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Articles by Henri Féron
How South Korea's defense plan against the North could actually help relations
Last week, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense released a new roadmap for fiscal years 2021 to 2025, promising to invest in new, high-tech defense capabilities to safeguard against the DPRK and other threats. These plans will certainly raise tensions. That said, its self-reliance elements may ironically improve the odds of a sustainable reconciliation.
(PDF) Duologue 3: North Korea (with Ankit Panda and Oskar Pietrewicz)
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Canada at the United Nations, What Next? A Conversation with Canada’s New Ambassador to the UN, Bob Rae
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s four-year campaign effort to secure a rotating seat on the UN Security Council ended in defeat in June. Canada received the support of 108 countries of a total 192 that voted on June 17 at the UN Headquarters in New York. Norway and Ireland, Canada’s two biggest contenders, received 130 and 128 votes, passing the required two-thirds majority of 128 ballots.
Kennan Cable No. 50: Arms Control in the COVID-19 Era: No Next Step without New START
While the world’s attention is riveted on the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, another urgent existential threat is quietly growing in the background: the steady termination of nuclear arms control treaties between the United States and the Russian Federation and the absence of new arms control negotiations. The robust programs and treaties that emerged in the decades following the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis have fallen by the wayside, leaving us with only one treaty limiting nuclear weapon stockpiles.
Donald Trump’s Three Mistakes on North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s January 1st speech at a Worker’s Party Central Committee meeting put the final nail in the coffin of President Trump’s “maximum pressure and engagement” policy.
A War with North Korea Would Bring Chaos to Millions. There Is Another Option.
On December 7, North Korea stated that denuclearization was off the table of negotiations with the United States, a couple weeks after it warned that “if the U.S. truly wants to keep on dialogue with the DPRK, it had better make a bold decision to drop its hostile policy towards the DPRK.” We could be facing a return to the “fire and fury” military escalation of 2017.
Why the United States should suspend joint military exercises with South Korea
North Korea on July 16 warned that it could resume testing inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM) if the United States and South Korea proceeded with planned joint military exercises. Ignoring the North’s warning risks throwing away what has in reality been a great deal for America. Holding or suspending the exercises only represents a small, temporary gain or loss for Washington and Seoul.
Crouching China, Hidden North Korea Agenda
Henri Féron Security, Asia Xi Jinping’s unprecedented show of support to Pyongyang has made clearer than ever the limits of a sanctions-based policy that would fail to include engagement. Since Beijing accounts for the quasi-totality of the trade and aid bound North, it can single-handedly make or break the effectivity of the U.S.-led sanctions regime.
Moon Jae-in: stuck between a rock and a hard place on North Korea
On June 15, 2000, the leaders of South and North Korea met for the first time and discussed what then seemed like imminent reunification. Nineteen years on, the dream of a united Korea slips further and further away. Worse, South Korea’s position between the North and the United States is becoming almost untenably precarious.
Why the US must conclude a proper treaty with North Korea
A year ago in Singapore, for the first time ever, a sitting American president met with a North Korean leader. After a particularly intense military escalation in 2017, the two promised “new relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.” Yet these relations appear today ready to collapse at any moment.
Seizing North Korean ships threatens to sink diplomacy
When the Department of Justice recently announced the seizure of a North Korean merchant vessel for breach of sanctions, it profoundly shook diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear crisis. Sadly, this unprecedented and exceptionally long-armed use of sanctions will not help disarm North Korea. Instead, it will only undermine the chances for a peaceful resolution of the current standoff.
Why North Korea Won't Succumb to 'Maximum Pressure'
Henri Féron Security, Asia How many more bets on North Korean surrender can America afford to go wrong? Why North Korea Won't Succumb to 'Maximum Pressure' There are two theories to explain why North Korea is now negotiating with the United States instead of pursuing its nuclear and missile tests. The first is that President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions finally managed to punch North Korean leader Kim Jong Un into the ropes.
Was Trump Right to Walk Away from Kim's Offer?
Henri Féron Security, Asia It depends on his reasons... Was Trump Right to Walk Away from Kim's Offer? After the Hanoi Summit ended without a deal, President Trump refused to clarify whether he would allow North Korea to retain nuclear weapons. This was symptomatic of the biggest difficulty in solving the crisis. There is intense pressure in the United States to achieve full disarmament, which constantly threatens to let the perfect become the enemy of the good.
Was Trump Right to Walk Away from Kim's Offer?
After the Hanoi Summit ended without a deal, President Trump refused to clarify whether he would allow North Korea to retain nuclear weapons. This was symptomatic of the biggest difficulty in solving the crisis. There is intense pressure in the United States to achieve full disarmament, which constantly threatens to let the perfect become the enemy of the good.
Peace With N. Korea Makes Sense Even Without Disarmament
Peace With N. Korea Makes Sense Even Without Disarmament
Why Peace With North Korea Makes Sense Even Without Disarmament
Henri Féron Security, Asia There is no convincing justification for the continued risk of nuclear war. Why Peace With North Korea Makes Sense Even Without Disarmament Rumors abound that President Donald Trump will soon declare the end of the war with North Korea. This is generally framed as a means to encourage the country to give up its nuclear weapons program. It is common sense that to convince a man to put a gun down, the man must first be convinced that no harm will come to him.
Why Peace With North Korea Makes Sense Even Without Disarmament
Rumors abound that President Donald Trump will soon declare the end of the war with North Korea. This is generally framed as a means to encourage the country to give up its nuclear weapons program. It is common sense that to convince a man to put a gun down, the man must first be convinced that no harm will come to him. The problem with this strategy is how difficult it is to reconcile with intelligence on the prospects for disarming North Korea.
North Korea and America’s Second Summit: Here’s What Henri Feron Thinks Will Happen
Editor’s Note: Want more ideas on what will happen at the summit? Check out all 76 expert opinions we gathered here. While the Singapore Summit signaled the end of “maximum pressure,” the second summit in February will signal the start of “engagement.” Working-level meetings and South Korean diplomacy have done all they could in opening a window of trust. Trump and Kim Jong-un will now define the great lines of normalization.
A Brief History of the US-ROK Combined Military Exercises
The militaries of every country conduct field and command post exercises to test their ability to perform missions dictated by their national leadership. Because three countries conduct such exercises regularly, numbering nearly two million soldiers in close proximity, the Korean peninsula experiences a heightened level of exercises—and tensions—that few other regions or countries share.
Reaction to the Singapore Summit
The only possible reaction to the summit is disappointment. We all knew that both leaders wanted a good show and a lot of positive talk, and there was no reason to think that they would fail to deliver. They delivered. The only real question was whether the American president would get more—specifically some clarity from the North Korean chairman on what he meant by denuclearization and when it might happen. We got none of that.
KJU Does Singapore (Three Days Without You, Thought I'd Forget) Volume I
KJU’s last observed appearance was his visit to a seafood restaurant in Pyongyang Kim Jong Un (Kim Cho’ng-u’n) departed on an Air China passenger plane for Singapore on the morning of June 10 (Sunday) for “the historic first summit meeting and talks” with Donald J. Trump, President of the United States. A ceremony was held at Pyongyang Airport prior to Jong Un’s departure.
A Peace Treaty for the Korean Peninsula: Will the Past be Prologue?
In their Panmunjom Declaration concluded at the recent summit between the leaders of North and South Korea, Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un agreed to pursue talks on a peace treaty as well as denuclearization. Although the agenda for the June 12, 2018 Trump-Kim summit in Singapore is a work in progress, there seems to be agreement that the two sides will begin discussions on a peace treaty to replace the armistice that ended the Korean War.
South Korean companies gearing up to rush north
These days, it seems that scarcely no South Korean company isn’t looking north. Hopes are high that with a diplomatic opening – if this time is different, which we really don’t know – North Korea will be open for business. And aside from some Chinese companies and entities, no other have the know-how and language skills to make investments in North Korea profitable.
Peace with Pyongyang: Legal Implications for the United States and South Korea
Reaching a peace treaty to end the Korean War is frequently interpreted as a North Korean “trap” rather than as the key to resolving the nuclear crisis and the decades-old Korean Question in general.[1] Many fear that it could legitimize the DPRK (North Korea) as a nuclear weapons state, split the alliance between the United States and the ROK (South Korea), or even trigger a reunification under North Korean leadership.
Personnel Adjustments at KPA General Political Bureau
Late last week, DPRK state media publicized two highly significant personnel changes to the Korean People’s Army [KPA] high command. In a report about Kim Jong Un’s (Kim Cho’ng-u’n) on-site visit to the Wo’nsan-Kalma tourism zone, state media identified General Kim Su Gil (Kim Su-kil) as Director of the KPA General Political Bureau (Department) [GPB] and Col. Gen. Son Chol Ju (So’n Ch’o’l-chu) as deputy director for organization for the GPB.
What if Sanctions Brought North Korea to the Brink? “Well, in 1941…” | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
Fluent in Korean and a specialist in North Korea’s economy, Mitsuhiro Mimura has visited North Korea 45 times since 1996, spending about a year on the ground there. After his most recent trip in August 2017, the senior researcher at Japan’s Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA) told me about the changes he’s seen in North Korea’s economy and society. The level of detail in his explanations surprised me.
Pyongyang’s Construction Boom: Is North Korea Beating Sanctions? | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
The construction boom in Pyongyang, along with other indicators of improved economic performance such as food production and foreign trade, provide further evidence of the ineffectiveness of current economic sanctions. The North Korean economy appears to be beating sanctions thanks to Chinese aid and trade, as well as the reallocation of conventional defense spending to the civilian economy.
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