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James Picerno

Metuchen
As seen in: The Capital Spectator, LinkedIn, MSN, Yahoo Finance, Yahoo Finance Singapore, Substack, AU Investing, Flipboard, Investing Canada, Investing Deutschland, Investing India and
Editor, US Business Cycle Risk Report, CapitalSpectator.com, author (Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R), dir of analytics:The Milwaukee Co
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Articles

The US Expansion Continues, but Its Foundations Are Uneven

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By James Picerno
| The Capital Spectator
The US expansion just marked its six‑year anniversary, and the odds still lean toward growth holding up in the near term. Yet the backdrop is anything but serene. Geopolitical flashpoints, economic crosscurrents, and a thicket of slow‑burn risks continue to accumulate beneath the surface. So how is the economy actually performing?
Open in Who Shared View Duplicates (2) Issue with article?

Gulf's Gray-Zone Conflict Is Becoming A Market Stress Test

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By James Picerno
| Seeking Alpha
Jul 13, 2026, 10:04 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The Middle East conflict is a fire that seems to die down, only to flare up from embers that continue to burn. Reviewing the major asset classes since the first US strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 reminds us that the risk appetite was dented but not broken, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close. The main question for markets is bound up with the outlook for inflation.
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Gulf’s Gray‑Zone Conflict Is Becoming a Market Stress Test

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By James Picerno
| The Capital Spectator
The Middle East conflict is a fire that seems to die down, only to flare up from embers that continue to burn. Those embers burned brighter over the weekend as the ongoing cycle of attacks between the US and Iran continued. The military strikes of the past week have had little effect on markets to date, but it’s an open question how a low‑grade war will affect investor sentiment if the fighting drags on for weeks or months.
Open in Who Shared View Duplicates (3) Issue with article?
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