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Articles by Héni Nsaibia
Understanding JNIM’s Expansion Beyond the Sahel
Skip to main content Ivorian soldiers patrol on the back of a pick-up truck in Kafolo, northeastern Ivory Coast, near Burkina Faso's border on October 9, 2025. Report 321 / Africa 20 February 2026 20+ minutes Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, the main jihadist movement in the central Sahel, has embarked on an expansion that has put West Africa on alert.
African News Agency : Welcome
[Published: Sunday December 14 2025] ACLED's 2026 Conflict Watchlist By Héni Nsaibia LONDON, 12 Dec. - (ANA) - ACLED’s 2026 Watchlist highlights 10 countries and regions projected to face armed conflict, political unrest, and humanitarian emergencies in 2026. Each country and regional report assesses the state of conflict, analyzing prospects of conflict escalation and resolution.
African News Agency : Welcome
[Published: Friday December 12 2025] ACLED's 2026 Conflict Watchlist By Héni Nsaibia LONDON, 12 Dec. - (ANA) - Armed Conflict Location & Event Data {ACLED’s) 2026 Watchlist highlights 10 countries and regions projected to face armed conflict, political unrest, and humanitarian emergencies in 2026. Each country and regional report assesses the state of conflict, analyzing prospects of conflict escalation and resolution.
Q&A | What does the Wagner Group’s exit from Mali mean for Russian activity in Africa?
The group has also helped the junta consolidate its power as it temporarily pushed back the threat of insurgents in some areas and changed the balance of fear.
Africa Overview: July 2025
Mali: A violent transition takes place as Africa Corps replaces the Wagner Group June marked a violent turning point in Mali’s conflict, as the Wagner Group’s mercenaries exited the country to be replaced by Africa Corps under more direct organizational supervision from the Russian Ministry of Defense. The deployment of Africa Corps coincided with a sharp escalation of violence on several fronts.
Africa Overview: June 2025
Democratic Republic of the Congo: ADF civilian targeting spikes in Lubero Last month in North Kivu’s Lubero territory, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) carried out a wave of civilian targeting. ACLED records a dozen such events and at least 60 reported fatalities, including frequent looting and burning of civilian property. Some of this violence triggered the mass displacement of civilians, including an ADF attack on 8 May in the Babili sector that reportedly killed 18 civilians.
Africa Overview: May 2025
Benin: JNIM offensive drives a surge in violence to record levels Violence in northern Benin reached a new milestone when al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) fighters carried out a major double attack on 17 April. The coordinated assault targeted military positions at Point Triple and Chutes de Koudou in the W National Park, killing at least 54 Beninese soldiers,1 making it the deadliest single day of conflict since militant activity began spreading into Benin in 2019.
Africa Overview: April 2025
Democratic Republic of the Congo: M23 and FARDC allies become increasingly active following the ceasefire agreement After the Angola-led peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda broke down, Doha managed to broker a ceasefire between Rwandan President Paul Kagame and DRC President Félix Tshisekedi on 18 March.
New frontlines: Jihadist expansion is reshaping the Benin, Niger, and Nigeria borderlands
Register for our webinar on Friday, 28 March 2025 at 10 a.m. NYC | 3 p.m. Brussels for a live conversation examining the latest data behind the jihadist movements in Benin, Niger, and Nigeria and their impacts on the exposed population. ACLED data on Benin are provided by a consortium led by the Clingendael Institute.
Africa Overview: March 2025
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Civilian targeting surges as M23 advance in South Kivu In February, the March 23 Movement (M23) and the Rwandan Defense Force (RDF) captured the South Kivu regional capital of Bukavu. They marched further into the province, with the Congolese army (FARDC), Wazalendo, and Burundian army retreating southward to positions around Uvira.
Expert Comment: Is the Islamic State Sahel Province kidnapping more foreigners?
After more than a decade of protracted conflict in the central Sahel, insecurity continues to spread both within the region and beyond its borders. While the kidnapping of foreigners has been a persistent threat since the early 2000s and has been mainly carried out by al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, a new trend is emerging.
Q&A: Is the Islamic State Sahel Province kidnapping more foreigners?
Yes, in recent weeks, there has been a series of kidnappings of foreign nationals across the central Sahel orchestrated by ISSP (see map below). These events include confirmed kidnappings of an Austrian woman in Agadez, Niger; a Spanish man in Assekrem, near Tamanrasset, Algeria; and four Moroccan truck drivers who were taken on the Dori-Tera road in Burkina Faso.
Africa Overview - February 2025
Democratic Republic of Congo: The M23 and RDF take over Goma city In January, the March 23 Movement (M23) and Rwanda Defense Force (RDF) took control of Goma, the capital city of North Kivu province. The capture of the city follows a breakdown of peace agreements between the Congolese and Rwandan governments and the RDF’s renewed involvement in the conflict against the Congolese military in December.
Africa Overview - January 2025
Sahel: Regional security challenges grow after ECOWAS approves the withdrawal of Sahelian states On 15 December, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) approved the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the regional bloc.5 ECOWAS introduced a six-month grace period in the hope that these countries, now cooperating separately through the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), will reverse their decision.6 The withdrawal is expected to have economic and diplomatic...
Africa Overview: November 2024
The Democratic Republic of the Congo: Battles show weakened alliances and a proliferation of violence in South Kivu Several notable clashes in South Kivu province last month signaled diminishing cooperation between allied armed groups and an ongoing proliferation of violence in the wake of the March 23 (M23) rebellion.
Africa Overview: October 2024
Central African Republic: Rising civilian targeting by state forces and Azande Ani Kpi Gbe Violence by state forces and ethnic self-defense militias drove a sharp increase in civilian targeting in October in the Central African Republic. Among the groups responsible for most incidents of violence against the civilian population is the Azande Ani Kpi Gbe.
Africa Overview - September 2024
Kenya: School arsons surge While arson at educational facilities and student demonstrations during which school property is burnt frequently occur in Kenya, these events surged in September throughout the country. ACLED records at least 50 cases of arsonists and rioters burning down school property last month. These school arson attacks contributed to over 80 mob violence events in Kenya, the highest number of monthly mob violence events since ACLED began recording data on Kenya in 1997.
Newly restructured, the Islamic State in the Sahel aims for regional expansion
A series of military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in recent years have transformed military dynamics in the region, shifting bilateral assistance from traditional Western partners like France and the United States to Russia, through mercenaries from the Wagner Group and its successor, Africa Corps.
Africa Overview: August 2024
Burkina Faso: JNIM’s deadly campaign intensifies Violence involving al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) was particularly deadly last month in Burkina Faso. ACLED records over 950 reported fatalities, which constitutes a 117% increase in fatalities compared to July.
Africa Overview: July 2024
Niger: Escalating violence in Tillaberi and worsening security post-coup Battles between military forces and pro-government militias against Islamist militants affiliated with the Sahel Province of the Islamic State (IS Sahel) and JNIM rose by over 65% in Tillaberi region in the past month. These battles were concentrated in the northwest Tillaberi region and were highest in Tera department, where IS Sahel clashed with military forces and carried out violence targeting civilians.
Africa Overview: June 2024
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Civilian deaths from targeted attacks by the ADF spike in North Kivu In June, attacks on civilians by the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) escalated in North Kivu province. The number of reported fatalities resulting from targeted attacks on civilians increased by more than five times compared to the previous month.
Regional Overview
Burkina Faso: Surge in political violence in the Center-East Ongoing offensives by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and counter-offensives by security forces and Volunteers for Defense of Homeland (VDP) in the Center-East region more than doubled in April compared to the previous month, with battles involving JNIM in the Center-East region the highest recorded so far in 2024.
Actor Profile: Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP)
This is the fourth installment in our Actor Profile series unpacking the latest data on armed group activity around the Sahel. All data are available for direct download. Definitions and methodology decisions are explained in the ACLED Codebook, and more information can be found in the ACLED Knowledge Base.
Regional Overview
Tchad : Les forces de sécurité tuent le chef de l’opposition politique Dans un contexte d’escalade des tensions à l’approche des élections présidentielles prévues en mai, les forces de sécurité ont tué le chef de l’opposition Yaya Dillo le 28 février lors d’une fusillade au siège de son parti dans la capitale, N’Djamena.
The Sahel: A Deadly New Era in the Decades-long Conflict - ACLED
The central Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — all of which are now ruled by military juntas — are engulfed in a decade-long regional jihadist insurgency driven by al-Qaeda’s Sahelian branch Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel). ACLED data illustrate the deteriorating security situation in central Sahel as the region hit another record year of violence.
Regional Overview
Burkina Faso and Mali: Fatality numbers surge amid large-scale militant attacks and military mass-atrocities Armed confrontations between Islamist militants and state forces intensified in December, with 79 armed clashes taking place in 15 regions of Burkina Faso and Mali, resulting in over 550 reported fatalities. In seven insurgent offensives, fighters captured large quantities of weapons and ammunition.
Regional Overview
Burkina Faso: Scaled-up military operations threaten civilians Violence escalated in Burkina Faso in November, with the number of reported fatalities reaching the highest levels since June 2023. The state-backed Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) militias conducted military operations against the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in several regions, including Boucle du Mouhoun, Center-East, Center-North, East, and Sahel.
Actor Profile: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)
The third installment in our actor profile series mapping armed group activity around the Sahel is based on a joint report by ACLED and GI-TOC. Read the full report for more on JNIM’s operations and organizational structure, with a focus on the group’s engagement with illicit economies and tactical use of economic warfare. All data are available for direct download.
Fact Sheet: Attacks on Civilians Spike in Mali as Security Deteriorates Across the Sahel
Violence targeting civilians has increased by 38% in Mali so far this year1 The main perpetrators of these attacks are JNIM (over 180 events, 33%), Malian state forces and/or the Wagner Group (nearly 160 events, 29%), and IS Sahel (nearly 90 events, 15%) Battles and attacks have spread to new locations in northern Mali amid joint military and Wagner Group operations and the resumption of hostilities with Algiers Accord signatory armed groups JNIM has also launched a new offensive, carrying...
Fact Sheet: Military Coup in Niger
Overview On 26 July 2023, the Presidential Guard in Niger launched a coup and detained President Mohamed Bazoum and his family. Senior officers from various branches of the defense and security forces (FDS) formed a junta, named the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), and announced the seizure of power on a televised broadcast.
Shifts in Wagner Group Operations Around the World
Drawing on the latest ACLED data, this report analyzes key trends in Wagner Group activity across the globe, with an in-depth focus on the mercenary organization’s operations in Ukraine, the Central African Republic, and Mali. The Wagner Group’s move towards a public profile in September 2022 was followed by an escalation of its operations in multiple major theaters of conflict, including the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, and Ukraine.
Conflict Watchlist 2023:
The Sahel is entering its second decade of conflict since the crisis began in 2012, gripped in an ever-growing cycle of political instability and escalating violence. In Burkina Faso and Mali, violence in 2022 reached the highest levels ever recorded by ACLED. The number of reported deaths from political violence increased by 77% in Burkina Faso and 150% in Mali from 2021, and the total number of conflict and demonstration events increased significantly in all three central Sahel countries.
Actor Profile: The Islamic State Sahel Province
Introduction: The Islamic State’s Sahelian Affiliate The Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) is a salafi-jihadist militant group and the Sahelian affiliate of the transnational Islamic State (IS) organization. It is primarily active in the border areas between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — known as the tri-state border area, or Liptako-Gourma — but it has also engaged in sporadic activity in Algeria, Benin, and Nigeria.
Les opérations du groupe Wagner en Afrique
Les déploiements du groupe Wagner dans le monde Bien que le groupe Wagner figure parmi les SMP les plus connues et les plus actives au monde, de nombreux détails à son sujet restent difficiles à confirmer du fait d’une structure organisationnelle délibérément opaque.
10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2022: The Sahel
Persistent, Expanding, and Escalating Instability Halfway through 2022, the crisis in the Sahel continues to worsen. Current trends indicate that instability in the central Sahel is persisting, expanding, and escalating, as ACLED outlined earlier this year. 2022 is on track to be the deadliest year for both Burkina Faso and Mali since the Sahel crisis began more than a decade ago.
Actor Profile: Dan Na Ambassagou
This is the first installment in our actor profile series unpacking the latest data on armed group activity around the Sahel. All data are available for direct download. Definitions and methodology decisions are explained in the Codebook. For more information, please check the full . Introduction: Self-Defense Hunter Militia of the Dogon Dan Na Ambassagou1 is a loyalist umbrella organization of Dogon village self-defense groups (HRW, 4 February 2020).
10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2022: The Sahel
Persistent, expanding, and escalating instability After a decade-long crisis, the Sahel entered 2022 amid escalating disorder, with levels of organized political violence increasing in 2021 compared to 2020. Conflict in the region has been largely driven by a jihadist insurgency centered in the states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which are most affected by the crisis. Each of these countries experienced significant instability in their own way in 2021.
‘Impossible’ to rescue: How three foreigners died in Burkina Faso
Fada N’Gourma, Burkina Faso – It has been months since Mohamed narrowly escaped an ambush in eastern Burkina Faso that killed three foreigners, yet the soldier cannot shake the guilt of being forced to leave them behind during a mission he says should never have gone ahead. “There was a terrorist base there,” Mohamed, whose real name we are not using to protect his safety, told Al Jazeera in October.
Mali: No Strings Attached? How Europe's Military Support for Mali Closes Its Eyes to Abuses
By Emmanuel Freudenthal, Patricia Huon, Héni Nsaibia, Youri Van Der Weide, Mamoudou Bolly Bamako — About this investigation: This article is the second in a two-part series exploring the humanitarian cost of the anti-jihadist conflict in Mali, and France’s broader military role in the Sahel. Read the first report: Uncovering the civilian toll of France’s anti-jihadist war in Mali.
How Europe’s military support for Mali closes its eyes to abuses
About this investigation: This article is the second in a two-part series exploring the humanitarian cost of the anti-jihadist conflict in Mali, and France’s broader military role in the Sahel. Read the first report: Uncovering the civilian toll of France’s anti-jihadist war in Mali. BAMAKO Boulkessi, once a large and thriving village in central Mali, is deserted – its orange, mud-brick houses now standing empty.
What is the real civilian toll of France’s anti-jihadist war in Mali?
Read more about... About this investigation: This article is the first in a two-part series exploring the humanitarian cost of the anti-jihadist conflict in Mali, and France’s broader military role in the Sahel. Read the second report: How Europe’s military support for Mali closes its eyes to abuses. It was a January afternoon when Madabbel Diallo heard fighter jets circling overhead. He paid them no mind: French aircraft regularly hunt jihadists in this part of central Mali.
Développements explosifs : la menace croissante des engins explosifs improvisés dans l'ouest du Niger | Acled Data
Durant les sept derniers mois, des groupes armés ont conduit une série d’attaques au moyen d’engins explosifs improvisés (EEI) dans l’ouest du Niger – une première dans cette zone en proie à l’insurrection. L’utilisation croissante d’EEI par l’État Islamique au Grand Sahara (EIGS) dans les régions de Tillabéri et de Tahoua au Niger indique une montée en puissance de l’insurrection régionale, suivant une trajectoire similaire aux conflits du Burkina Faso et du Mali.
Explosive Developments: The Growing Threat of IEDs in Western Niger
This report is also available in French. Over the past seven months, armed groups across Western Niger have executed a series of IED attacks – a first in the area’s ongoing insurgency. The increasing use of IEDs by the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) in the Tillabery and Tahoua regions of Niger indicates that the region’s insurgency is escalating and globalizing, following a similar trajectory to the conflicts in Burkina Faso and in Mali.
A Vicious Cycle: The Reactionary Nature of Militant Attacks in Burkina Faso and Mali
In recent weeks, a series of attacks on churches in Burkina Faso has received global media coverage (BBC, 2019). Jihadi militant groups recently accused of pitting ethnic communities against each other (HRW, 2019) are now also accused of trying to ignite a religious war (La Croix, 2019). While jihadists do play a crucial role in the conflict in the region, focusing solely on these groups ignores the state’s role in the brutality.
Heeding the Call: Sahelian Militants Answer Islamic State Leader al-Baghdadi's Call to Arms with a Series of Attacks in Niger
In the past week, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) launched a series of attacks across northern Tillabery in Niger. This string of attacks, including the deadliest ambush ever recorded in the Tillabery region, suggests that resumed transmissions between ISGS and the Islamic State (IS), as well as IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi personally urging attacks in the Sahel region, translated into action on the ground (BBC, 2019).
Comment le djihad armé se diffuse au Sahel
Ceux qui s’intéressent à la guerre qui sévit au Mali depuis 2012 ont entendu plusieurs fois le même récit : lorsque les djihadistes sont venus d’Algérie au Mali, au début des années 2000, ils n’étaient qu’une poignée et étaient hautement vulnérables. Leur première base était située dans la région de Tombouctou. Ils ont depuis prospéré militairement et financièrement, au point d’occuper les trois grandes provinces du nord du Mali – Kidal, Gao, Tombouctou – pendant l’essentiel de l’année 2012.
Insecurity in Southwestern Burkina Faso in the Context of an Expanding Insurgency
While much attention has focused on Burkina’s north and, more recently, east, insecurity has been brewing in the country’s southwestern regions, bordering the Ivory Coast, Mali, and Ghana. In the aftermath of several high-profile attacks in the capital city of Ouagadougou between 2016 and 2018, events in the landlocked West African country of Burkina Faso have gained more attention (ACLED, 2018).
US Special Operations Forces Are Quietly Expanding Their War In Tunisia
Last month, a U.S. Africa Command spokesperson confirmed in a Task & Purpose report that Marine Corps Raiders were involved in a fierce battle in 2017 in an unnamed North African country, where they fought beside partner forces against militants of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
US Special Operations Forces Are Quietly Expanding Their War In Tunisia
Last month, a U.S. Africa Command spokesperson confirmed in a Task & Purpose report that Marine Corps Raiders were involved in a fierce battle in 2017 in an unnamed North African country, where they fought beside partner forces against militants of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
The Fledgling Insurgency in Burkina's East
Since February this year, a new battlefront has emerged in eastern Burkina Faso (ACLED, 2018), in the Est Region situated along the borders with Niger, Benin, and Togo is regarded as a bastion of banditry. However, militancy is a new phenomenon in this part of the country, except the reported failed attempt by Al-Mourabitoun to establish a base in the Tapoa Forest, albeit on the Nigerien side of the border (Jeune Afrique, 2016).
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