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The Eastern Cape of South Africa experienced a severe and prolonged drought starting in 2015 (Archer et al., 2022; Mahlalela et al., 2020), and continued up to the sampling period of this experiment (October 2021, Fig. 1, Fig. S1, Table S1). This included below-average rainfall across all peak rainfall periods over much of the Eastern Cape province, including some of the driest winters recorded since 1981 in some areas along the western interior of the region (Archer et al., 2022) (Fig. 1).

Portions of this text were previously published as part of a preprint (https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1857617/v1). The study area is located in the Tama Hills, 30 km west of Tokyo (35°35′N, 139°25′E; Fig. 1). The mean annual precipitation at the nearby Hachioji meteorological station (13 km northwest of the study area) is 1,540 mm. The mean annual temperature is 14.8 °C, with a mean minimum of 3.4 °C (January) and mean maximum of 26.4 °C (August) (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2024).

Implications for thicket restoration Succulent thicket restoration currently utilises unrooted P. afra cuttings that are harvested indiscriminately and planted with limited regard for the wetter spring and autumn months (Mills et al., 2015). This approach has resulted in variable success, with survival ranging between zero % and almost 100% (mean survival estimated to be 28%) in large scale plantings (Mills & Robson, 2017).