Jun 09, 2026, 8:57 AM ET, , , , , , , , , Summary The S&P 500 appears statistically expensive, with 17 of 20 bear market signposts flashing caution, especially among the largest index constituents. I expect a challenging summer marked by macro headwinds — rising inflation, higher rates, and geopolitical risks — likely leading to a modest market drawdown. Historical data suggests post-rally pullbacks not following bear markets have been buying opportunities, with 6-12 month win rates of 90-100%.