Kean Ming Tan

Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 18, 2026. (Photo: Reuters) Most crises do not generate new trends; instead, they force existing ones into the open. In that sense, the Iran war looks less like the start of a new cycle than an accelerant of one that has already been building. For years, excess global savings have depressed yields and supported a world of cheap capital. Today, the balance is changing.

The international monetary system has always rested on a single pillar -- the global reserve currency. Looking back over the past 100 years, first there was the gold standard -- the promise of value anchored in something finite, hard and scarce. In the early 1970s, the gold-backed system was replaced by the petrodollar, which thrived on energy dominance, geopolitical reach and the recycling of oil revenues through the US financial system.