Mark Hamrick
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Chief Economic Analyst, The Hamrick Brief. Updates via Substack. LinkedIn Top Voice. Past Pres. of the National Press Club and SABEW. Ex-AP & Bankrate.
Articles by Mark Hamrick
The Long-Term Jobs Outlook
ALSO IN THIS ISSUE • California’s billionaire tax: Gov. Gavin Newsom now backs a measure that would cancel it. Is it the start of a backlash against inequality, or a one-time effort that falls short? • Tracking the economy you’re living: The HAPI™ and Misery Index show how jobs, inflation, and purchasing power connect to household finances. • Disney’s price of loyalty: A former CEO reveals how Disney kept raising pass prices without losing passholders.
Mark Hamrick (@thehamrickbrief)
What we learned about the economy this week: American consumers are spending more in dollar terms, but they aren’t getting more for the money. The holiday shopping season will soon be in full swing. Will inflation be the Grinch who holds Christmas hostage? We learned that retail sales rose in September, though much of the gain reflects higher prices at the pump (and elsewhere) rather than fuller shopping carts.
With The Latest Inflation Update, America’s Paychecks Are Losing More Ground
With The Latest Inflation Update, America’s Paychecks Are Losing More Ground In this edition of The Brief, Briefly… Misery Index: More economic pressure as inflation and unemployment rise The HAPI™: Less purchasing power as pay increases fall behind prices September brought a setback in both measures we track to connect the economy with the lives you’re actually living. More misery, less happy.
America Is Getting Richer. Who Feels Left Behind, and What Happens Next?
The richest 1% now hold a record 32.5% of U.S. household wealth Also in this edition of The Hamrick Brief: Due this week: The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will be announced. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The one thing Elon Musk told me that still sticks with me: Fifteen years after I asked why America innovates so well, his “least bad” answer remains worth considering.
Paychecks Are Losing the Race With Prices
The soft jobs report went over well on Wall Street. For Main Street, the economy is a different story Also in this weekly update: • Red light, green light, yellow light: We update The Hamrick Brief Dashboard tracking the U.S. economy and markets. • Q&A with veteran money manager and economist Hugh Johnson: The risks facing investors, including what to make of what’s happening with AI and soaring stocks.
Unemployment rises slightly, payroll gains fall short
Worker pay gains take a step back with inflation concerns remaining top-of-mind The Hamrick Brief, Briefly Breaking economic news doesn’t wait for Monday. This quick edition brings you the key numbers and what they mean ahead of our regular weekly brief. Key numbers: 4.1% unemployment and just 29,000 jobs added The job market slipped back into a familiar pattern in September: low-hire, low-fire, and low-confidence. Employers aren’t letting many people go, but they aren’t adding many either.
Voters Are Focused on Affordability
Mark Hamrick’s Post Mark Hamrick Mark Hamrick is an Influencer Founder & Chief Economic Analyst, The Hamrick Brief | Award-Winning Journalist & Broadcaster | Former President, National Press Club & SABEW | Speaker | Board Director 57m Layoffs remain subdued and hiring plans are running slightly ahead of last year’s pace. But September brings at least one new caution flag: the usual surge in seasonal hiring failed to materialize.
Voters Are Focused on Affordability
Also in this edition of the weekly newsletter: • Misery Index: Steady Reading, Little Relief: The index holds at 7.5, while inflation continues to squeeze purchasing power and real hourly earnings decline. • Travel Cash: Three Smart Moves: A Lisbon taxi lesson explains why travelers should carry some local currency, use bank ATMs and bring the right cards. • Then & Now: The Jetsons at 64: The futuristic cartoon had video calls, smartwatches, and robot helpers that are now part of our world.
The Hamrick Brief | Substack | Mark Hamrick
The last jobs report before Election Day arrives Friday. It will come as voters tell pollsters that the economy still doesn't feel right to them. Economists expect the September employment report to show employers added about 100,000 jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. If that happens, it would be a respectable month. And it would be about double the pace of the past year.
More Americans Are Working, but Their Paychecks Are Losing Ground
When markets move, they can surprise. And that's been the case with the recent surge in bond market yields, and that's flashing a warning sign including with mortgage rates. The impact will be to pressure the housing market even further, already strained by affordability issues. Mortgage News Daily’s real-time measure puts the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.45%, well above the 7.03% weekly average reported today by Freddie Mac.
More Americans Are Working, but Their Paychecks Are Losing Ground
Also in this edition: • Myth-busting: The Fed influences mortgage rates, but it does not control them. Three decades of data show why the two don’t always move together. • Then & Now: Fifty-seven years ago this month, a Long Island bank installed a machine that never closed. The first U.S. ATM changed what people expect from their bank. • Census Bureau data show that real median household income reached a record in 2025. Why, then, do so many Americans still feel financially squeezed?
The Brief, Briefly: The Federal Reserve hikes rates for the first time in 3 years
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing its target range to 3.75% to 4%. The vote was unanimous as the central bank seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target. That’s a target the Fed has missed for over five years. In its written statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said the rate increase “will support a timelier return” to the inflation goal.
The Federal Reserve Is Poised to Raise Rates. Here’s Why It Matters.
Credit cards and other variable-rate debt will feel it first. Mortgages are more complicated. While higher rates can restrain demand, but they cannot produce more oil, homes or goods. Which borrowing costs could rise almost immediately Why a Fed hike does not automatically determine mortgage rates What monetary policy can—and cannot—do about supply shock-driven inflation The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday.
Jean Chatzky: Retirement planning taught us how to save, but not how to put the nest egg to work.
Also in this week’s edition: Where Americans Are Moving: And Why the Moving Boom Is Losing Steam In praise of the BIC 4-Color pen: More than half a century after BIC launched its ingenious four-in-one pen, Mark is still sharing his with his wife, Jeanne. Then and now: More than six decades after Pop-Tarts reached store shelves, the toaster pastry remains a lesson in competitive pressure and product longevity.
The Federal Reserve looks poised to raise interest rates this week, marking a change from the outlook a short time ago. Policymakers meet Sept. 15-16, with the rate decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m… | Mark Hamrick
Mark Hamrick’s Post Mark Hamrick Mark Hamrick is an Influencer Founder & Chief Economic Analyst, The Hamrick Brief | Award-Winning Journalist & Broadcaster | Former President, National Press Club & SABEW | Speaker | Board Director 7h The Federal Reserve looks poised to raise interest rates this week, marking a change from the outlook a short time ago. Policymakers meet Sept. 15-16, with the rate decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern and a press conference to follow with Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Hollywood Notches a Record
On Monday, The Hamrick Brief said this summer looked like the second-best in box office history. Industry excpert Paul Dergarabedian’s final numbers, just released, say it’s actually the best one ever. Dergarabedian, the veteran box office analyst and a source I’ve known and trusted for years, reports that summer 2026 closed at $4.765 billion domestically, edging past the old record of $4.756 billion set back in 2013. Same four digits, just rearranged into a new high, as he put it himself.
Current home equity line of credit (HELOC) rates for September 2026
Table of contents Best HELOC rates How to shop for a HELOC Pros and cons of HELOCs Alternatives to a HELOC FAQs about HELOCs What are the current HELOC interest rates? LOAN TYPE AVERAGE RATE AVERAGE RATE RANGE HELOC 7.26% 3.99% - 11.60% Average home equity line of credit (HELOC) rates Bankrate’s National Average survey incorporates rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets.
Current home equity loan rates for September 2026
Table of contents National home equity loan interest rate trends - September 9, 2026 Home equity loan rates barely budge There wasn’t much movement in home equity rates this week. The average rate for the 15-year, $30,000 home equity loan rose one basis point to 8.22%, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. Meanwhile, the average 5- and 10-year loan rates were unchanged, holding at 8.13% and 8.28%, respectively, for the third week in a row.
Only 48% of Americans Say Capitalism Is Working
A near-record summer for Hollywood box office: What made it happen and what role does higher tickeet prices play? Conflicted about tipping: I don’t like the American system of tipping because it allows employers to pay workers less, yet I support it. Do you know how it came to be in the U.S.? Then and now: The man some people might first associate with a smash hit Broadway musical played an important role in the shaping of a young nation and its finances.
Willing to Work, But Invisible
Also in this week’s Brief: Ghosted: A new site, Did They Ghost You?, lets job seekers anonymously call out employers who go silent after an application or an interview. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Numbers I'll be watching this week Many American workers are becoming less optimistic about the job market. And recent history affirms that mindset. A few years ago, there were two job openings for… | Mark Hamrick
Numbers I'll be watching this week Many American workers are becoming less optimistic about the job market. And recent history affirms that mindset. A few years ago, there were two job openings for every unemployed person. Now, that’s more like 1:1. We don’t really need the job market to boom all the time, because that can lead to more inflation. We don’t want to see it collapse, either. July's employment report raised questions about the risks.
Waiting for Chair Warsh While Inflation Remains Elevated
Recapping economic data so far this week: Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the future. Housing demand weakened sharply despite slower price appreciation. Income rose faster than spending, signaling greater household caution. Inflation remains too high for the Federal Reserve to relax. (A quick note for our treasured paid subscribers: this edition of The Brief, Briefly is a bonus just for you.
Most Americans in Their 40s Are Sandwiched Between Kids and Aging Parents
Also in this week’s edition: Updates on the HAPI (The Hamrick American Prosperity Index) and the Misery Index: Unemployment and inflation both edged lower in July. But the HAPI weakened, as fewer adults were employed and average hourly pay failed to keep pace with prices. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
#weekahead #federalreserve #interestrates #markets
The sharp rise in long-term interest rates was one of the past week’s defining market stories. That’s newsworthy by itself. In addition, stock prices don’t typically react well to sharp upward movements in yields. The S&P 500 stock index was down 1.4% for the week, but is up 12% year-to-date. Investors are juggling persistent inflation, rising energy prices, heavy government borrowing and growing debt issuance to finance artificial-intelligence investment.
The HAPI Slips, Underscoring How Unevenly America’s Prosperity Is Shared
The Hamrick American Prosperity Index declined to 58.7 in July, from a revised 59.0 in June. How do we calculate the HAPI? It comes from data contained within the monthly employment report and the Consumer Price Index, both from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or better known as BLS within the U.S. Department of Labor.
Wall Street's Risk Managers Almost as Worried About AI as About War
Also in this week’s edition: Latest estimate on the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients: Now that we have an updated Consumer Price Index report, what’s the COLA estimate for January 2027? The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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Misery Index Falls to 7.5 -- But It Doesn't See Your Grocery Bill
My mission here is to translate what’s happening in the economy, connecting the dots between the data and the lives that all of us are actually living. Over the past few months, we’ve created the Hamrick American Prosperity Index (the HAPI, for short). It combines the percentage of the American population that is working with inflation-adjusted wage growth or decline. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication.
Inflation cools, the outlook remains fluid
The July Consumer Price Index offers some relief, but no all-clear on inflation. The government reports that prices at the retail level rose 0.1% from June and 3.4% from a year ago. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year over year. The report was largely as expected, meaning there was no unwelcome surprise from hotter inflation. So, I’m not so sure the lack of bad news is the same as good news. But let’s take a deeper dive.
Compare current mortgage rates for today
What type of home loan are you looking for? We'll help you find the best possible option for you. See Understanding mortgage rates 1. Compare top rates See low rates from over 100+ lenders. 2. Select a lender Get custom quotes in under 2 minutes. 3. See your savings You could take hundreds off your mortgage. how this works. National average mortgage rates over time Select a mortgage type to compare national averages with top offers on Bankrate. APRs not included.
The 7% Pay Premium for Job Changers
In this edition for our treasured subscribers: The 7% pay premium for job switchers. Changing jobs delivered the biggest raise in a year, even as July payrolls unexpectedly fell and hiring cooled broadly. Crypto exchanges: easy to use, hard to fully understand. A new Consumer Reports review of five major platforms finds gamified trading and weak risk disclosures, plus my own take on why I remain skeptical. Borrowing to get by.
The Brief, Briefly: Payrolls Contract in July Signalling Hiring Slowdown
Here’s my take on the just-released July jobs report: The real headline is the weakness in payrolls. The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. On top of that, May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Over the past three months, payroll growth has averaged only about 20,000 jobs a month, averaging 61,000 in 2026 so far. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
A note to my friends in journalism: I'm still here, and still glad to help! I'm continuing my ongoing analysis of the economy, from the job market to the Federal Reserve to housing (and beyond)… | Mark Hamrick
A note to my friends in journalism: I'm still here, and still glad to help! I'm continuing my ongoing analysis of the economy, from the job market to the Federal Reserve to housing (and beyond), and I'm still doing plenty of radio, TV, and print interviews. If a story needs context on what the numbers actually mean for people's lives, I'm happy to talk. I'm also posting here as I had before. A practical note on reaching me. I'm in the process of standing up a website, HamrickBrief.com.
Why housing is an example of the K-shaped economy
This week: why real estate has become a story of two Americas, certain hot metros soaring in value while towns close to my heart like Coffeyville, Kansas, and Niagara Falls, New York don’t fare nearly so well. We also look at the anniversary of an air traffic controllers’ strike that broke union power 45 years ago this week and shapes today’s labor market. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Numbers I'll be watching this week: Friday's jobs report. The Labor Department releases the July employment report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed expect payrolls grew by roughly 90,000,… | Mark Hamrick
Numbers I'll be watching this week: Friday's jobs report. The Labor Department releases the July employment report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed expect payrolls grew by roughly 90,000, better than June's 57,000 gain and modest by historical standards. The unemployment rate is expected to stay close to 4.2%.
Join my new subscriber chat
Today I’m announcing a brand new addition to my Substack publication: The Hamrick Brief subscriber chat. This is a conversation space exclusively for subscribers—kind of like a group chat or live hangout. I’ll post questions and updates that come my way, and you can jump into the discussion. Get the Substack app by clicking this link or the button below. New chat threads won’t be sent sent via email, so turn on push notifications so you don’t miss conversation as it happens.
This economy can be hard to read, and the Federal Reserve isn't making things any easier. Start with jobless claims: new claims at 197,000 last week, up a bit but still historically low, and… | Mark Hamrick
This economy can be hard to read, and the Federal Reserve isn't making things any easier. Start with jobless claims: new claims at 197,000 last week, up a bit but still historically low, and continuing claims have run below year-ago levels for 25 straight weeks. Employers aren't laying off in alarming numbers, while a single job cut can be devastating to individuals and households. Many who lose a job are taking longer to find one. Q2 GDP grew just 1.5%, below expectations.
The Brief, Briefly: The Fed Stands Pat On Interest Rates
The decision by the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate, unchanged is as expected. The U.S. central bank is standing pat with no rate change. That means the target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
I’ve known National Digital Roundtable Chairman Anthony since the early days of his successful company, Social Driver, so I'm especially grateful for his invitation to join this thoughtful… | Mark Hamrick
What if the new gatekeepers of information are not gatekeepers at all? That was one of the questions we wrestled with during our latest National Digital Roundtable / Social Driver discussion at The Brookings Institution, thanks to our friends at The Hamilton Project. Who determines which ideas reach us now? Journalists? Creators? The Algorithm? AI assistants? Funders? One wise person in the room reminded us: audiences may not perceive these distinctions the way those of us in communications do.
100 Days Out, Voters Are Grading the Economy Poorly
The Lead: Affordability remains the top economic story of 2026, and with the midterms fewer than 100 days away, it’s fast becoming the top political story too. A new Economist/YouGov poll finds nearly four in ten voters name inflation, prices or jobs as their most pressing concern, sentiment that’s dragging on the president’s approval and giving Democrats an edge on the generic ballot.
Numbers I’ll Be Watching This Week The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the line on interest rates when its meeting wraps Wednesday afternoon. The real story will be what Chair Kevin Warsh says… | Mark Hamrick
Numbers I’ll Be Watching This Week The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the line on interest rates when its meeting wraps Wednesday afternoon. The real story will be what Chair Kevin Warsh says and what he declines to say. Warsh has not been one to hand markets an easy roadmap, so that the news conference may carry as much weight as the policy statement. Many observers believe the Fed will deliver a rate hike in future months because of persistent inflation. Monday: Durable-goods orders.
Here amid the would-be dog days of summer, this week's economic calendar is thin. For those of us who are eager for new data, that’s akin to having no food in the fridge. Here's what's on it as we… | Mark Hamrick
Here amid the would-be dog days of summer, this week's economic calendar is thin. For those of us who are eager for new data, that’s akin to having no food in the fridge. Here's what's on it as we look ahead to next week's FOMC meeting, where no change of rates is expected. -Monday/today: Conference Board Leading Economic Index, 10 a.m. ET, covering June. The LEI rose for a second straight month in May, so this reading shows whether that modest improvement held.
Americans Are Still Working. Many Are Not Getting Ahead as Easily
Every week, I try to explain some things about the economy that actually show up in daily life, not just on Wall Street. This week we update HAPI, take a skeptical look at betting markets treated as odds, offer a practical mid-year financial checkup, and check in on Social Security’s cost-of-living outlook. Thanks for spending part of your week with me.
Mark Hamrick (@thehamrickbrief)
More data out today. Here’s where things stand: • Jobless claims: Job market remains stable with initial claims falling to 208,000 last week, below forecasts and to the lowest since May, and continuing claims eased too. Companies aren’t hiring aggressively, but they aren’t cutting either. That balance remains the labor market’s story. • June retail sales: softer headline, stronger reality. The government’s report showed spending up just 0.2%, below what was expected.
The Brief, Briefly
This week’s inflation dual reports delivered some encouraging news: inflation cooled more than expected. Tuesday’s CPI showed consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, bringing annual headline inflation down to 3.5% from 4.2%. A day later, the June PPI reinforced the trend. Wholesale prices fell 0.3% last month, and May’s initially reported 1.1% increase was revised down to 0.6%. On an annual basis, wholesale inflation slowed to 5.5% from 6.0% in May. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication.
Compare current mortgage rates for today
What type of home loan are you looking for? We'll help you find the best possible option for you. See Understanding mortgage rates 1. Compare top rates See low rates from over 100+ lenders. 2. Select a lender Get custom quotes in under 2 minutes. 3. See your savings You could take hundreds off your mortgage. how this works. National average mortgage rates over time Select a mortgage type to compare national averages with top offers on Bankrate. APRs not included.
Compare 30-year mortgage rates today
National average mortgage rates over time Select a mortgage type to compare national averages with top offers on Bankrate. APRs not included.
The Survival Skill For This Time of Rapid Change
This week: Along with the lead, we look at the economy, including a softer jobs report colliding with a newly hawkish Fed, the housing market underperforming, and the anniversary of Disneyland’s challenging 1955 opening offers a lesson in what real innovation and adaptation look like. Plus, my own road from credit card debt to a strong credit score, a lesson on how we can change. Volatility. Disruption. Innovation. Adaptation. The Hamrick Brief is a reader-supported publication.
The spring home selling season just wrapped up, and there wasn't much spring in its step. June's existing-home sales report puts an exclamation point on a season that never really gained momentum… | Mark Hamrick
The spring home selling season just wrapped up, and there wasn't much spring in its step. June's existing-home sales report puts an exclamation point on a season that never really gained momentum. Sales slipped 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, one of the weakest June readings in roughly 15 years outside the brief pandemic shutdown. Before mortgage rates surged, annual sales above 5 million were commonplace.
Compare 30-year mortgage rates today
National average mortgage rates over time Select a mortgage type to compare national averages with top offers on Bankrate. APRs not included.
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