Matthew Barnett

Matthew Barnett, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil October 21, 2025 It’s natural to feel anxious as we approach the inevitable automation of all human labor. Economic theory suggests that full automation will cause wages to collapse, potentially below subsistence level: the bare minimum needed to sustain human life. Yet the full automation of the economy will probably also make most people vastly better off.

Matthew Barnett, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil October 6, 2025 Innovation often appears as a series of branching choices: what to invent, how to invent it, and when. In our case, we are confronted with a choice: should we create agents that fully automate entire jobs, or create AI tools that merely assist humans with their work? Upon closer examination, however, it becomes clear that this is a false choice.

A popular view about the future impact of AI on the economy is that it will be primarily mediated through AI automation of R&D. In some form or another, this view has been expressed by many influential figures in the industry: In his essay “Machines of Loving Grace”, Dario Amodei lists five ways in which AI can benefit humanity in a scenario where AI goes well. He considers biology R&D, neuroscience R&D, and economics R&D as three of these ways.