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Articles by David Freddoso
Republicans just got the electoral beatdown of a lifetime. Here are five reasons why.
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 44 Nov. 9, 2026 Post-election edition Total election beatdown: Republicans hit a modern nadir Five mistakes by the Trump administration that helped lead to this Important perspective on Republicans’ defeat Outlook “An extinction-level event.” This was the phrase that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) memorably used to describe the 2026 midterm election. It was a beatdown that everyone saw coming, but whose magnitude almost no one expected.
Special Edition: Your 2026 Election Guide
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 43 This week: Special Edition: Your 2026 Election Guide Nov. 2, 2026 Outlook Let’s not sugarcoat it: The expectation for tomorrow’s election is a total wipeout for the Republican Party and a stiff repudiation of the tumultuous opening years of the Trump 2.0 era. Such a blowout might just be in the offing, if the latest polls from around the country are to be believed.
One week away: Republicans still have hope to retain the U.S. Senate
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 42 Oct. 26, 2025 This week: Four reasons Republicans should expect to lose Where they might win anyway El-Sayed’s call to “purge” media in Egypt puts him on the back foot Outlook Election Day is next Tuesday. In the last two weeks, it appears that a huge wave of spending by Republicans has stabilized and even improved their very bad situation.
Not all the news is bad
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 41 Oct. 19, 2026 This week: Not all the news is bad for Republicans Sen. Marshall tries something different: Positive ads Trump blames Texas GOP for Paxton’s underperforming race Outlook With just two weeks to go until election day, Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to take the U.S. House and slightly favored (by futures traders, anyway) to take over the U.S. Senate.
Worst case scenario?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 40 Oct. 12, 2026 This week: Senate control: The worst case scenario for Republicans What’s the matter with Kansas? Even after Talarico vanishes, Paxton is struggling just to keep it close Senate 2026 Democrats are very likely to take over the House in the Nov. 3 election, but again, the Senate is where all the action is in 2026.
Don’t forget there’s also downside risk
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 39 Oct. 5, 2026 This week: Leaky boat: The good, bad, and worse news for Senate Republicans Republican candidates suddenly struggle in supposedly safe states Texas Republicans turn to their candidate’s ex-wife Outlook First, the good news for Republicans: Their Senate nominees in Iowa and Maine seem to be running better than they were before. Both Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and Sen.
Democrats’ unpopularity won’t save Republicans in 2026
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 38 Sept. 28, 2026 This week: Beware: Democrats’ unpopularity won’t help Republicans Sullivan jumps into the lead, but short of 50 percent Susan Collins leaps ahead in Maine nailbiter Outlook The hour is getting late for the midterm elections. Early voting will soon be underway in some states — and if you’re planning to get an absentee ballot, you’d better do it quickly.
Trump, seeing his legacy on the line, arrives with a financial lifeline for Republican campaigns
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 37 Sep. 21, 2026 This Week: MAGA organizations start spending Republicans have the money to defend — they need a clear message Paxton trailing in nine of the last ten polls Outlook It is no surprise that things generally don’t look good for Senate Republicans right now. Last week’s news did contain some bright spots — possible pickup opportunities for Republicans in New Hampshire and (a longshot) Minnesota.
Strategy of running independents backfires on Democrats
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 36 Sept. 14, 2026 This week: Republicans keep it close in Minnesota Trojan Horse “independent” candidates have a rough week Democrat has a clear advantage in Texas Outlook With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the prospects for the 2026 midterm elections are getting clearer. Republicans face a very challenging environment. Odds are very strong that they will lose the House, and they are more likely than not to lose the Senate.
Will a mini-convention help Republicans?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 35 Sept. 8, 2026 This week: Will the Republican mini-convention succeed? Iowa Republicans face their toughest challenge since 2012 Talarico may regret his speech on dismantling capitalism Outlook Republican mini-convention: This week, Republicans are celebrating the putative Labor Day start of the campaign season by staging a midterm national convention.
Trump has never governed without a Republican Senate
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 34 Aug. 31, 2026 This week: The importance of keeping the Senate Another socialist upset brewing in New Hampshire? Paxton struggling while other Republicans lead in their races Outlook Importance of the Senate: If you had suggested last year that Republicans might lose control of the U.S. Senate by losing in Texas and Alaska as opposed to, say, Maine and Ohio, it would have seemed rather far-fetched. Yet here we are.
Alex Vindman humiliated, DSA scores another big win over traditional Democrats
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 33 Aug. 24, 2026 This Week: The key to understanding DSA candidates The humiliation of Alexander Vindman (D) Democrats’ cynicism shines forth in Alaska, Nebraska Outlook DSA requirements: Democrats and other voters need to understand what it means for candidates to be members of or closely involved with the Democatic Socialists of America organization.
Socialism has a vote-ceiling
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 32 Aug. 17, 2026 This week: Why the pollsters were less wrong than you think Hong aside, socialism is becoming a real November problem for Democrats It is telling whom Ron DeSantis will not endorse Outlook Socialist underperformance: The loss by socialist Francesca Hong (D) for the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor caught us as much by surprise as anyone. Like everyone else, we expected her to win.
DSA’s long march through the Democratic Party continues
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 31 Aug. 10, 2026 This week: Will Americans have to re-learn the lessons of socialism? DSA candidate leads in Wisconsin El-Sayed nomination another clear indicator of Democrats’ direction Outlook Communism is on the march in America — and it may just save Republicans’ Senate majority. With the extremely narrow primary victory of former Wayne County health official Abdul E-Sayed (D) in Michigan (more below), Democratic voters are rolling the dice.
Idaho: The last pro-life redoubt?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 30 Aug. 3, 2026 This week: Kansas tomorrow, Idaho in November: A crucial year for state-level abortion politics Wisconsin Democrats play musical chairs in governor primary El-Sayed is the late favorite in Michigan’s Senate race tomorrow Outlook Roe v. Wade may no longer be a federal question. But it will be a question in a few key states this year, including one where it plays a subtle role tomorrow.
Socialism, DNC weakness threaten Democrat gains at the margins
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 29 July 27, 2026 This week: Socialist takeover could make expected Democrat wins harder A broke DNC doesn’t mean Republicans win, but it could help Maine Democrats pick a new nominee Outlook With the end of primary season fast approaching, Democrats are still hoping to seize both houses of Congress. And they have at least a shot. The House is considered the easy target, just based on the history and the generic ballot polling.
Wisconsin Democrats in chaos as socialist presses for the party’s nomination for governor
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 28 July 20, 2026 This week: Wisconsin Democrats in true chaos The fix is already in for Platner’s replacement in Maine Platner’s downfall may have knock-on effects in Michigan Outlook Socialists continue their attempted takeover of the Democratic Party’s nominating contests. They appear to have taken a step closer to victory in Wisconsin and a step backward in Michigan. Governor 2026 Arizona: Rep.
Platner’s downfall reshapes the Senate picture
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 27 July 13, 2026 This week: Graham Platner drops out after rape allegation McMorrow exits — can the Dem establishment stop El-Sayed? Lindsey Graham abruptly passes away Outlook A lot can happen in two weeks, and over the last two weeks, it did. President Trump has resumed the bombing of Iran, ending the cease-fire — and investors seem strangely unworried.
Democrats face a socialist takeover
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 26 June 29, 2026 This week: Socialists seizing the Democratic Party Takeover puts new pressures on Democrats’ coalition Letlow wins nomination in Louisiana Outlook American Communists: Last week, Democrats in New York nominated multiple socialists for state and federal legislative seats. They defeated longstanding liberal incumbent Reps.
Republicans face the challenge of defying history
The Briefing, Vol XIV, Issue 25 June 22, 2026 This week: Not all the polls are bad, but Republicans are trying to defy history El-Sayed may finally be consolidating progressive support Montana Democrats’ independent strategy under threat Outlook The basic idea behind why the president’s party typically loses seats in the midterms is simple: Presidents are elevated to power by large surges in voter turnout in their presidential year, powered by a massive campaign to elect them.
Will an Iran deal save Republicans?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 24 June 15, 2026 This week: Will an Iran deal save Republicans? It’s complicated. The date to expect new oppo on Platner Southern states to settle primaries soon as Trump weighs in Outlook An apparent agreement to end the Iran War sent the price of oil plunging and stocks soaring at the opening bell this morning. Could this peace help Republicans, who find themselves in a tough midterm election year and facing considerable headwinds?
Will Graham Platner actually be on a ballot this fall?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 23 June 8, 2026 This week: Republicans struggle to avoid the typical midterm result Key to winning: Avoid a yes-no referendum on the president Will Democrats have to replace Platner on the ballot? Outlook A president’s party is simply expected to be unpopular and lose ground in any given midterm election year. It has happened this way in all but two midterm elections (1998 and 2002) since the Civil War.
Dog ate my autopsy: Democrats learned nothing from 2024
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 21 May 25, 2026 Happy Memorial Day to all our readers. In honor of our nation’s gallant dead. This week: Democrats learned nothing from 2024 Autopsy report is an embarrassment to the party Platner has skeletons in his porto-potty Outlook Democratic Autopsy: Someone leaked the so-called “autopsy” of Democrats’ 2024 election loss to CNN. Once the DNC was informed that this was about to become a news story, it voluntarily published the rest of the autopsy.
Bill Cassidy finds out — is Thomas Massie next?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 20 May 18, 2026 This week: Could a Republican win in Oregon? Massie’s future is on the line this week Bill Cassidy finds out Governor 2026 Oregon: Here’s an interesting thought: Are things finally getting bad enough in Oregon that a Republican could actually win for governor? It hasn’t happened since 1982. Indeed, only one Republican has won any statewide race in Oregon since 2003 — in 2016, the late Dennis Richardson (R) squeaked out a win for secretary of state.
Democrats’ Virginia plan backfires
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 19 May 11, 2026 This week: In case you were wondering, it’s still Trump’s party Democrats’ cynical Virginia plan backfires Becerra’s rise leads to sniping over his invisible Cabinet job Outlook Still Trump’s party: In case you were wondering how solid President Trump’s grip on the Republican Party is, a few obscure state Senate primaries in Indiana last Tuesday tell the entire story.
The Supreme Court opens a door for Republicans
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 18 May 4, 2026 This week: Republicans cannot count on redistricting to save them Trump decisively jumps in to settle Kentucky race Primary day in Michigan is tomorrow House 2026 The Supreme Court has created an opening that many Republicans want to and will jump through. But they need to keep something in mind: The voting public is distressed, and as the party in power during a midterm, they are the ones voters will take it out on.
Three silver linings after Republicans’ loss in Virginia
Vol. XIV, Issue 17 Apr. 27, 2026 This week: Republicans’ consolation after Virginia loss South Carolina governor race headed to runoff with a close finish Republican Senate candidate hit with a 50-year restraining order Outlook Trump assassination attempt: Even if its political ramifications are not immediately obvious, the third assassination attempt against President Trump cannot go unmentioned.
Republicans hold out hope of beating Virginia’s gerrymandering referendum
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 14 April 6, 2026 This week: Bondi fired Trump gets a boost from jobs data, Iran rescue Can Republicans beat Va. gerrymandering referendum? Outlook Bondi out: What had up to now been a surprisingly stable administration is suddenly starting to lose its first round of Cabinet alumni.
The last government shutdown?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 13 March 30, 2026 This week: Are government shutdowns a thing of the past? Trump’s win-win approach to TSA funding Maine’s Graham Platner trouncing sitting Dem governor in another primary poll Outlook End of shutdowns?
For Cornyn, the math is still not adding up
The Briefing, Vol. VIV, Issue 12 March 23, 2026 This week: Trump still looking to wrap up in Iran Cameron loses altitude in Kentucky Senate primary Math still not adding up for Cornyn Outlook The air war in Iran, launched at the end of February by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is at this point starting to bite U.S. consumers with high gas prices.
Daines slips out of his primary; Trump needs a steady off-ramp for Iran
The Briefing Vol. XIV, Issue 11 March 16, 2026 This week: Trump is still risking it all on victory in Iran Daines slips out of his re-election bid in Montana Dems may yet lose Va. gerrymandering referendum Outlook “No matter whom we elect, we always get John McCain.” We were not able to track down who said it originally, but this is a valid libertarian critique of Republican politics.
First primary looms tomorrow; Trump rides high on State of the Union, Iran decapitation
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 9 March 2, 2026 This week: Trump delivers powerful State of the Union speech Trump gambles it all on an Iran regime-change operation Graham Platner: Raging bull or paper tiger? Outlook State of the Union: Despite its great length, (length can be a true speech-killer) President Trump delivered by far the most powerful State of the Union speech of his presidency so far. And it hit all of the hot notes we anticipated, and then some.
Special edition: How should Trump handle his fourth State of the Union?
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 8 Feb. 23, 2026 This week: State of the Union tomorrow How Trump can use it to frame the midterms Virginia gerrymander referendum on hold once again State of the Union Tomorrow, February 24, President Trump will deliver his fourth formal State of the Union address as president. It will be the first of his second term in office.
Voter ID could reach the ballot this fall in California
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 7 Feb. 16, 2026 Happy Presidents’ Day. This week: California will likely have voter ID on the ballot Wesley Hunt gets doxxed in contentious Texas Senate race Virginians will vote on extreme gerrymander before a court decides Outlook DHS funding fight: Technically, the federal government is in a partial shutdown this week. It isn’t something most people will notice, though. Unlike the six-week shutdown late last year, this time most agencies are funded.
MAGA still dominates the GOP, and immigration is still Trump's best issue
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 6 Feb. 9, 2026 This week: MAGA still dominates the GOP, and immigration is still Trump’s best issue With Trump backing his challenger, Cassidy may be doomed Talarico’s slur against Allred could cost him Outlook There has been a great deal of left-wing concern-trolling about MAGA voters supposedly regretting their votes for President Trump. Is it true? In a word, no.
Democrats' 2030s problem still looms as voters leave Blue states
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 5 Feb. 2, 2026 This week: Trump deescalates again — and it might work again Support for deportations continues, despite what you hear Democrats’ 2030s problem is still a problem Outlook Minnesota ICE: President Trump is best-known for doubling down. But sometimes, a good climbdown is just the thing. It helped him deal with the Greenland controversy last month in a constructive manner, ending with a deal that gives the U.S. what it essentially needs.
Trump faces a challenge to federal authority in Minnesota
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 4 Jan. 26, 2026 This week: ICE meets organized resistance in Minnesota Can a Republican win in California? Tafoya running in Minnesota Outlook ICE crisis: Last week, President Trump wisely abandoned his plans for Greenland annexation. Stepping away from a politically terrible position that put him on the losing end of an 80-20 issue, Trump instead struck a smart deal that will give the U.S. sovereignty over its bases on the snow-covered arctic island.
Trump rings in the New Year by seizing Maduro
The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 1 Jan. 5, 2025 Happy New Year to all of our readers! This week: Trump’s uncharacteristic, Reaganesque week in foreign policy Tim Walz (D) abruptly drops out of his own reelection bid Democrats still have no one to challenge Kelly Ayotte (R) in New Hampshire Foreign policy: American voters tend to ignore foreign policy, so it is not a topic upon which we frequently dwell.
What has Trump 2.0 given you this year?
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 51 Dec. 22, 2025 Note to readers: The Briefing will take next week off in observance of the upcoming holiday. Merry Christmas, and see you in the new year! This week: What Trump 2.0 can say it accomplished in 2025 Stefanik abruptly drops out Lummis to retire Outlook The second Trump administration’s first calendar year is at a close.
First poll of a Crockett-Talarico primary: A race all about race
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 50 Dec. 15, 2025 This week: About Indiana: ‘Safe’ districts often aren’t in a wave year Democrats’ overperformance must be taken seriously First poll of a Crockett-Talarico primary in Texas Outlook Midterms: Indiana’s state Senate overwhelmingly rejected a redistricting proposal that would have aided House Republicans nationally. This was taken as an unusual Republican rebuke of President Trump, who has been pressing legislatures around the country to draw new maps.
Delicious Democrat drama in Texas
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 49 Dec. 8, 2025 This week: Republicans relieved after Tennessee, but they’re not out of the woods yet Platner’s candidacy is for real and it’s sticking Crockett expected to announce today for Senate Outlook Special election: The swearing-in of Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-Tenn.) bolsters the Republican majority in the U.S. House, which now stands at 220 to 213, with two vacancies in Democratic-leaning seats.
Tennessee special election tomorrow highlights Trump's challenge for the midterms
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 48 Dec. 1, 2025 This week: Why presidents are so bad at midterms Republicans concerned as Tennessee-7 special looms tomorrow Spoilers? Cornyn makes a weak argument to clear the field. Outlook One reason the president’s party (no matter who is president) usually does poorly in midterm elections is that a party in power is a party without grounds for any serious grievance.
It's still 'The economy, stupid,' and it will be forever
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 47 Nov. 24, 2025 This week: Economy remains Trump’s biggest risk House margin on a knife’s edge Crockett keeps teasing a Senate run Outlook Economy: “It’s the economy, stupid.” The old adage from Democratic consultant James Carville remains as true today as it ever was. And at the moment, it is making a Democratic midterm victory seem increasingly likely.
Democrats face their own 'Tea Party' moment
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 46 Nov. 17, 2025 This week: Democrats face their own Tea Party moment Senate picture gives them a chance to put additional seats on the table Jasmine Crockett won’t announce her decision on a Senate bid until next month Outlook Democrats, buoyed by their better-than expected and decisive victories earlier this month, feel a burst of confidence as the midterm cycle begins.
It worked: The election is over, and suddenly so is the shutdown
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 45 Nov. 10, 2025 This week: Democrats sweep the 2024 off-year races Suddenly give in on the shutdown Seven of the eight Dems crossing over to end the shutdown won’t face consquences Outlook 2025 Elections: If it can be explained in as few words as possible, here it is: Democrats needed to keep the bees angry just long enough, and not at them.
Election 2025 will test the government shutdown's effectiveness
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 44 Nov. 3, 2025 This week: Election Day will be a test of Democrats’ shutdown politics Tuesday’s elections carry some chances for Republicans Crockett Senate bid could be huge for Texas GOP Outlook Shutdown and Consequences: Election Day 2025 arrives tomorrow. Among other things, this means we are one just year away from the 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats haven't hit rock bottom
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 43 Oct. 27, 2025 This week: Democrats still haven’t hit rock bottom Shutdown will soon start to bite the poor Dems’ ferocious Maine oppo dump suddenly makes sense Outlook Rock Bottom: Since November, Democrats have been in recovery from a punishing loss. The question is, are they actually recovering? That is to say, are they fixing what’s wrong in preparation for the next battle?
Time may not be on Democrats' side
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 42 Oct. 20, 2025 This week: Shutdown: Time may not be on Democrats’ side Miyares tries to drive a wedge into the Democrat ticket Iowa Senate candidate quits amid school scandal Outlook Shutdown blame-game: Three weeks into the government shutdown, the public still mostly blames Republicans. However, that perception is gradually shifting.
First signs Jay Jones is dragging down Virginia Dems
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 41 Oct.
Democrats worried about off-year elections, and with good reason
The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 36 Oct. 6, 2025 This week: Federal shutdown puts Democrats on the spot N.J. Democrats anxious over governor’s race AG candidate threatens to drag down Virginia Dems Outlook Government shutdown: We are just about one week into the government shutdown that began October 1. So far, it feels like the other shoe has yet to drop in multiple senses of the phrase.
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