Independent Real Estate Market Analyst. Former: Real Estate Agent, Forbes .com Contributor, Int'l Ag Trade Economist at USDA, Ag Attaché U.S. Embassy in Paris
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Articles by John Wake
Phoenix Home Prices Increased 33% in 1 Year!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. RealEstateDecoded.com Prices are not adjusted for inflation. 2026 is January through August. "More than 500 complaints about real estate fraud, mostly deed fraud, were filed with the Arizona Attorney General's Office and Arizona Department of Real Estate since 2024" azcentral.com axios.com The policy change will raise property taxes for short-term rental owners azcaptialtimes.com How the sausage is made.
Boring AND Scary! Phoenix Home Prices
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. The median price of single-family homes sold in metro Phoenix is boring. It’s been essentially flat for 4 years. Arizona Real Estate Notebook But when you look at the median sold price PER SQUARE FOOT in metro Phoenix, it's scary. Single-family home prices are down 10% from May 2022.
Cory Wake, CFA’s Post
I had more fun drafting this post than any of Silver Wave Capital’s closing announcements. As a kid it’s hard to appreciate a parent’s accomplishments in real time. You admire your parents, but you aren’t 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘥 of them, exactly. Pride requires that you understand the obstacles they overcome, and the traits they hold. Their work ethic, their unique talents. As an adult, it’s different. In recent years I watched my Dad do something extraordinarily hard.
Arizona Real Estate Notebook
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Year-to-date, the number of single-family homes listed for sale in the Phoenix MLS that were cancelled or expired is down 6% from last year at this time. Home sellers are a bit more likely to sell. The listing success rate this February was 77%. That's decent. Last February, it was 75%, so it's a little stronger this year so far. ResiClub azcentral.com azcentral.com smartasset Although I haven't seen one on the streets.
Missing-Middle Homes were Mini-Apartments. They were Replaced by Full-Size Apartments.
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Townhouse/condo construction is mainly in luxury areas today. In other areas, they just build apartments. Only 4% of new homes sold in 2024 in metro Phoenix were townhouses/condos. And the typical new townhouse/condo is NOT cheaper than the typical new single-family home.
Missing-Middle Housing was NOT Cheaper!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Denser housing was NOT at all cheaper. In 2025, the median price of new townhouses/condos in metro Phoenix is running $80,000 MORE than the median price of new single-family homes. TSMC. “It represents an investment of $165 billion, making it one of the most expensive undertakings on earth.” nytimes Applies to land within the unincorporated parts of the County.
Dear Home Sellers, If your house isn't under contract now...
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. New contracts tank between Thanksgiving and Christmas.$480,000 The slowest month for closings is January, which is mostly houses that went under contract in December. Link If months of supply increase next year – which looks likely – home prices are very likely to fall. Link Down 2% in September 2025, according to the latest Case-Shiller data.
$480,000 - November Median Home Price the Same as November 2024 and 2023
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Phoenix area. The median single-family home sold price in November was about the same as in November 2024, and in November 2023. Link If in the first several months of next year, New Listings hitting the market, and Solds are similar to this year, the supply of homes for sale would increase again, and that would put a LOT of downward pressure on home prices because the supply of homes for sale is already high.
Phoenix Home Prices Still Flat
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. If the number of homes hitting the market jumps again like it did during the first months of last year, the supply of homes for sale will increase from its already high level. That could push home prices over the edge. Link The Phoenix median single-family home sold price in October was about the same as 3 years ago.
Phoenix Median Home Price Jumps Up $10,000
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Sorry for no newsletters the last month! Now, I’m back in town. Link For example, the super-luxury market in Phoenix is HOT, according to The Cromford Report. September = 6 August = 0 July = 1 I expect prices to fall next month. It’s just a question of whether it’s a little or a lot. We have the highest supply of homes for sale in metro Phoenix since 2011 (again).
Home Prices FLAT for 3 Years
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Same as August 2024 1% above August 2023 1% below August 2022 Arizona Real Estate Notebook Phoenix home prices did NOT skyrocket in 2021 because people bought a lot more homes to live in (primary residences). In 2021, they actually bought FEWER homes to live in! BUT landlords bought more than DOUBLE the number of homes in 2021. Supply was NOT the problem. An earthquake didn’t reduce the supply of homes in 2021.
Worst June home price appreciation for Phoenix since 2007 and 2008
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Phoenix home prices are very likely to fall every month until next year, just looking at past seasonality. Denial – “My house is worth a lot more than that!” Anger – “That real estate agent isn’t doing any work at all to sell my house!” Bargaining – “Okay, if I can just break even.” Depression – “I was a fool to buy this house.” Acceptance – “Its not my fault. I don’t control the market.
Lowest Phoenix Inflation-Adjusted Home Price Since 2021!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Phoenix's real, inflation-adjusted median home sold price in July was the lowest since 2021. Click on graph to see interactive version. Phoenix supply of homes for sale is up 34% from last year at this time, and is DOUBLE what it was in 2023.
Case-Shiller Home Prices - Real U.S. Prices Up 1%
FYI, I plan to start putting video comments about the real estate market here on Substack. I got the camera. Just gotta start doing it. Real Estate Decoded is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Real home prices down 4% in Tampa, and 2% in San Francisco! Click on the image to go to my website where you can look at the 20 metros individually. Recession. The home market is in a very delicate balance.
First 6 Months of 2025 - Phoenix Housing Market
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. The number of single-family homes hitting the market was a lot higher in the first 3 months of 2025 than in 2024. But then the number of single-family homes hitting the market slowed down in April, May & June and was almost back to 2024 levels. The number of single-family homes sold in the first 3 months of 2025 was almost identical to 2024, but sales in April, May & June were a bit higher in 2025 than in 2024.
June Home Price Lowest in 4 Years
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. The Phoenix median single-family home sold price in June was the lowest for a June in 4 years. Adjusted for inflation, it was the lowest in 5 years. Interactive version According to the Cromford Report, home prices in cities with a higher proportion of luxury homes are doing better than the rest of the valley. The median price of single-family homes in Scottsdale, for instance, is up 4.3% over last year.
Real USA Home Prices Flat for 1 Year & 19% Above 2006 Peak
By John Wake Link to interactive Case-Shiller charts Changes in per capita income is probably the second most important determinant of changes in home prices. But where mortgage rates are uniform nationally, changes in per capita income can vary a lot from metro to metro. From 1990, nominal per capita income was up nearly 5x in San Francisco but up only 3x in Cleveland. Link. Scroll down to chart AEI Here’s a zoning change that would make homes more affordable, permanently, for free.
Price Rebounds $10,000 in May after $19,000 Fall in April!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. After a surprisingly large fall of $19,000 in April, the median single-family home sold price jumped $10,000 in May. Remember, the supply of all homes for sale is the highest since 2011, so there’s a lot of downside risk to prices if supply keeps increasing. There are almost 50% more homes for sale now than last year at this time.
Home Prices Fell $18,600 in April!
By John Wake Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. A surprising $18,600 fall in 1 month in the median single-family home sold price in the Phoenix area MLS from $495,000 in March to $476,392 in April. April is usually one of the strongest months for home price gains. But it is only one month. Prices might rebound some in May. But the outlook isn’t good for prices when the supply of homes for sale is the highest since 2011.
9 Free Ways to Increase Arizona Home Ownership
• Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Here’s an excerpt from a piece I’ve been working on. What Arizona can do to help stabilize house prices, which would increase Arizona home ownership, family wealth, and economic growth, all for FREE. In 2021, investors bought 6,800 more homes than in 2019. In 2021, live-in home owners bought 2,900 FEWER homes than in 2019. Live-in home buyers did NOT cause house prices to skyrocket in 2021. Investor buyers did.
9 Free Ways to Increase Arizona Home Ownership
It’s true that getting building permits is a huge pain in the neck and the process can be improved, but it’s a myth that zoning is what caused house prices to skyrocket during Covid. More supply would be great but, in fact, the U.S. has never had more housing per person. Whenever you read that the U.S. housing supply is short X million homes, check their math. They don’t look at the number of homes and the number of people.
Largest Supply of Homes for Sale in Phoenix since 2014
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. h/t @Woningnieuws But supply might finally be starting to level off. Link Link Link Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive versions. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above). This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix.
Why the Supply of Homes for Sale is Increasing
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Up 43% from Last Year at this Time Highest in 10 Years (since 2014) Rising when Usually Flat or Falling The number of homes sold so far this year is the same as last year. BUT the number of homes hitting the market is up a total of 18% from last year. So, the supply of homes for sale is increasing every week. I’m trying to figure out why more people are trying to sell their homes this year. What do you think? Leave a comment.
42% More Supply than Last Year!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. I was interviewed by Mark Brodie for “The Show” on KJZZ! Notice that supply is usually flat or falling this time of year, not increasing like this year. But also be aware that the metro Phoenix population is about 20% more than 10 years ago. According to ResiClub. Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive versions.
Since February is Black History Month here are 12 "Secrets" of U.S. Black Home Ownership
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40% More Supply than Last Year!
By John Wake Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. But first, I was interviewed on this podcast last week and it has 145,000 views so far! It’s NOT because home sales are down. The number of homes sold so far is the same as last year and the year before. It’s because the number of homes hitting the market is up 14% from last year and up 27% from the year before. The questions are, who is selling, why, and how long will it continue?
Real, Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices Still 9% Above 2006 Peak
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Phoenix supply of homes for sale already higher than highest level last year. Now highest since 2016. If the supply for sale peaks this spring like it often does, it won’t be crazy high. But if it continues increasing fast, we could enter “crazy high” territory by summer. 2016 wasn’t a bad year but if supply continues increasing fast… Was it because live-in home owners bought a ton more homes in 2021 and drove up prices?
Supply Increasing a LOT Faster than Last Year!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Supply jumped and we didn’t get rid of zoning last month. Zoning is a scapegoat the real estate industrial complex blames for high home prices. azfamily It looks like builders have plenty of permits. If they’re not building more now, permits aren’t the reason.
Phoenix Median Home Price Up 6% in 1 Year
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Phoenix home sold prices in December for the typical sized single-family home (1000-2000 square feet shown below) is flattish since Sept 2022. But for larger homes (3000-4000 square feet shown below) prices set a record last month. The months supply of condos for sale in the Phoenix MLS is super high. Months supply of single-family homes is also very high to but not as crazy high as condos.
Phoenix Supply of Homes for Sale has Peaked for the Year
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Most likely the supply of Phoenix homes for sale this year peaked 2 weeks ago. But it’s still similar to this time of year in 2015 and 2016, “normalish” years. Link Since new permits have been so high why hasn’t supply jumped up and home prices fallen? Despite what the YIMBYs constantly say, building permits and zoning are not what’s constraining new home supply.
Phoenix Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices the Same as 2 Years Ago
By John Wake Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. • Higher than in 2005 • Same as 2 years ago and 3.5 years ago The number of homes we have listed for sale in the MLS in Phoenix is “normalish” although we do have more people living here than 10, 20 years ago. Not a ton of downside price risk at these levels but the supply of homes for sale is increasing pretty fast. 37% more permits granted than single-family homes sold in metro Phoenix 2020 to 2022.
I Got Interviewed by AZFamily TV! Watch It!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. I was so nervous I forgot to mention ArizonaRealEstateNotebook.com! :-) The supply of homes for sale in Phoenix just passed 2015. It should be leveling off or falling this time of year but supply resumed increasing fast. Will it continue increasing fast? Suggests 2025 could be another year of rising supply of homes for sale. Why didn’t skyrocketing home prices cause any increase in new home construction in Phoenix?
Scariest Phoenix Real Estate Charts - Happy Halloween!
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Interactive charts Prices aren’t falling. The Phoenix median sold price in October was the same as in February 2022, over 2 and a half years ago = $480,000. Not because of zoning but because builders don’t want to. Pinal County is the southeastern part of metro Phoenix. A ton of new single-family homes are being built out there but not “missing middle” homes. Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive versions.
Scariest Charts of the Week
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Next Week Could Tell Us Where the Phoenix Housing Market is Headed
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Next week’s data could tell us where the Phoenix market is headed. Will the number of homes for sale in the Phoenix MLS continue increasing fast? OR, will it start leveling off like in 2015 and 2016, and other “normal” years? New home prices in Phoenix were up $125,000 (36%) from 2020 to 2023 but new home supply was the same in 2023 as in 2020! What’s going on? It wasn’t because builders couldn’t get building permits.
IF supply continues to increase this November…
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. The number of homes for sale in the Phoenix MLS continues to increase faster than usual. The supply for sale usually flattens out in November. IF supply continues to increase this November, that would be a huge sign the trend will continue into 2025. A lot of surprises here! azcentral World’s Largest Indoor Pickleball Facility to Open in Scottsdale Link 40 pickleball courts at one location seems like a LOT.
The Free & Easy Way To Make Homes More Affordable That No One Talks About
As usual, presidential candidates want new tax breaks for home buyers to increase affordability and home ownership. That never works. They should do the exact opposite and end the old tax breaks landlords get on single-family homes and condos. Sure, new tax breaks for first-home buyers work temporarily but they eventually lead to higher home prices so all later home buyers are worse off. Economists say those tax breaks get “monetized” or “capitalized” into higher home prices.
The Easiest Way To Make Homes More Affordable
As usual, presidential candidates want new tax breaks for home buyers to increase affordability and home ownership. That never works. They should do the exact opposite and end the old tax breaks landlords get on single-family homes and condos. Sure, new tax breaks for first-home buyers work temporarily but they eventually lead to higher home prices so all later home buyers are worse off. Economists say those tax breaks get “monetized” or “capitalized” into higher home prices.
Supply of Homes for Sale in Phoenix Still Increasing Fast
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. The Fed lowering interest rates hasn’t had an impact… yet. Nominal prices, not adjusted for inflation. ZERO upward home price momentum. Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive versions. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above). This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix.
I LOVE this song because the 21st night of September means summer is almost over.
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. "The lawsuit states that “approximately 70% of multifamily apartment units listed in the Phoenix metropolitan area are owned, operated, or managed by companies that have contracted with RealPage for ‘Revenue Management.’”" "in 2018, the majority of renters in Maricopa County paid between $500 and $1,500 per month.
Map of Phoenix Short-Term Rentals
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Airbnb, VRBO, etc. Link to Map Link Still increasing despite falling mortgage rates, at least for now. Starting on January 1, Arizona landlords will no longer be charged a “sales” tax by Arizona cities. Landlords typically add the tax onto the rent the renters pay. Will tenants actually pay less in rent or will landlords just jack up their rents. I decided to run a Twitter poll to see what some people think.
Paradise Valley Home Sold For $32,388,888
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. New 15,516 square foot home on 5 acres in Paradise Valley sold last month for $32,388,888. Phoenix median single-family home sold price in August 2024 was very similar to August 2023 and August 2022. All upward price momentum is long gone. Phoenix real estate market “normal” but softening when we look at the number of homes for sale.
Chapter 6 of "The Great Housing Hijack"
“For undeveloped property there are often many feasible projects that could be built, with the one project that generates the highest risk-adjusted residual value being the highest and best use at that time.
Is the Autumn Supply Shift Starting Early?
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Is the autumn shift toward increasing numbers of homes for sale in Phoenix starting early this year? We’ll know in a few weeks. “Phoenix continues to outrank the rest of the nation in industrial construction with nearly 40 million square feet of space underway by the end of June” – KTAR Legalizing ADUs would be nice but would only add a tiny bit to supply. Try fair property taxes and see what happens to the supply of homes.
49 Ways to Increase U.S. Home Ownership
Download PDF of the 49 Ways to Increase U.S. Home Ownership – August, 2024 version Below, “homes” refers to single-family homes and condos, and “landlords” refers to landlords of those homes. The government’s goal should be to increase free-and-clear home ownership, not to increase mortgage debt with the naive assumption that more debt will lead to more home ownership. That strategy has failed for more than half a century.
$475,000 = July Metro Phoenix Median Price
Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts – Weekly and Monthly. Up $5,000 from July 2023 Down $16,000 from July 2022 Up $140,000 from July 2020 Phoenix “Months of Supply” a year ago was 1.7 months. Now it’s 2.7 months. The median sold price of homes from 1,000 to 2,000 square feet in metro Phoenix in July was about the same price as 2.5 years ago, in January 2022. Prices of homes in this size range have been surprisingly flattish since last summer.
76 Secrets of U.S. Home Ownership - Conclusion
Buying a house for your family should not be a speculative investment, it should stabilize your family. It should be a way to buy and own a house for your family to live in for many years to come. Mortgages and the rest of the system should be designed as much as possible to make buying a house for your family a sure thing again instead of a gamble if you happen to buy in the wrong year.
76 Secrets of U.S. Home Ownership - Conclusion
Buying a house for your family should not be a speculative investment, it should stabilize your family. It should be a way to buy and own a house for your family to live in for many years to come. Mortgages and the rest of the system should be designed as much as possible to make buying a house for your family a sure thing again instead of a gamble if you happen to buy in the wrong year.
The Mechanics of Changing American Mortgages
Houses are, after all, the largest household expenditure by far and the largest part of American household wealth. Update the Fed mandate, give them the authority they need overall mortgage lenders, and let the Fed figure out how to do it like they do with their other mandates. This refined mandate, however, would be a huge increase in Fed responsibilities and it would make their job harder so they’d probably belittle any such change. Housing-Prudential Policies.
Solution #2 - Redesign U.S. Mortgages to Maximize Home Ownership Instead of Home Sales
Redesign U.S. mortgages to maximize the free-and-clear home ownership rate over the long run instead of maximizing home sales over the short run. See Secret #31. Redesign U.S. mortgages to protect home owners over the long run, not just banks and mortgage lenders. The focus of U.S. mortgage policy is on maximizing home sales in the short term without looking at the long-term effects of those policies on home ownership rates.
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