoard their cash, with new figures showing that the amount of money being kept outside Britain's banking system is now rising at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.

Hammond: Global Economy Faces Brexit 'Shadow' — The world economy will be darkened by a two-year Brexit "shadow", Philip Hammond has told Sky News. Speaking on the fringes of the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Chengdu - his first overseas visit as Chancellor - Mr Hammond acknowledged the decision to leave the EU would "hang over the world economy" until at least 2018.

IMF: Brexit May Not Mean A British Recession — Britain need not suffer a recession if it leaves the European Union, the International Monetary Fund has said in its assessment of the risks around the referendum. The Fund said that the UK economy would be comparatively weaker if it left the EU but under its "limited" scenario - in which Britain stayed in the European Economic Area, the group that includes Norway - growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year.

The elephant (not) in the room — At the time of the Bank of England's interest rate decision, no-one in the room knew who was going to be Britain's new Chancellor. This might seem like an odd thing to mention, given right now the main story people will be obsessing with is the element of shock - that the Monetary Policy Committee decided not to cut rates.

Interest Rates Kept On Hold By Bank At 0.5% — The Bank of England has surprised many economists by maintaining interest rates despite pressure for a cut to stimulate UK growth.

Consumer Confidence In Biggest Fall Since '94 — Levels of consumer confidence in Britain have fallen at the fastest rate in more than two decades - the first statistical evidence from a major body that the EU referendum vote has had an impact on the economy. The confidence barometer from research group GfK dropped from -1 points to -9 between June and the week following the poll.

Two hours… - The Real Economy — That was how long the Chancellor's message of reassurance to market investors lasted today. George Osborne resurfaced at the Treasury just after 7am to tell investors that the UK economy remains strong, to assure them and households that he would take all necessary contingency plans to deal with the instability following the Brexit vote.

Further thoughts on the EU referendum result — The problem is not our relationship with the European Union. That can be resolved in the coming years and, who knows, might turn into something more functional than the incoherent muddle it has become in the wake of the euro crisis.
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Sep 27, 2016

Big appetite for latest UK govt debt auction: £400m of 36yr index-linked gilts. After adjusting for inflation, real interest rate: -1.77%

Sep 27, 2016

WTO says goods trade growth this yr is slowest since financial crisis. Says weak econ growth & "creeping protectionism" partly to blame

Sep 26, 2016

@AllieRenison yes I watched. U may have been first person to point out on TV that there are actually lots of v different types of “passport”

Sep 23, 2016

Would it really be a disaster if the City lost “passporting” privileges to the EU? Not necessarily. My @thetimes col

Sep 22, 2016

“Insider dealing began to be outlawed in the US in the 1930s… in UK not until 1960s was it generally recognised as theft” - David Kynaston

Sep 21, 2016

@kasangster22 again, read the blog. Until recently the majority of City economists were predicting a technical recession

Sep 21, 2016

@Stephenh61 Pls read the blog. It's all abt how the economy is doing better than expected. Or are you determined to ignore the positive?

Sep 21, 2016

@nbinsider63 erm have you even read the blog? If so, what are you talking about?

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