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Articles by Marcus Nunes
The Revolution That Began With Money
Read today, its most striking feature is where the story starts: with a theory of how surprises in nominal spending move output. Unfortunately, by the time the revolution was complete, money had been written out of it. [Links are at the end] De Vroey, a Belgian economist at the University of Louvain, published his history of macroeconomics with Cambridge in 2016. Its organizing claim is that the field has had two eras, each with its own standards of what counts as a good argument.
Continuem babando ovo desse técnico limitado
Tópico popular Entenda as regras Publicado no Fórum do Meu Timão em 28/02/2026 às 22:34 Por Everton (@everton.1910) Dessa vez ele não teve um gol achado, é isso que acontece com um time mal treinado. Avalie este tópico do Fórum do Meu Timão visualizações 196 comentários 10 compartilharmentos 0
'O mais sanguinário dos capos do jogo do bicho', diz superintendente da PF sobre Adilsinho preso em Cabo Frio
A prisão de Adilson Oliveira Coutinho Filho, conhecido como Adilsinho, foi classificada como a captura “do mais sanguinário dos capos do jogo do bicho” pelo superintendente regional da Policia Federal no Rio, delegado Fabio Galvão. A declaração foi feita em vídeo divulgado após a operação que resultou na prisão do contraventor, nesta quinta-feira, em Cabo Frio, na Região dos Lagos.
Trump’s Dollarization Delusion
The Trump administration’s reported interest in promoting dollarization—encouraging foreign countries to abandon their own currencies in favor of the U.S. dollar—represents a fascinating paradox. An administration characterized by “America First” nationalism and hostility to international institutions is now considering a policy that would effectively extend American monetary sovereignty over foreign economies.
Money Fetish
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Brief notes on today´s CPI release
There are the “price analysts” (who think inflation is a price phenomenon). For example: Diane Swonk@DianeSwonk Inflation rises at 0.2% overall and 0.3% on core, in-line with market expectations. Orange prices surged on damages to crops due to Hurricane Milton. Hotel room rates were also up as with evacuations from Florida. Then there are those who think it is a monetary phenomenon but go about it in a partial and misleading way.
A monetary story of the post pandemic economy
Events and data in the last few days of July and first week of August caused havoc in markets, heightening fears of a recession. The FOMC is divided.
The Geometry of Inflation
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Comparing inflation post Covid-19 with previous episodes
For a time, drawing parallels with past inflation episodes was a widely played sport. Just to show how views changed radically in a short time, these two quotes from Blanchard are a good example. Blanchard in April 2020 The standard way of thinking about inflation is to look at the state of the labor market, inflation expectations, and shocks to commodity and food prices.
The Fed´s Shakespearean Moment
From the FOMC Minutes Federal Reserve officials said they were awaiting additional evidence that inflation is cooling and were divided on how long to keep interest rates elevated at their last policy meeting. Powell at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal: We are well aware that if we go too soon, that we can undo the good work we've done in bringing down inflation.
Monetary Mechanics
The question I will discuss is quite straightforward: Why, given an even more intense asset purchase by the Fed (QE) in 2008/09, there was no inflation following the Great Recession while inflation rose significantly in 2021/22? Although there was no increase in inflation following the Great Recession, many notable names, for different reasons, feared that it would happen. Some examples: Thanks for reading Money Fetish! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Is inflation stubborn?
The NYT has a piece authored by two of its best known economic writers; Toward the end, we get a clue to the title: Many economists think that inflation is still likely to slow further, in part because cooler new rent prices are still slowly feeding into official inflation data.
Is the economy approaching equilibrium?
“Everyone needs to understand that most of our elites, the ones who listen to Larry Summers in any event, which is all of them, have long believed that the solution to hard times is more hard times”. Catherine Johnson on Twitter @smaterparrot The concept of equilibrium I adopt is provided by the Dynamic AS/AD model. In this model, the Aggregate Demand curve is a rectangular hyperbola.
"Ladies & Gents, this is your Captain speeking. Runway ahead & can expect a smooth, or as some call it, a "soft landing"".
Some “passengers”, however, don´t believe the Captain. One example is Matt C Klein, the “Overshoot guy”, who says: Another is one of the Captain´s own officials, Governor (“navigator”) Christopher Waller, who wants to “further lift up the plane´s nose”: A couple of pictures go a long way to describe the “landing scenario” that the Captain faces.
Post C-19 Inflation: The story of a "bribe"
Recently, David Andolfatto published a post with the title “Constrained Efficient Inflation”. The word “efficient” bugged me for a while. If inflation was “efficient” it must mean that it was “used” to get some “benefit”. For that, inflation had to be “constrained”, because if “generalized” or “perpetuated”, no ”benefit” would be forthcoming. So, I tought, why not call inflation a “bribe”? After all, a “bribe”, as inflation, involves money. It also has to be “temporary”.
There are no lags in effect of monetary policy
In 1961, Friedman highlighted the idea that the impact of monetary policy on the economy could be subject to significant delays and uncertain timeframes. This means that changes in the money supply and interest rates might take a long time to influence economic variables, such as output, employment, and inflation, and the timing and magnitude of these effects could vary.
Pain: the name of the game
Joey Politanowrites: Setting the stage The “instrument” of pain” is interest rates, over which the Fed is thought of exerting control (or at least influence). However, 10 years ago Daniel Thornton of the St Louis Fed wrote “Monetary Policy: Why money matters and interest rates don´t.” From the introduction: I must mention there is a small group of economists that think only money matters. One such monetarist is Steve Hanke from John Hopkins.
History is not favorable to interest rate targeting
(Note: This piece was written in April 2010. Once again, the topic has gained relevance) Please subscribe and share to support my work Share Why was there a “Great Moderation” – a situation of stable RGDP growth and falling (low) and stable inflation? Was it luck (smaller macroeconomic shocks)? Inventory (just in time) technology? Economic (monetary) policy?
"It´s a kind of magic"
(Queen comes to mind) If you haven´t signed up, please do and help increase my reader base (and please share) Share I desperately wish I could think of something else, but can´t. It´s not inflation directly, but what´s behind it: Monetary Policy. More recently, the focus has moved from inflation to recession, viewed as the means through which inflation is controlled. Two examples. Bloomberg: Krugman: Is “pain” or “stag(nation)” a necessary part of controlling inflation?
Are inflation prospects improving?
To many, inflation is the virulent cancer spreading out very quickly over the economic fabric. In fact, even to those that do not mention money in there analysis, the world is fast going downhill. Two recent examples can be found by reading Roubini (The Gathering Stagflationary Storm) and Rogoff (The Growing Threat of Global Recession). I´m among those who firmly believe that inflation is a monetary (policy) phenomenon, not due to structural changes or even (usually) to fiscal policy.
Changing patterns in housing starts
In a recent post, Brad Delong writes “We Are Only Now at Normal, after 15 years of sub-normality in construction”: Single-family housing starts fluctuated around 1,200,000 a year for a generation and a half… Then the mid-2000s boom… Then the crash before the Great Recession… (Note: the housing crash did not cause the Great Recession—the economy had rebalanced out of housing and into other sectors before the recession began)… Then the most ænemic recovery in housing imaginable… Why so ænemic a...
The obsession with inflation has big drawbacks
This post from long ago covered the 2008 Fed Transcripts. It may have useful information for the present day. David Andolfato wrote a post: “2008”: Like many people out there, I am eagerly awaiting the release of the full transcripts of the Fed’s monetary policy meetings for 2008. When they come out (and it should be very soon), you will be able to find them here. (Note: it´s out) I expect that the media will have a field day with these.
How can you talk coherently about inflation?
When inflation flipped above the 2% target in April 2021, the world went “crazy”. “Teams” were formed as in “Team Temporary” and “Team Persistent”. At the close of the year, a bombshell in The Guardian: “We have a powerful weapon to fight inflation: price controls. It’s time we consider it”. This gave rise to many posts and tweets, both in favor and against. Two very good explainers are Joseph Politano´s “Are Rising Corporate Profit Margins Causing Inflation?
Monetary Policy in the two longest expansions
This piece from the AIER “Monetary Policy since the Great Recession” caught my eye for being weird. It starts off with: After the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the Great Recession it precipitated, the exceptionally sluggish recovery, and now the pandemic recession, the U.S. has essentially entered a new macroeconomic environment. For most of the 2010s there was a general consensus that inflation was not too much of a problem.
Which “austerity”? Fiscal or monetary?
Posted By: Marcus Nunes 13th October 2014 Add it all up, and there’s been a big fiscal tightening the past few years, something like 4 percent of potential GDP. Indeed, as Paul Krugman points out, real government spending per capita has been falling faster now than any time since the Korean War demobilization. And, as you can see above, all this austerity has been hurting GDP growth since 2011.
How´s the Fed doing in the make-up department?
The Fed´s new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy is all about “making-up”; be it about inflation below target or unemployment shortfalls. The Fed is not changing its ultimate mandate, which is to balance price stability with maximum employment. However, it has announced that it will no longer preemptively slow down the economy if the labor market begins to look tight and it will treat its 2% inflation target as an average. Why the new statement?
'Era uma pessoa que lutava contra os corruptos', diz parente de político executado em Seropédica
RIO - Um homem que constantemente sofria ameaças de morte, mas que não gostava de andar com seguranças. Assim é descrito pela família o empresário, piloto de aeronave e ex-candidato a prefeito de Seropédica, Miguel Ângelo Steffan de Souza, o Miguelzinho, de 51 anos. Assassinado a tiros no último domingo, no interior de uma padaria, em Seropédica, na Baixada Fluminense , o político foi enterrado, nesta segunda-feira, no Cemitério Santa Sofia, no mesmo município.
Ex-candidato a prefeito de Seropédica, executado no domingo, é sepultado
RIO - Um homem que constantemente sofria ameaças de morte, mas que não gostava de andar com seguranças. Assim é descrito pela família o empresário, piloto de aeronave e ex-candidato a prefeito de Seropédica, Miguel Ângelo Steffan de Souza, o Miguelzinho, de 51 anos. Assassinado a tiros no último domingo, no interior de uma padaria, em Seropédica, na Baixada Fluminense , o político foi enterrado, nesta segunda-feira, no Cemitério Santa Sofia, no mesmo município.
Jovem morto por bala perdida na Penha tinha o sonho de ser militar
RIO - Um tiro interrompeu o sonho do estudante Wanderson Santos, de 16 anos, de seguir a carreira militar. O adolescente dormia na casa de uma tia, no Morro da Fé, na Penha, na Zona Norte, no último sábado, e despertou com o barulho de tiros. Ao tentar fechar uma janela, acabou sendo atingido por um disparo. Ele ainda foi levado para o Hospital Getúlio Vargas, mas não resistiu e morreu.
Bebê de grávida baleada respira com ajuda de aparelhos
O bebê do sexo masculino, que nasceu após uma cesariana de emergência na maternidade do Hospital Albert Schweitzer, em Realengo, respira com ajuda de aparelhos. A mãe da criança, Dandara Helena Damasceno, de 21, deu entrada com um tiro na cabeça no hospital nesta segunda-feira e o parto foi feito quando a jovem já estava morta. — Ele respira com ajuda de aparelhos. Há necessidade de se fazer uma estabilização do quadro dele. Qualquer prognóstico agora é precoce.
Policial militar morto em assalto na Zona Norte é enterrado
RIO - O corpo do cabo da Polícia Militar Júlio Cesar Silva Oliveira, morto durante uma tentativa de assalto na quinta-feira, foi enterrado na tarde desta sexta-feira, no Cemitério Jardim da Saudade, em Sulacap, na Zona Oeste do Rio. As informações podem ser repassadas pelo WhatsApp ou Telegram (21) 98849-6099; pela mesa de atendimento do Disque-Denúncia (21) 2253-1177; ou por mensagens no Facebook: www.facebook.com/procurados.org. O anonimato é garantido.
Policial militar morto em tentativa de assalto na Zona Norte é enterrado
RIO - O corpo do cabo da Polícia Militar Júlio Cesar Silva Oliveira, morto durante uma tentativa de assalto na quinta-feira, foi enterrado na tarde desta sexta-feira, no Cemitério Jardim da Saudade, em Sulacap, na Zona Oeste do Rio. As informações podem ser repassadas pelo WhatsApp ou Telegram (21) 98849-6099; pela mesa de atendimento do Disque-Denúncia (21) 2253-1177; ou por mensagens no Facebook: www.facebook.com/procurados.org. O anonimato é garantido.
Squint, and the picture will look better | Historinhas on WordPress.com
HILSENRATH: Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. We’re here in Jackson Hole, talking about the economy. So give us your read: How is the U.S. economy doing right now? LOCKHART:I think the U.S. economy is expanding at a modest pace. The second quarter (gross domestic product) number—which was 1.1 (percent annual rate of growth), just revised slightly yesterday—I think overstates the slowdown or a slowdown.
Lars Svensson is understandably ‘furious’ with his former colleagues at the Riksbank
I´m at the airport ready to board for the US to attend my daughter´s wedding. But couldn´t avoid pointing to Svensson´s ‘ire’ towards the sort of monetary policy being practiced by the Riksbank. Svensson concludes his rant: The Riksbank has neglected the price-stability objective by allowing average inflation to undershoot the inflation target. This has led to higher average unemployment. The Riksbank has thereby not supported the objective of the general economic policy of high employment.
The Strange Saga Of Richard Fisher, FOMC Member - The Inspector Clouseau of Central Bankers (A guest post by Benjamin Cole)
Once again I´m pleased to host a guest post by, as David Glasner put it, “our esteemed Benjamin Cole” This time Benjamin applies his journalistic talents on a profile of Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. Read and enjoy. The images of the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, D.C. are suitably august, graced by stolid Roman pillars, marble floors and handsome sculptures of giant-sized eagles. It is a place of reserve and solemnity.
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