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Articles by Jarrett Blanc
Iran: Turbulent but Resilient
Iran’s religious autocracy is suffering through a severe coronavirus outbreak, a shrinking economy, regional chaos and the death of General Soleimani – why is it still so resilient? Four decades later, Iran’s hardline regime faces enormous challenges. The nation is struck by one of the world’s most severe outbreaks of COVID-19, killing thousands of its citizens – including prominent parliamentarians and government officials.
Conflict Zones in the Time of Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means
Table of Contents Introduction by Jarrett Blanc, Frances Z. Brown, and Benjamin Press As the coronavirus pandemic approaches the one-year mark, its toll on global health, economies, and politics almost everywhere has been immense. Yet it has hit fragile states and ongoing conflict contexts particularly hard, wreaking a host of punishing effects.
Why Iran and Its Proxies Remain Undeterred by the Pandemic - Conflict Zones in the Time of Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means
Table of Contents The Islamic Republic of Iran and its regional proxies have navigated the coronavirus pandemic with a combination of denial, deflection, and determination. They first attempted to conceal the virus’s outbreak, then blamed their adversaries for spreading it, and eventually steeled themselves to continue the path of “resistance,” despite the economic hardship.
How the Pandemic Is Amplifying the Impact of Conflict in Syria - Conflict Zones in the Time of Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means
Table of Contents Across all of Syria’s fragmented territories, the coronavirus pandemic is running unchecked. Weak governance, competing authorities, and a deepening economic crisis continue to hamper the country’s response to a severely underreported pandemic. A scaling down in the intensity of the conflict has not improved the pandemic response. Rather, Syria finds itself suffering through a globe-spanning winter wave of growing caseloads.
Israelis and Palestinians Struggle With COVID-19 and With Each Other - Conflict Zones in the Time of Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means
Table of Contents In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, Israel and the occupied territories were marked by some cooperation between the relevant Israeli and Palestinian authorities aimed at stemming the spread of the virus. But since then, conditions have deteriorated substantially. As expected, the common purpose of fending off the virus has neither resulted in a political breakthrough between occupier and occupied nor redirected new energy toward peacemaking.
The Pandemic’s Ripple Effects Are Among Libya’s Many Miseries - Conflict Zones in the Time of Coronavirus: War and War by Other Means
Table of Contents In the months since the coronavirus began spreading to Libya, the pandemic has rippled across the country’s overlapping afflictions of civil war, political divisions, economic collapse, and humanitarian suffering. In some ways, the pandemic’s effects have further entrenched the country’s rival militia factions, while in other ways the public health crisis has given rise to nascent grassroots activists determined to combat the pandemic’s ill effects.
Scores killed by latest car bomb in Afghanistan - The Levant News
The Levant 7 seconds ago News, Terrorism, World Attackers set off a truck bomb in Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar province on Saturday, killing at least 15 people and wounding dozens, according to provincial officials, as violence continues in the war-torn nation despite peace talks taking place in Qatar.
Chemical inspectors say not enough evidence to convict Syria - The Levant News
Stockpiles of chemical weapons The Levant 2 hours ago News, Syria war, World The global chemical weapons watchdog on Friday said it had been unable to determine whether banned toxic agents had been used in attacks on two Syrian towns in 2016 and 2018 that injured dozens of people. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said that sample analysis, data examination and witness interviews had not enabled it to establish whether poisonous munitions had been used on Nov.
The World Gave the United States One Do-Over
In September 2003, I moved from Afghanistan to Iraq, where I would spend a year and a half establishing new electoral institutions and helping Iraqi authorities manage their first elections. The job was demanding, and the environment was difficult—each of the hotels that housed us were eventually attacked—leaving little time or energy for anything else. Other than work, my main activity was to obsessively track U.S. politics.
U.S. Middle Class: On Sanctions and Setting Priorities - The Day After
An overreliance on economic sanctions has left essential questions for U.S. foreign policy unanswered. Economic sanctions are one of the United States’ most frequently used foreign policy tools. And they work to some degree. They can signal disapproval, impose economic hardship on target countries, and scare off third-country firms fearful of losing access to U.S. financial markets. While sanctions are often tactically successful, their track record in achieving strategic objectives is mixed.
The legacy of the Iraq sanctions regime is alive and well in US foreign policy today - Responsible Statecraft
Kirkuk, Iraq. December 2005 (Photo credit: serkan senturk / Shutterstock.com) The economic sanctions imposed on Iraq by the United Nations Security Council, from 1990 to 2003, may well lay claim to be the worst humanitarian catastrophe ever imposed in the name of global governance. The unconscionable human damage done by those sanctions is routinely dismissed as the unintended consequence of a well-intentioned policy from the past, which has since given way to more nuanced and humane measures.
May 8, 2018: A day that will live in acrimony - Responsible Statecraft
Photo credit: Lev Radin / Shutterstock.com Two years ago, on May 8, 2018, the Trump administration withdrew unilaterally from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly called the Iran nuclear deal, and then imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran.
Pressuring Iran Is not the answer to the US’s Middle East woes - Responsible Statecraft
Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo delivers remarks at the United Against Nuclear Iran Summit in New York City on September 25, 2018. [State Department photo] The United States has for decades been reliant on Israel and a host of autocratic Arab regimes to solidify a U.S.-led security order in the Middle East. This order has proven to be unsustainable as key U.S. allies have weakened or been toppled in popular uprisings over the years.
Can Pompeo trap a future President Biden in Trump’s self-imposed Iran crisis? – Responsible Statecraft
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo does not seem confident that Donald Trump will be reelected in November. While his political consultant advises Republican senate candidates “don’t defend Trump” on his response to the coronavirus, Pompeo is spending his time pretending the U.S. is still part of the Iran nuclear deal at the United Nations in a bad faith and costly effort which may be a sneaky way to limit a future President Biden’s options for return to the agreement.
Iran in Crisis: The Triple Threat of Pandemic, Sanctions and Conflict
Uncategorized April 23, 2020 An Altamar podcast interview with Jarrett Blanc Senior Fellow in Geoeconomics and Strategy at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Iranians, some wearing protective masks amid the COVID-19 pandemic walk past closed shops at the Grand Bazaar market in Iran. Under the weight of severe economic sanctions, unemployment is growing, inflation is rising and GDP faces a 6% contraction in Iran.
Coronavirus in Conflict Zones: A Sobering Landscape
Table of Contents Already, the coronavirus pandemic has taken a seismic toll on the public health and economic well-being of many countries. As it spreads beyond the higher-income and higher-governance-capacity countries where it first hit hard, and into developing or fragile states, its consequences are likely to be even more profound.
Coercion in the Time of the Coronavirus
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is infatuated with the power of economic sanctions. It has used economic coercion to act forcefully and unilaterally and to achieve tactical aims such as dramatic reductions in Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports. But the administration has not been able to turn tactical advantages into strategic accomplishments.
What Europe’s Dispute about Iran’s Nuclear Program Means
On January 14, 2020, just shy of the fourth anniversary of the full implementation of the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA), the UK, France, and Germany triggered the dispute resolution mechanism (DRM), a tool created by the deal to address concerns about noncompliance. Opponents of the nuclear deal in the United States crowed that this was a European move to restore its traditional alignment with the United States against Iran.
Opinion | We need to take the best deal we can get in Afghanistan
Members of the Taliban delegation arrive for talks in Moscow on May 28, 2019. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP) Opinion by Jarrett Blanc August 26, 2019 Jarrett Blanc is a senior fellow in the Geoeconomics and Strategy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was the deputy special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan from 2012 to 2014, responsible for U.S.-Taliban negotiations, and was principal deputy special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan from 2014 to 2015.
What Trump Really Just Told the Iranians: He’s Out of Ideas.
AP Photo/Alex Brandon Washington And The World The administration’s new Iran sanctions are symbolic. But that’s not the problem—it’s the message they’re sending. The Trump administration’s announcement this week of plans to impose new sanctions targeting Iranian leaders and organizations—including the Supreme Leader and his office, military commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif—will have little practical effect, according to sanctions experts.
The Imminent Iran Nuclear Crisis, Atomic Archive and Path Forward
Read the Commentary Introduction On June 27, Iran will – by its own account – violate the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by exceeding the amount of low enriched uranium hexafluoride (LEUF6) gas that it is permitted to stockpile pursuant to the agreement. The 300 kilograms limit was set in the JCPOA to create a long lead time for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon if it chose to exit the JCPOA and embark on such a path.
In the Gulf of Oman, the U.S. Must Lead from Behind
Kamran Jebreili/AP Photo A U.S. Navy patrol boat leaves a U.S. Navy 5th Fleet base near Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. The United States has accused Iran of attacking civilian commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman, just outside the Persian Gulf—four ships in May, and two last week. There is evidence, even if inconclusive, to support the claim, and Iran or its proxies are the most likely culprit by simple inference.
Now or Never: America is on the Clock to Remove Troops from Afghanistan
Afghanistan has entered a period of intense political uncertainty. In December, President Donald Trump reportedly ordered the Pentagon to draw up plans for drawdown options including a complete troop withdrawal from the country. By March, bilateral talks between the United States, led by Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, and the Taliban had “agreed in draft” on counterterrorism assurances the Taliban will provide to the United States and on U.S. troop withdrawal, addressing Washington’s key objectives.
Waivers for Civil Nuclear Cooperation with Iran are a No-Brainer
The Trump administration is busy ratcheting up pressure on Iran: Last week, the president made clear he is going to try to use sanctions threats to force Iranian oil sales to zero. Earlier this month, he announced the designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organization. Now, members of the administration are debating whether to renew sanctions waivers for European, Chinese, and Russian cooperation with Iran on civil nuclear projects.
Latest Afghan-Taliban peace talks fall apart before they begin
Stories Expert Voices Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. Photo: Afghan Presidency Press Office / Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images) An informal conference between Afghan and Taliban negotiators in Doha this Saturday was postponed indefinitely after the Taliban rejected President Ashraf Ghani’s list of delegates, leaving intra-Afghan discussions further behind even as direct U.S.–Taliban security talks move forward.
Congress must seriously rethink current Russia sanctions policy
There is a commendable bipartisan urge within Congress to rebuke the Trump administration for failing to articulate a comprehensive strategy for countering the “devil may care” foreign policy of the Kremlin.
Risks of terrorist designation on Iran's Guard Corps outweigh rewards
The designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) imposes few if any new restrictions. As President Trump noted, though, it is technically an "unprecedented" action, since the label was intended for non-state actors.
U.S. Sanctions on Russia: Congress Should Go Back to Fundamentals
Introduction Congress is slowly ratcheting up the pressure on two popular targets: the Kremlin and U.S. President Donald Trump’s well-advertised desire to “get along” with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. The political logic is all too easy to understand. Anger and distrust toward Russia crosses party lines in Washington, and there has been no softening in Moscow’s increasingly assertive foreign policy.
U.S.-India missile defense strategy could threaten Afghan peace process
The U.S. is ostentatiously promoting cooperation with India on ballistic missile defense, highlighting it in the 2019 Missile Defense Review as a “key element” of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Why it matters: Pakistan is certain to see any such cooperation as a move against its nuclear force.
Trump's Risking Financial Disaster for America
Burhan Ozbilici/AP Photo President Donald Trump’s Iran policy has been reckless as regards Iran—it all but invites Tehran to return to an unconstrained nuclear program, and it reduces U.S. credibility to bargain on other contentious issues. But it has been far more reckless on the far more consequential matter of America’s relationships with allies and partners and especially the U.S.’s central role in the world financial system.
Congress can improve sanctions policy, but Rusal is a poor target
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will appear before the chairs of seven House committees in a classified briefing Thursday afternoon on the administration’s decision to lift sanctions against Russian aluminum giant Rusal. The proposed deal would reduce oligarch Oleg Deripaska’s ownership stake and control of the company (Deripaska has been linked to Paul Manafort).
Congressional-Executive Relations After the Midterms
On November 6, 2018, U.S. voters turned out in historic numbers and returned control of the House of Representatives to the Democratic Party for the first time since 2010. When the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2019, President Trump will, for the first time, be confronted with an enabled political opposition with powerful tools. The Democratic House will be torn between a number of competing but intensely compelling priorities. They will want to influence current policy decisions.
Unanswered Questions About U.S. Policy Toward Iran
On November 5, 2018, the United States is taking another step toward withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal by re-imposing sanctions on non-American companies doing business with Tehran. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin have made a number of announcements over the last week to clarify these sanctions, but many important questions remain outstanding.
Financial Crimes and Punishment
On Sept. 30, Noor-ul-Haq Qadri, Pakistan’s minister of religious affairs, brazenly shared a stage with Hafiz Saeed, the founder of the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, who has been subject to United Nations sanctions dating back a decade thanks to his role in planning and supervising the November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. Incidents like this one are emblematic of the policies that have run Pakistan afoul of financial crimes watchdog groups.
With U.S. sanctions looming, China loosens trade ties with Iran
Why it matters: China is Iran’s largest oil importer and most important trading partner. Because China is better insulated from U.S. sanctions than other major importers, Iran could avoid the worst economic effects of U.S. sanctions if China continues buying its oil. But if China cuts back, Iran will likely pull out of the nuclear deal, leaving it free to resume an unrestricted nuclear program. On Nov. 4, the U.S. will re-impose sanctions on Iran that had been lifted under the Iran nuclear deal.
Fall Khashoggi: Härter als Sanktionen – vier Maßnahmen, um die Saudis zu bestrafen - WELT
Der Jemen ist der Ort, an dem die Saudis am ehesten für amerikanischen Einfluss anfällig sind. In dem Krieg, den das Königreich dort an der Spitze einer internationalen Koalition führt, sind schon zehntausende Menschen getötet worden, Millionen haben ihre Heimat verloren, und im Land droht eine der größten Hungersnöte der letzten 100 Jahre. Die USA haben die Saudis sowohl unter Obama als auch unter Trump direkt unterstützt.
U.S. and Gulf states warn Iran and Taliban with new sanctions
Between the lines: These financial sanctions are unlikely to have a strategic effect on Afghanistan’s civil war, as the Taliban don't depend heavily on Iranian support. At the same time, however, the U.S.’ Gulf allies have been, at best, haphazard in their imposition of previous sanctions on the Taliban: If they follow through now on sending a real warning, the Taliban might listen. On Oct.
As sanctions loom, Iran given more time to combat terrorist financing
Why it matters: The U.S., which currently holds the FATF presidency and wants to impose “unprecedented financial pressure” on Iran, almost certainly opposed the extension. Washington’s inability to carry the debate demonstrates the diplomatic shortcomings of its unilateral approach to Iran. On Oct.
Why the U.S. Needs to Punish Saudi Arabia
Why the U.S. Needs to Punish Saudi Arabia Sanctions are a blunt instrument. Here's what the U.S. can do instead to hold Jamal Khashoggi's killers accountable.
How to Punish Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has now admitted that Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2. The story: He was killed in a fist fight with 15 intelligence officials sent to interrogate him – a claim that is implausible and would not be exculpatory even if true.
Despite fraught ties, U.S. needs Turkey's cooperation on Khashoggi
What’s new: The Trump administration now needs to work closely with Turkey to address the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Virginia resident and Washington Post contributor who disappeared from the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.
Despite Fraught Ties, U.S. Needs Turkey’s Cooperation on Khashoggi
In August, President Trump sanctioned Turkish Minister of Justice Abdulhamit Gul and Minister of the Interior Suleyman Soylu in an as-yet unsuccessful effort to secure the release of an American clergyman implausibly accused of involvement in the failed 2016 Turkish coup attempt. It was the beginning of an unprecedented economic attack against a NATO ally.
The United States Makes One Smart Move on Russia Sanctions
The U.S. government has been on a sad, year-long odyssey of mismanaged Russia sanctions since President Donald Trump, with a display of great reluctance and personal pique, signed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in August 2017. There are reasons to sanction Russia—its meddling in U.S. and other elections, its adventurism abroad, its domestic human rights record—but not every sanction is fit to every purpose.
No firm progress made at Trump-chaired meeting of UN Security Council
Why it matters: Historically, such a forum allows a U.S. president to put a difficult issue on the international agenda and push other countries toward progress, however uncomfortable the decisions involved. The meeting Trump led did little to advance solutions to national security challenges, other than underscore U.S. isolation on Iran (despite valiant efforts from President Macron of France to highlight areas of agreement).
Here's Why World Leaders Are Laughing at Trump
Here's Why World Leaders Are Laughing at Trump His hapless Iran strategy is just one example of a deeply confused foreign policy.
Here’s Why World Leaders Are Laughing at Trump
Getty Images President Donald Trump’s visit to the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week has been … confused.
What Would a U.S. War-or Peace-with Iran mean for China?
In an unprecedentedly aggressive tweet on July 22, Donald Trump warned Iran that if it threatens the United States again, it “will suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before.” The following day, Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton, who has repeatedly argued for bombing Iran before he took office in April 2018, also issued a statement claiming that Trump told him “if Iran does anything at all to the negative, they will pay a price like few...
Memo to Trump: Iran Isn't North Korea
The president's Twitter fire and fury' won't work on the Islamic Republic.
U.S. pressures other nations on U.N. resolution
With help from Sarah Owermohle and Jennifer Haberkorn U.S. PRESSURES OTHER COUNTRIES ON UNITED NATIONS RESOLUTION — A global declaration to fight tuberculosis is nearly complete, but some key language on affordable access to medicines has been removed after intense U.S. pressure, our colleagues at POLITICO Europe report.
Auto industry braces for impact
AUTO INDUSTRY BRACES FOR IMPACT — President Trump again on Monday threatened to slap 20 percent tariffs on imported automobiles and auto parts ahead of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s visit to the White House on Wednesday accusing the EU of being “very tough” on the U.S. “They’re coming in to see me Wednesday and we’ll see if we can work something out,” Trump said at a White House event.
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