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Articles by Matthew Barnett
Life after work
Matthew Barnett, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil October 21, 2025 It’s natural to feel anxious as we approach the inevitable automation of all human labor. Economic theory suggests that full automation will cause wages to collapse, potentially below subsistence level: the bare minimum needed to sustain human life. Yet the full automation of the economy will probably also make most people vastly better off.
The future of AI is already written
Matthew Barnett, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil October 6, 2025 Innovation often appears as a series of branching choices: what to invent, how to invent it, and when. In our case, we are confronted with a choice: should we create agents that fully automate entire jobs, or create AI tools that merely assist humans with their work? Upon closer examination, however, it becomes clear that this is a false choice.
Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R&D
A popular view about the future impact of AI on the economy is that it will be primarily mediated through AI automation of R&D. In some form or another, this view has been expressed by many influential figures in the industry: In his essay “Machines of Loving Grace”, Dario Amodei lists five ways in which AI can benefit humanity in a scenario where AI goes well. He considers biology R&D, neuroscience R&D, and economics R&D as three of these ways.
AGI could drive wages below subsistence level
Historically, many have feared that automation would lead to mass unemployment and lower wages. Yet, despite massive improvements in automation in the last two centuries, average wages have risen, living standards have improved, and high unemployment has not become a persistent, long-term issue as many had expected.
GPT-4 takes Bryan Caplan's midterm and gets an A
On January 9th, a little over two months ago, Bryan Caplan wrote, I was surprised that this was Caplan’s reaction to a computer program receiving a D on one of his exams. For a long time, it was considered extremely hard to get computers to comprehend even basic sentences. Ten years ago, the state of the art in language modeling was pitiful. You usually couldn’t get an AI to spit out a coherent answer to a question on an economics exam, much less a correct answer.
Five years in, Opportunity Zones are boosting communities
Call it the tax cut that wasn't. When the Opportunity Zone tax incentive was signed into law under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, critics were quick to label it “just another tax cut for the rich.” But on the fifth anniversary of its passage, a different picture has emerged: instead of concentrating benefits on the rich, opportunity zones are attracting investments into low-income communities across the nation.
Charities are feeling inflation's sting
This Christmas season, people have been feeling their wallets severely restricted by inflation . The cost of meat, eggs, milk, and gasoline has skyrocketed, such that people are enjoying less of these products. There is no joy in President Joe Biden’s world now, which is the way the Left wants it. However, basic living costs are not the only things affected by inflation. During the holidays, people often find it in their hearts to help their place of worship or a favorite charity.
What Republicans should learn from 2022
The past year was supposed to be a Republican revival of sorts, yet it turned out to be an utter disappointment. Republicans barely clinched a House majority and failed to take back the Senate, even handing Democrats an extra seat in the upper chamber, despite President Joe Biden’s record low approval ratings, growing economic pain, a historic border crisis, and the Left’s continued lurch toward cultural insanity.
This Christmas, help others find their miracle
This Christmas is going to be my best. It’s true that many people romanticize the Christmas season and hope they’ll have the best one ever. Perhaps we think everyone in the family will behave and get along this year or that the gift we’ve always wanted will be under the tree. But so often, we are disappointed when Christmas finally comes around.
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