Categorical Graphic Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 57,203 20,777,101 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL... MARGINAL 187,703 16,446,608 Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...Buffalo, NY...Fort Wayne, IN...Madison, WI... Probabilistic Tornado Graphic Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.