Kelvin Chow

As the aviation industry taxis toward 2026, the global sustainable aviation fuel market is entering a pivotal transition year. While 2025 was defined by the rollout of binding mandates in Europe, 2026 is shaping up as a test of the industry's ability to scale supply amid divergent policy frameworks and intensifying competition for feedstocks. The targeted takeoff is hitting a tangible ceiling of a feedstock bottleneck that threatens to ground 2030 ambitions.

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, where our reporters bring you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026. Hydrotreated vegetable oil prices are expected to remain firm in 2026 as tightening mandates in Europe and the US underpin demand, while competition for feedstocks intensifies as new biorefineries start operating, Singapore-based traders and producers said.

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, in which our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026. Asia is on track to become one of the world's largest producing regions of sustainable aviation fuel, however, much of its output is still expected to be directed to Europe over the remainder of the decade, as government mandates remain limited and mostly voluntary, according to industry players.