Gudlaug Olafsdottir

New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries. National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century. When considering what our future will look like, one of the most critical inputs is the rate of economic growth.

When estimating future socioeconomic scenarios and their implications, one of the most critical inputs is the gross domestic product (GDP) and its rate of growth over the long run (Christensen et al 2018). Extended end-of-century GDP projections are important in the projection of the impacts and economic costs of climate change (Rose et al 2017).