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Articles by Gideon Rose
Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Will Hold
In the wake of agreeing to a two-week ceasefire on April 7, both the United States and Iran are claiming victory in their war. Each says the same thing: We held out and the other guy blinked first. In fact, both decided to call it a draw. And some sort of outcome like this was always likely, because the structure of the game constrained the decision-making of the players—even players as idiosyncratic as U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of the Islamic Republic.
Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Will Hold
In the wake of agreeing to a two-week cease-fire on April 7, both the United States and Iran are claiming victory in their war. Each says the same thing: We held out and the other guy blinked first. In fact, both decided to call it a draw. And some sort of outcome like this was always likely, because the structure of the game constrained the decision-making of the players—even players as idiosyncratic as U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of the Islamic Republic.
Europe’s Two-Front War
In the first half of the twentieth century, Europe was the most militarized and violent region on the planet. By the early twenty-first, it had become the least militarized and least violent, a model of peace, cooperation, and transnational integration. But as Europeans concentrated on building a calmer future, others were resurrecting a more tumultuous past.
Europe’s Two-Front War
In the first half of the twentieth century, Europe was the most militarized and violent region on the planet. By the early twenty-first, it had become the least militarized and least violent, a model of peace, cooperation, and transnational integration. But as Europeans concentrated on building a calmer future, others were resurrecting a more tumultuous past.
Get Ready for the Next Nuclear Age
As the second Trump administration rapidly dismantles crucial elements of the postwar international order, it seems not to have considered some obvious possible consequences of its actions—such as the triggering of a new round of nuclear proliferation, this time not by terrorists or rogues but by the countries formerly known as U.S. allies.
Get Ready for the Next Nuclear Age
As the second Trump administration rapidly dismantles crucial elements of the postwar international order, it seems not to have considered some obvious possible consequences of its actions—such as the triggering of a new round of nuclear proliferation, this time not by terrorists or rogues but by the countries formerly known as U.S. allies.
Ending War Is Hard to Do
Ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are at the top of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda, and many expect the new administration to change American policy in both. It may well try to. But unless Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu play along, Trump could easily find himself shifting back toward the Biden administration’s approach in both theaters—because U.S. interests and geopolitical realities don’t change with the election returns.
Ending War Is Hard to Do
Ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are at the top of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda, and many expect the new administration to change American policy in both. It may well try to. But unless Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu play along, Trump could easily find himself shifting back toward the Biden administration’s approach in both theaters—because U.S. interests and geopolitical realities don’t change with the election returns.
Isolationism 2.0: Donald Trump and the Future of the Liberal Order
Donald Trump recently disparaged NATO and joked about future Russian aggression, increasing doubts around the world about the future of American foreign policy. With isolationism and protectionism rising and revisionist powers challenging a Western-dominated international order, many hear echoes of the 1930s.
How Iraq Happened
In This Review In This Review Sometimes foreign policy lies downstream from technology. When navies ran on wind, the lumber that could produce sailing ships was a prized natural resource. The arrival of steam power turned mines and coaling stations into crucial strategic assets. Then the switch from steam to oil made petroleum deposits treasures beyond measure. The oil riches of the Middle East were first discovered in 1908, and soon the region was essential to the global economy.
The Man Who Remade Foreign Affairs
James F. Hoge, Jr., believed passionately in American democracy. He thought that its lifeblood was the flow of accurate information and honest reasoning and spent half a century fighting for informed public debate. The world is better off for his efforts. Hoge, who was known to all as Jim, had a storied career as a newspaper editor and publisher, remaking newsrooms, taking risks, exposing corruption, and courting controversy.
The Man Who Remade Foreign Affairs - Tribune Content Agency (September 20, 2023)
James F. Hoge, Jr., believed passionately in American democracy. He thought that its lifeblood was the flow of accurate information and honest reasoning and spent half a century fighting for informed public debate. The world is better off for his efforts. Hoge, who was known to all as Jim, had a storied career as a […] To purchase full-length Foreign Affairs articles, please email Tribune Content Agency at tcasales@tribpub.com
What Oppenheimer Left Out
Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is a cinematic tour-de-force—superbly acted, visually stunning, and dramatically compelling. Adapted from Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin’s acclaimed biography, the film’s portrait of the leader of the Manhattan Project is generally accurate and intellectually serious, tracing the route from the development of modern physics to the dawn of the nuclear era.
The World Bank Is Failing on Climate Change
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions The World Bank, the world’s largest international development organization, has long faced criticism for a host of perceived shortcomings, including imposing coercive conditions on its loans to developing countries, instituting insufficient environmental safeguards in its projects, and failing to properly consult civil society in the countries...
How Today Is Like the 1890s
The most popular historical analogy for current American troubles is the Civil War era. The second most popular is the Gilded Age. But where the 1850s do not meaningfully resemble today, the 1890s certainly do. Technological change, economic concentration, and rising inequality; political partisanship, financial corruption, and social turmoil; populism, racism, and xenophobia—the similarities are striking.
Ukraine’s Winnable War
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an attempt to conquer the country and erase the independence it had gained after the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades earlier. Given the vast disparities in size and strength between the belligerents, almost nobody gave the defenders much of a chance. Pessimists thought Kyiv would succumb in days or weeks. Optimists thought it might take months. Few believed Ukraine could ever beat back its attacker.
6/13/23 National Security News and Commentary
Quotes of the Day: 1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2023 2. Defense secretary taps Pacific Fleet’s Paparo to be top Navy officer 3. Ukraine’s Winnable War 4. What Does the West Really Know About Xi’s China? 5. Ceding ground in Ukraine, Russia kills civilians in apartment block strike 6. Russia releases video of captured German tanks, U.S. fighting vehicles in Ukraine 7. Americans Should Prepare for Cyber Sabotage From Chinese Hackers, US Official Warns 8.
Ukraine’s Winnable War
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an attempt to conquer the country and erase the independence it had gained after the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades earlier. Given the vast disparities in size and strength between the belligerents, almost nobody gave the defenders much of a chance.
Policy Journals and National Security
The story is told of a traveler in the ancient world who came across three woodcutters in a forest clearing. Asked about their labors, one said, “We’re chopping wood.” Another said, “We’re making lumber from the famous Cedars of Lebanon.” And the third said, “We’re helping King Solomon build his Temple in Jerusalem.” Policy journals are a bit like that. At the most prosaic level, they are regular collections of articles offering advice on public policy.
Why Today Is Not Like the 1850s
American politics turned hyper toxic several years ago, and ever since commentators have raised the specter of a second civil war. No other historical parallel, it seems, captures so viscerally today’s national division into two hostile camps, each convinced the other poses a mortal threat to the republic. “Today’s events bear an uncanny resemblance to an earlier decade—the 1850s,” wrote one author in Politico. “It is like 1859,” wrote another in Foreign Policy.
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: One Year Later
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he thought his military would quickly take Kyiv and bring down the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That the war has lasted this long is evidence of how wrong Putin was and how much the world underestimated the strength of Ukrainian resistance. Although Ukraine has heroically defended itself, the conflict has taken an enormous toll.
How Today Is Like the 1790s
The last several years in American politics have been bad. So bad, in fact, that most of us have never seen anything like it. Some consider the moment unique; others compare it to experiences of democratic regression in other countries. But many of the supposedly unprecedented features of contemporary politics have familiar echoes in earlier American history, and so the best mirror in which to see our present moment clearly could be our own past.
The Dollar Still Dominates
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions The centrality of the U.S. dollar in world affairs is mainly determined by economic factors, but geopolitical forces are threatening to weaken its top spot in the currency hierarchy. U.S. sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have pushed some countries to further reduce their reliance on the dollar.
The New North Korean Threat
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions Among the more overlooked geopolitical developments in 2022 was North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. During the year, it logged nearly 100 missile tests, a record for the country; several of them involved weapons of extraordinary range and potency.
The Roots of Trump's Unconstrained Presidency
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions In the age of Donald Trump, it often feels as though one individual has the power to chart the United States’ course in the world all by himself. Since taking office as U.S. president, Trump has made a series of unilateral decisions with enormous consequences.
The New Arab Revolt
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions In late April 1974, a group of young military officers in Portugal launched a coup against Marcello Caetano, their country’s aging dictator. Within days, the old regime was gone, and after eighteen months of political turmoil, Portugal was on its way to freedom.
What Nixon’s Endgame Reveals About Putin’s
Russian President Vladimir Putin has responded to recent military setbacks with defiance. After Ukrainian military successes this fall, Putin has ordered the hasty mobilization of several hundred thousand more troops, orchestrated sham referendums in occupied areas to formally incorporate them into Russia, issued increasingly explicit nuclear threats, and launched a wave of missile strikes across Ukraine.
What Nixon’s Endgame Reveals About Putin’s
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions Russian President Vladimir Putin has responded to recent military setbacks with defiance.
10/15/22 National Security News and Commetary
Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners Note that I am traveling this week (15-21 Oct) and in Hawaii (work, not vacation) so my daily news will be about 6 hours later. Quotes of the Day: 1. Three key takeaways from the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy 2. Party of One - The CCP Congress and Xi Jinping’s Quest to Control China 3. What Nixon’s Endgame Reveals About Putin’s 4. Army's Wormuth wants emerging tech to 'strengthen' Indo-Pacific logistics 5.
How Ukraine Defeating Russia Can Help Fix U.S. Foreign Policy
The 21st century has been one long catastrophe for U.S. foreign policy. A series of failed military interventions and other mishaps has squandered the country’s power and reputation, even as old rivals such as Russia revived their fortunes and new rivals such as China have continued to rise. In the blink of an eye, the notion of a post-American world has gone from specter to cliché.
The Trouble With Race
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions Everybody knows that racial tensions have been at the center of American political debate in recent months, but the story of racial and ethnic division is actually a global one, with a long and tortured history. For the lead package in the March/April issue, therefore, we decided to do a deep dive into racial issues in comparative and historical perspective.
The Clash at 20
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions The origins of “The Clash of Civilizations?” lie in the conjunction of a special scholar and a special time. By the beginning of the 1990s, Samuel P. Huntington was already one of the most important social scientists of the second half of the twentieth century, having authored major works in every subfield of political science.
The New Arab Revolt
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions In late April 1974, a group of young military officers in Portugal launched a coup against Marcello Caetano, their country’s aging dictator. Within days, the old regime was gone, and after eighteen months of political turmoil, Portugal was on its way to freedom.
The Green Book
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions “I am the Lorax. I speak for the trees,” a famous environmentalist rant began, almost half a century ago. Dr. Seuss’ creation had to speak for the trees, “for the trees have no tongues”; he spoke as well for the Brown Bar-ba-loots in their Bar-ba-loot suits, and all the rest of nature’s flora and fauna, who were under attack by, essentially, industrialized modernity.
Dakar and the Strategy of West Africa
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions MUCH has been written in general terms about Dakar and the menace it might be to the United States if it should fall into German hands. Yet the American public knows little factually either about Dakar itself or about French West Africa, the area of which it is the capital.
Emerging Markets Are the Next Comeback Nations
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, I argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that in the 2010s, the United States had defied predictions of its imminent decline and instead risen to new heights as an economic superpower. This revival, I warned, was in its very mature stages and likely to end in a long hangover.
West Africa in Evolution
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions THE French Community, created by General de Gaulle in full agreement with Africa's true representatives, is one of the greatest achievements of our time. Besides being a masterly concept to which I and with me the majority of the leaders of Senegal are deeply committed, it also is one of those ideas capable of catching the imagination of the masses.
Are Human Rights Universal?
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions THE RISE OF CULTURAL EXCEPTIONALISM In May 2000, the Taliban, who rule most of Afghanistan, ordered a mother of seven to be stoned to death for adultery in front of an ecstatic stadium of men and children.
The Vicious Circle in India
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions WHAT is India's future? The problem is rapidly assuming a significance which no one could have foreseen at the commencement of the war. The foundations of India's political structure have been so shaken by the events of the last twenty months that it seems unlikely they can ever regain their old stability.
The West Worries Too Much About Escalation in Ukraine
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions As the world looks on while Ukrainians fight for their lives and their freedom, many feel a burning desire to do more to support them. The problem is not a lack of forces or resources—it is fear of provoking a wider, perhaps nuclear, war with Russia.
Why Shinzo Abe Thought Japan Had to Change
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions In the years before Shinzo Abe came to power as prime minister, Japan staggered under multiple blows.
After Mali Comes Niger
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions French soldiers in Mali. (David Lewis / Courtesy Reuters) Last month, the French army's rapid advance into northern Mali and the timely deployment of troops from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) seemed to result in a swift victory over Islamist and Tuareg militants there.
India’s Gamble in Afghanistan
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions Since taking power last summer, Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has been isolated internationally; not a single country has yet recognized it. But in recent weeks, Taliban officials have made a series of increasingly public overtures to a once unlikely prospective partner: India. And the interest has been reciprocated, to some extent.
America and the Russian Future
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions THE very virulence with which Americans reject the outlook and practice of those who now hold power in the Kremlin implies in the strongest possible way the belief in, and desire for, an alternative--for some other Russian outlook and some other set of practices in Russia to take the place of those we know today.
The Great (Wo)man Theory of History
In This Review In This Review Downing Street Years By Margaret Thatcher Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions I cannot decide which is more compelling: Lady Thatcher's memoirs, this great intriguing gorget of a book, an artifact one holds in the hand--two hands, really--ever protective of its author's throat, or the range of reviews that have appeared in the British press, lengthy, opinionated, vituperative...
Algeria on the Brink?
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions Amid the political turmoil that has shaped the Middle East and North Africa since 2011, the Algerian regime has proved resilient. Over the past five decades, the country has undergone periods of instability and crisis.
Would Russians Embrace War?
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions In a January 28 interview with the Russian media about the Ukraine crisis, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said, “if it depends on the Russian Federation, there will not be a war.” He also suggested that there were “kernels of rationality” in the formal responses to Russia’s demands that the United States and NATO had delivered a few days earlier.
The Vatican and China Reach a Promising Accord
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions Compared in terms of state territory, economic power, or nuclear might, no two places differ more than China and Vatican City, the world’s largest and smallest countries.
Would China Go Nuclear?
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions I read with interest Caitlin Talmadge’s article “Beijing’s Nuclear Option” (November/December 2018), in which she quotes me estimating in 2015 that the odds of a U.S.-Chinese nuclear exchange were “somewhere between nil and zero.” She then goes on to make a case against remaining complacent in the face of the risk of escalation, with no discussion of what is in fact a...
Room for Everyone
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions The World Health Organization’s newly elected director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, points out that epidemics and pandemics are a major threat to global health “because viruses don’t respect borders, and they don’t need visas” (“Global Health Gets a Checkup,” September/October 2017).
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