1 Introduction Research indicates that a significant proportion of CEOs exhibit the cognitive bias of overconfidence, characterized by an illusion of superior knowledge and ability, an exaggerated perception of control, and unwarranted certainty in one's judgments (e.g., Griffin and Tversky 1992; Hayward et al. 2006; Moore and Healy 2008). In the context of corporate strategy, this bias has important consequences.